Ohio redistricting thread

[I’m not Stu]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

Yeah, look at my DRA link.

Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.

doesn't require that.  Just that a whole county is present in the district.

Did you follow these rules? 65 of Ohio’s 88 counties cannot be split at all. 18 of Ohio’s counties can be split only once. Only five counties can be split twice. So under this particular proposal, a county cannot be split three different times.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

[Idaho Conservative]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats.  

You split Cincinnati. That’s an illegal map.

Wrong

You kept Cincinnati whole?

Yeah, look at my DRA link.

Cincinnati is whole, but I still thought the law requires it to be in a district located entirely in Hamilton County.

doesn't require that.  Just that a whole county is present in the district.

Did you follow these rules? 65 of Ohio’s 88 counties cannot be split at all. 18 of Ohio’s counties can be split only once. Only five counties can be split twice. So under this particular proposal, a county cannot be split three different times.

pretty sure

[Idaho Conservative]

My take on a fair map. 
6 safe R (R+6 or greater) Cinci suburbs, Lima, western Columbus, Athens, Northern Columbus, Canton
2 lean R (R+3-5) Dayton, Cleveland's eastern suburbs
4 highly competitive (D+2-R+2) Toledo, Lake shore, Akron, Youngstown
1 lean Dem (D+3-5) Cincinnati
2 safe Dem (D+6 or greater) Columbus, Cleveland
I would've made the Akron seat dem leaning except to keep Youngstown and Warren together, I had to move OH-14 into Cuyahoga county and Akron had to take in rural areas.  But it's very competitive.
The outcome is tilt R, but communities of interest are kept together well and there are 7 competitive seats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3a4c5cf7-7bdd-47b5-ad79-7d52e4ec2485

[TJ in Oregon]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Perhaps the best answer to stop gerrymandering is to force binding drafts of maps to be made 8 years prior to the census

Of course Mr. Wolf's opinion is simply whatever increases the number of Democrats elected.

[lfromnj]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Perhaps the best answer to stop gerrymandering is to force binding drafts of maps to be made 8 years prior to the census

Of course Mr. Wolf's opinion is simply whatever increases the number of Democrats elected.

Yup if he saw this map in 2012 he would be perfectly happy with it besides maybe the Cleveland suburban district. Now he would call it a GOP gerrymander.

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

[lfromnj]

CV could you show district numbers or colors ?

[cvparty]

CV could you show district numbers or colors ?

updated

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

only large counties can be split. look up the specifics

[cvparty]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

only large counties can be split. look up the specifics

um no? from XIX.02: "of the eighty-eight counties in this state, sixty-five counties shall be contained entirely within a district, eighteen counties may be split not more than once, and five counties may be split not more than twice." even RRH's awful albeit legal map splits a number of small counties. stop trolling lol come back when you've actually read the rules

and side note your "fair" map cuts up COIs like nobody's business and violates article xix section 1 3a of the state constitution. 12-3 trump? where's that ~statewide vote~ energy you had with california

[Idaho Conservative]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

Some of those county splits are illegal.  My fair map only has 3 extra county splits (Hamilton, Franklin, and Cuyahoga will be split on any map) and the smallest county I split is Medina county, popuation: 177,000.  A lot of what shapes the districts on the Ohio map is the county math, some combos don't work.  
On my R gerrymander map, the smallest county cut is Trumbull, over 200k population. 

can you point out specifically which splits are illegal? i read the rules before drawing the map, pretty sure i followed them so idk what you're referring to

Jackson county.  not the only one tho

um what part of the amendment precludes that split? or any of the other allegedly illegal splits

only large counties can be split. look up the specifics

um no? from XIX.02: "of the eighty-eight counties in this state, sixty-five counties shall be contained entirely within a district, eighteen counties may be split not more than once, and five counties may be split not more than twice." even RRH's awful albeit legal map splits a number of small counties. stop trolling lol come back when you've actually read the rules

and side note your "fair" map cuts up COIs like nobody's business and violates article xix section 1 3a of the state constitution. 12-3 trump? where's that ~statewide vote~ energy you had with california

At this point, it is unclear which counties can be split.  But I had read that it was only the most populated ones.  The amendment does include language that it will have to be determined not just how many counties can be split, but also which. 

Section 3A is up for interpretation.  Depend on who controls the court basically.  My fair map keeps communities together, what you said is hogwash.  I guess Democrats count as a community of interest to you lol.  Also my California map (totally irreverent to this discussion btw) gave republicans fewer seats than their statewide vote share, due to political geography.  My Ohio map does the same to democrats.  Just how the cookie crumbles. 

[cvparty]

At this point, it is unclear which counties can be split.  But I had read that it was only the most populated ones.  The amendment does include language that it will have to be determined not just how many counties can be split, but also which.  

literally every map in this thread but yours has small county splits and there's nothing in the constitution that prohibits it, so stop claiming it's illegal because you "had read that" from an unnamed source as opposed to the actual state constitution

My fair map keeps communities together, what you said is hogwash.  I guess Democrats count as a community of interest to you lol.  Also my California map (totally irreverent to this discussion btw) gave republicans fewer seats than their statewide vote share, due to political geography.  My Ohio map does the same to democrats.  Just how the cookie crumbles.  

this whole paragraph might be the most foolish thing you've ever said. there's so many things wrong with your map, but any map that separates delaware and franklin counties is already bad. i drew my map with partisan data off, it gives trump 60% of the districts, and by no means maximizes dem votes (see: akron, elyria, youngstown) nor GOP ones so and my point is you very clearly draw with a republican bias to try to "correct" (to an extent) states with a dem-favoring geography (CA), but in states with a neutral or GOP-favoring geography, you suddenly don't care about the statewide vote and actually gerrymander even more, all while claiming to preserve unnamed COIs every time. there is no consistency there except wanting republicans to win. you know it's kind of disappointing that you don't make any genuine contributions to the whole redistricting conversation

[Nyvin]

11-2-2 map
1: Chabot/Trump+21/safe R
2: Wenstrup/Trump+5/lean R
3: Beatty/Clinton+44/safe D
4: Jordan/Trump+36/safe R
5: Latta or Gibbs/Trump+15/safe R
6: Johnson/Trump+21/safe R
7: Ryan/Trump+2/lean D, tossup by 2024
8: Davidson/Trump+36/safe R
9: Kaptur or Latta/Trump+14/tossup if Kaptur runs, safe R if she doesn't
10: Turner/Trump+11/likely R
11: Fudge/Clinton+65/safe D
12: Balderson/Trump+24/safe R
13: Gonzalez/Trump+14/safe R
14: Joyce/Trump+11/likely R
15: Stivers/Trump+22/safe R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/02d2d295-0c22-4da9-917b-a228ca57994d
Compliant and relatively clean map.  While PVI numbers are close in a lot of the districts, Trump won 11/15 seats by a double digit margin.  Only 2 Clinton seats. 

Again, there's practically no legal argument favoring this kind of map.  There's no reason Meigs or Lawrence counties should be in the same district with the Columbus suburbs (or with Columbus itself),  or why Toledo should be paired with Darke county.

If put before a court this map would get struck down easily.  The other provisions in the reform aren't just there to look pretty.

[Badger]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

This is actually a pretty good map. It keeps COIs rather intact, and it gives Democrats at least the opportunity to recover some seats if they can win him back Obama - Trump voters. If they can't, they probably don't deserve to pick up many more seats than this map allows. I would love to know what Sherrod Brown's numbers under this map were.

Can I also just say that, while occasionally throwing out the occasional Just for kicks extreme gerrymander Maps is one thing, to have folks like Idaho conservative, krazen back in the day, and others aggressively and repeatedly push for extreme gerrymander favoring their party like rrh does strikes me as a grotesquely tasteless middle finger towards democracy at best, and reading it on these threads at worse sounds like some type of political snuff porn.

[lfromnj]

So what's everyones opinion of me copying stephen wolf's map but for 2020? It's from a Democrat oroginal

[I’m not Stu]

Delaware and Franklin both contain Columbus. Is that not an important COI?

[lfromnj]

Delaware and Franklin both contain Columbus. Is that not an important COI?

Sure but so does Fairfield county. It's really small portions anyway and the ohio issue 1 doesn't see it as a city split if its in a different county.

[I’m not Stu]

Other than Chabot, who is the most vulnerable? Balderson?

[Badger]

Delaware and Franklin both contain Columbus. Is that not an important COI?

Sure but so does Fairfield county.

This. Plus the city of Pickerington, effectively the Second City of Fairfield County, has a tiny sliver of a few apartment complexes in Franklin County. Then there is Reynoldsburg, a not insignificant suburb of Columbus, which is divided into Franklin Fairfield and licking counties. Then there's the city of Dublin, the second biggest City at least partially in Franklin County behind Columbus, extends into Union and Delaware Counties. Westerville expands into Delaware, New Albany into Licking County, and the list goes on from there. Not to mention that the internal municipality lines in Franklin County are so so messed up, including at least one Township that I swear to God has two non-contiguous portions that aren't even connected by a lake or something. They just refuse to be annexed because they fear losing their independent police protection as it includes some rough neighborhoods.

My point is trying to design communities of Interest strictly along both county lines and municipality lines in central Ohio is effectively impossible because the boundaries are so jiggered up.

EDIT: I'll also add that County lines are hardly indicative of communities of Interest anymore. I'll go back to the example of Pickerington which is 98% in Fairfield County. It and its surrounding Township, though, are surely a Columbus suburb and have far more connection to Columbus and Franklin County than it does the county seat down in Lancaster, or indeed the rest of Fairfield County. People around there subscribe to the Columbus Dispatch , not the Lancaster Eagle Gazette. If they head off for shopping or a night out, the vast majority of the time they will head into Columbus for the malls of the Easton the shop rather than Lancaster which has little in the way of amenities. Columbus is generally a closer drive for most parts of the area via 70 or 33 then downtown Lancaster. Lancaster is the place where such local residents go if they have to go to a government office or court for some reason, plus a limited few who may have jobs in Lancaster, though far far more work in Columbus and Franklin County if they work outside of the Pickerington area. Likewise, Lancaster has even less connection the Pickerington in terms of jobs, commonality of community interest, Services, Etc.

For perspective, that corner of the county also includes the portions of Reynoldsburg, Columbus, and Canal Winchester that are in Fairfield County. Those also help to give the community a heavily Columbus- Centric Outlook. Also, the cultural and economic disconnect between Lancaster and the Violet Township portion of Fairfield County Sheriff for most of the rest of Fairfield county is well, albeit with some expected minor closer connections for the small portion of the county lying just outside Violet Township limits.

I'm not saying there's some unofficial Berlin wall, or even an 8 Mile Road like in Detroit, utterly separating Violet Township communities culturally and economically from the rest of Fairfield County. However, if we were looking strictly at true communities of interest for redistricting it would absolutely make sense to include Violet Township, including Pickerington, as part of a Franklin County District , county lines be damned. And I use this as only one example of what can apply to probably hundreds of communities around Ohio but for redistricting laws giving inordinate attention and weight to County boundaries.

[Badger]

Other than Chabot, who is the most vulnerable? Balderson?

Maybe only because since he lives in Zanesville, he would have a three-way Deathmatch between two other incumbents, Bill Johnson and Bob Gibbs. As pretty much the only part of balderson bass left in the District would be his home in Muskingum County, and Gibbs would pretty much only have his even smaller home base in Holmes County, Johnson would be a strong bet to win that race.

Either he or Gibbs may want to carpet bag slightly West to run in the new 4th District. I haven't taken the time to see if its proposed boundaries here include the home of any current Republican congressman. If not, balderson would have a good chance of winning any primary here as the eastern half of the district includes much of his current District and at least portions of his Old State Senate District. Dibs would have some part of his congressional district in the northeastern part of the district it appears, but while balderson is hardly a shining star, Gibbs has always struck me is an overrated entity. So gun to my head, Balderson probably wins a primary for the 4th District, again assuming there isn't yet another incumbent living somewhere within its proposed boundaries.

To answer the question, with his home in Holmes County being siphoned off into the 6th District, but with effectively nothing else of his old District being included in the new 6th, I would say Gibbs would be the most vulnerable incumbent because he'd have to carpet bag to avoid probably losing the primary.