Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

I drew it based on an algorithm, which except as a tie breaker, ignores partisan effects. You can characterize it as you like, and opine that the real line drawers have their own priorities, and that is fine. My "generous" comment was based on what the Pubs would think, not what you would think.

What I was doing was an exercise that because based on neutral rules, that make sense, it becomes harder to characterize as an unfairly partisan based on partisan motives. Arguing what is partisan or unfair in the abstract is something I just do not do anymore. I like to draw maps based on exogenous neutral rules and see how they play out, and how they will fly in court, or should.

The partisan lean image was wrong because it used a composite number rather than the 2020 Trump number. And thus the Dems are on the cusp of 2 Columbus area CD's in any event.

If you want to draw a map as to what you think the Pubs will do with a friendly court go for it.

I would draw one, but sadly Dave’s redistricting app and my computer don’t see eye to eye so all I can do is comment on other people’s maps.  It is very frustrating

Re: Franklin County: surely community of interest is a vital part of any neutral redistricting principles?

Also, I think you double-bunked Balderson and Johnson as well. 

The law actually requires that as much as Columbus as possible be in one CD. So it is, with almost all of the balance in another CD. The map nests two CD’s in the Columbus metro area and the third covers the the balance, while minimizing the erosity. The algorithm was developed  years ago and not reversed engineered. As it turns out the huge swing to the Dems in the high income Columbus suburbs has made the partisan difference rather small with the Dems getting their two seats rather soon.

Of course the Pubs won’t be going there. The Dems will be shut out. The exercise was about drawing a map that is bullet proof legally in my view.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

Not true. The current map was passed by the legislature in March 2022 and thrown out by the old moderate court last July. If the court overturns the decision the existing congressional map just comes back into place.

[Nyvin]

The state supreme court declared the current map unconstitutional but a federal court ordered that it be used for the 2022 cycle due to the time constraints of the state primary.

So basically the federal court ordered something that was declared illegal be used for 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

Not true. The current map was passed by the legislature in March 2022 and thrown out by the old moderate court last July. If the court overturns the decision the existing congressional map just comes back into place.

If the court overturns the old court's ruling, the current map would stay in place but only for 2024 because the map was passed with no bipartisan support meaning the map is only in place for 4 years when passed.

If the court upholds the old court's ruling, the OH GOP gets to redraw but because this new court is more friendly, they'd likely go for a more aggressive gerrymander. Honestly, if this happens, it may help embolden efforts to get a true redistricting commission on the ballot in 2024. Theoretically, a pretty solid 13-2 map is possible under current rules, but it's unclear if the political willpower is there for that both because of the weird "moderate" coalition in the OH State House, and because it'd mean some GOP incumbents would be forced to take in territory they don't want to.

So it's weird because the court upholding the old court's ruling declaring the map unconstitutional is the better ruling for the GOP, but both rulings mean a redraw is inevitable at some point

[ProgressiveModerate]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

[Nyvin]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

[Oryxslayer]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

Yes, this is the entire point of the vote which is occurring in a few months time to raise the standards of collecting signatures and the percentages needed to pass such amendments. The OH GOP know that an abortion initiative is in the pipe,  and a true independent redistricting commission (motivated by the follies of 2022) is not far behind, both of which should easily pass 50% based on precedent from other areas. 

Of course I wouldn't expect the upcoming vote to raise the thresholds to pass, but it's the only possible move as described above.  Voters don't like having power taken from them, and more conservative states saw voters clearly reject these type of initiatives in the higher turnout 2022 midterm environment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You guys realize that the State House Speaker, Jason Stephens, was elected by the entire OH House Democratic Caucus teaming up with ~1/3 of the OH House Republican Caucus to block the other 2/3s of the OH House Republican Caucus from electing the Republican leadership team, right?  A major part of that deal was that Stephens would work extremely closely with Democrats on redistricting.  Democrats could kill Stephens’ speakership at any time by pulling their support if he tries to renege.  There is no appetite among the Republicans who matter in the State House for the sort of maximalist RRH-fantasy 10-2 maps that folks are posting.

Plus, Ohio Republicans in general aren’t in the same sort of “f*** you” mood over redistricting that NC Republicans are or rather, there is still real fear that a non-BS fair redistricting amendment might get passed.  

While neither is the most likely outcome, even a least change map is more likely than a 13-2 at this point.  My guess is we end up with a 10-3-2 map with a competitive-ish seat that is still Republican-leaning enough seat to sink Sykes (and trending R enough that it won’t stay competitive much longer) and a seat that easily flips once Kaptur retires.

Also bare in mind that any map that puts most of Wood County in Kaptur’s district, the city of Troy and/or its southern suburbs in either Turner’s district or the same district as Urbana, puts Zanesville and Marietta in the same district, or puts Rocky River in a non-Safe R seat is a non-starter as it will piss off the various Republican Congressmen.  Bowling Green, Urbana, Dayton, Troy and its southern suburbs, Rocky River, Hillsboro, Marietta, Zanesville, South Russell, and whatever south or west Columbus precinct Mike Carey lives in all need to be in different Safe R districts.  

[MaxQue]

You guys realize that the State House Speaker, Jason Stephens, was elected by the entire OH House Democratic Caucus teaming up with ~1/3 of the OH House Republican Caucus to block the other 2/3s of the OH House Republican Caucus from electing the Republican leadership team, right?  A major part of that deal was that Stephens would work extremely closely with Democrats on redistricting.  Democrats could kill Stephens’ speakership at any time by pulling their support if he tries to renege.  There is no appetite among the Republicans who matter in the State House for the sort of maximalist RRH-fantasy 10-2 maps that folks are posting.

Plus, Ohio Republicans in general aren’t in the same sort of “f*** you” mood over redistricting that NC Republicans are or rather, there is still real fear that a non-BS fair redistricting amendment might get passed.  

While neither is the most likely outcome, even a least change map is more likely than a 13-2 at this point.  My guess is we end up with a 10-3-2 map with a competitive-ish seat that is still Republican-leaning enough seat to sink Sykes (and trending R enough that it won’t stay competitive much longer) and a seat that easily flips once Kaptur retires.

Also bare in mind that any map that puts most of Wood County in Kaptur’s district, the city of Troy and/or its southern suburbs in either Turner’s district or the same district as Urbana, puts Zanesville and Marietta in the same district, or puts Rocky River in a non-Safe R seat is a non-starter as it will piss off the various Republican Congressmen.  Bowling Green, Urbana, Dayton, Troy and its southern suburbs, Rocky River, Hillsboro, Marietta, Zanesville, South Russell, and whatever south or west Columbus precinct Mike Carey lives in all need to be in different Safe R districts.  

Technically, the House Speaker + the two Dem appointments only adds to 3/7 and is still beaten by the Senate Speaker appointment + DeWine + Attorney General + LaRose (who will push for maximal gain to help his Senate primary campaign).

[Mr.Phips]

You guys realize that the State House Speaker, Jason Stephens, was elected by the entire OH House Democratic Caucus teaming up with ~1/3 of the OH House Republican Caucus to block the other 2/3s of the OH House Republican Caucus from electing the Republican leadership team, right?  A major part of that deal was that Stephens would work extremely closely with Democrats on redistricting.  Democrats could kill Stephens’ speakership at any time by pulling their support if he tries to renege.  There is no appetite among the Republicans who matter in the State House for the sort of maximalist RRH-fantasy 10-2 maps that folks are posting.

Plus, Ohio Republicans in general aren’t in the same sort of “f*** you” mood over redistricting that NC Republicans are or rather, there is still real fear that a non-BS fair redistricting amendment might get passed.  

While neither is the most likely outcome, even a least change map is more likely than a 13-2 at this point.  My guess is we end up with a 10-3-2 map with a competitive-ish seat that is still Republican-leaning enough seat to sink Sykes (and trending R enough that it won’t stay competitive much longer) and a seat that easily flips once Kaptur retires.

Also bare in mind that any map that puts most of Wood County in Kaptur’s district, the city of Troy and/or its southern suburbs in either Turner’s district or the same district as Urbana, puts Zanesville and Marietta in the same district, or puts Rocky River in a non-Safe R seat is a non-starter as it will piss off the various Republican Congressmen.  Bowling Green, Urbana, Dayton, Troy and its southern suburbs, Rocky River, Hillsboro, Marietta, Zanesville, South Russell, and whatever south or west Columbus precinct Mike Carey lives in all need to be in different Safe R districts.  

Technically, the House Speaker + the two Dem appointments only adds to 3/7 and is still beaten by the Senate Speaker appointment + DeWine + Attorney General + LaRose (who will push for maximal gain to help his Senate primary campaign).

The state officeholders (other than governor) only matter for the legislature redistricting I believe.

[GALeftist]

State officeholders do matter for congressional redistricting. If the legislature fails to pass a map with a bipartisan majority, then the commission (made up of the legislative leaders plus 3 statewide officeholders) gets a shot; only if they fail can the legislature pass a partisan map. The reason people think that is relevant is because DeWine made some vague comments about how maybe gerrymandering was a bad idea, but idk if I buy that he will side with the Dems on the commission.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

I see. I really hope there's a serious effort to get a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2024 and passed. Seems like so much emphasis is just going to an abortion initiative rn, and I worry it may completely overshadow any effort for redistricting commission.

[TML]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

I see. I really hope there's a serious effort to get a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2024 and passed. Seems like so much emphasis is just going to an abortion initiative rn, and I worry it may completely overshadow any effort for redistricting commission.

Note that the first hurdle would be a 60% ballot measure in August - if that ballot measure somehow passes, it would probably make this and other future proposed ballot measures more difficult. (As we speak now, there is an active effort to get people to vote down the August ballot measure.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

I see. I really hope there's a serious effort to get a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2024 and passed. Seems like so much emphasis is just going to an abortion initiative rn, and I worry it may completely overshadow any effort for redistricting commission.

Note that the first hurdle would be a 60% ballot measure in August - if that ballot measure somehow passes, it would probably make this and other future proposed ballot measures more difficult. (As we speak now, there is an active effort to get people to vote down the August ballot measure.)

Yeah, but I think that would hurt things like trying to protect abortion rights at the ballot box a lot more than something like a redistricting reform (most people tend to default to reflexively supporting the latter regardless of the particular proposal’s merits or lack thereof).

In any case, getting Democratic votes for whatever slightly more Republican-leaning and/or least change map the State House produces (my guess is that they start with least change map).  Meanwhile the Republican State Senate leader, Matt Huffman, is the sort who probably will produce if not a maximalist gerrymander than at the very least a significantly more Republican map than even the current gerrymander.  However, I doubt he’ll fight too much over congressional redistricting as long as Republicans end up the clear winners relative to their current position. 

Kaptur is helped tremendously by Latta’s selfish and lazy tendencies.  He has a lot of pull in both Houses of the state legislature (albeit not quite as much as he used to) and will fight like Hell to keep most of Wood County in a separate Safe R district from Kaptur’s seat even if it costs Republicans a house seat and he’d be a near lock in the new district.  He simply doesn’t care and has no interest in anything remotely resembling a competitive race for the rest of his career.  Both OH legislative Houses were already going to have to deal with this and with Stephens having to fight hard for a map that’s acceptable to OH House Dems if he and his affiliated ~1/3 of the OH House Republican want to remain in power, I could easily see Huffman agreeing to just leave Kaptur’s seat largely untouched, especially since she’s old and it’ll probably flip as soon as she retires anyway.

As for Landsman and Sykes, Matt Huffman (along with most non-Stephens faction Republicans, for that matter) is almost certainly going to insist on one of them being sacrificed as tribute.  It’s possible that there are enough Republican in the State Senate who don’t really care enough to get in a pissing match over this that we end up with a least change map, but I doubt it.  It’s possible and more likely than a maximalist 13-2 RRH fantasy gerrymander…but it sure isn’t how I’d bet. 

So Landsman or Sykes probably gets the axe.  I actually think much of the OH House Democratic Caucus would much rather throw Landsman to the wolves, but geography will save Landsman.  We may end up with Warren County being “liberated” and Landsman getting an all HamCo seat if it doesn’t force changes elsewhere that would inconvenience anyone in the Republican US House delegation.  We could also see a least change version of Landsman’s seat, but I highly doubt it gets more Republican.

That leaves Sykes as the one to be sacrificed and that area is trending Republican anyway (she only won b/c Republicans nominated a dumpster fire-tier candidate…whom they seem inexplicably intent on running again in 2024 for some reason).  This district will likely be redrawn as a technically competitive but still reliably Republican district (they did the same thing to Betty Sutton in 2012).  I imagine it’d just take swapping the Sykes precincts in Stark County for blood red Stark County and northern Tuscarawas County precincts (and maybe some from Noble County to round out the population if necessary) from OH-6.  The new district would be Republican enough (and rapidly trending Republican as well) that to sink Sykes while also being secure for even a weak incumbent in non-wave elections (and even then, it may just be Safe R for the rest of the decade). 

I think that would be enough to appease everyone.  Obviously, the Democrats from Summit County have to oppose it (or at least loudly complain) for optics reasons (the Sykes family is extremely well-connected and basically the first family of African-American Democratic politics in Akron and it’ll still be a major Republican gerrymander, but Democrats also know that while they have some real leverage, it is far from unlimited.  As Torie would say, this is a “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” situation.  They can likely force a map that keeps Kaptur in office until she dies, faces a true Republican wave, or decides to retire and keeps the Cincinnati seat in Democratic hands, but if they get greedy and say least change or bust then it could backfire.  Whether it’s State Senate Republicans or State House Democratic Caucus-Stephens faction coalition, if anyone digs in and throws such a temper-tantrum that this becomes DeWine’s problem, then it’s going to backfire for that side.

As for state legislative redistricting, we’re likely to see a maximalist Republican State Senate gerrymander and either an incumbent protection gerrymander or a map that helps State House Dems and Stephens Republicans while double-bunking or otherwise endangering some of Stephens’ most vocal and/or politically dangerous Republican foes.

Stephens and Huffman will be given wide latitude in drawing maps for their respective chamber.  That’s just how Ohio politics works.  Plus, DeWine and LaRose are party hacks who never had a truly independent thought in their lives (this is especially true of LaRose).  They’re not looking to rock the boat by asserting themselves, they’re looking for the path of least resistance that all important Republican players can live with.

[Torie]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

My critiques were in two categories: 1) things I care about that the legislature and Courts won’t (fair map issues like the Franklin County situation) and 2) things Republicans will care about.  You still double-bunked Balderson and Johnson, Turner and Davidson (or depending on where the latter runs, Davidson and Jordan).  You did address the Latta issue though and as you say, Wood County isn’t some blood-red Republican stronghold.

[Tekken_Guy]

One question I have is would the new Conservative OH Court majority have any ability to block a redistricting commission from getting on the ballot, or somehow strike it down as unconstitutional if successfully passed? No state courts have ever struck down a redistricting commission via ballot initiative before, but we have seen weak commissions such as that in UT made powerless by the state legislature.

In Ohio ballot initiatives add amendments to the state constitution, so there's no way for the state court to strike it down once passed.   They can block the measure from getting on the ballot though if it doesn't meet requirements.

In Utah initiatives are just made statutes that the legislature can adjust at will,  I guess officially the state court could strike down a statute passed by ballot measure, but it'd be weird to since they allowed the measure on the ballot in the first place.

I see. I really hope there's a serious effort to get a redistricting commission on the ballot for 2024 and passed. Seems like so much emphasis is just going to an abortion initiative rn, and I worry it may completely overshadow any effort for redistricting commission.

Note that the first hurdle would be a 60% ballot measure in August - if that ballot measure somehow passes, it would probably make this and other future proposed ballot measures more difficult. (As we speak now, there is an active effort to get people to vote down the August ballot measure.)

Yeah, but I think that would hurt things like trying to protect abortion rights at the ballot box a lot more than something like a redistricting reform (most people tend to default to reflexively supporting the latter regardless of the particular proposal’s merits or lack thereof).

In any case, getting Democratic votes for whatever slightly more Republican-leaning and/or least change map the State House produces (my guess is that they start with least change map).  Meanwhile the Republican State Senate leader, Matt Huffman, is the sort who probably will produce if not a maximalist gerrymander than at the very least a significantly more Republican map than even the current gerrymander.  However, I doubt he’ll fight too much over congressional redistricting as long as Republicans end up the clear winners relative to their current position. 

Kaptur is helped tremendously by Latta’s selfish and lazy tendencies.  He has a lot of pull in both Houses of the state legislature (albeit not quite as much as he used to) and will fight like Hell to keep most of Wood County in a separate Safe R district from Kaptur’s seat even if it costs Republicans a house seat and he’d be a near lock in the new district.  He simply doesn’t care and has no interest in anything remotely resembling a competitive race for the rest of his career.  Both OH legislative Houses were already going to have to deal with this and with Stephens having to fight hard for a map that’s acceptable to OH House Dems if he and his affiliated ~1/3 of the OH House Republican want to remain in power, I could easily see Huffman agreeing to just leave Kaptur’s seat largely untouched, especially since she’s old and it’ll probably flip as soon as she retires anyway.

As for Landsman and Sykes, Matt Huffman (along with most non-Stephens faction Republicans, for that matter) is almost certainly going to insist on one of them being sacrificed as tribute.  It’s possible that there are enough Republican in the State Senate who don’t really care enough to get in a pissing match over this that we end up with a least change map, but I doubt it.  It’s possible and more likely than a maximalist 13-2 RRH fantasy gerrymander…but it sure isn’t how I’d bet. 

So Landsman or Sykes probably gets the axe.  I actually think much of the OH House Democratic Caucus would much rather throw Landsman to the wolves, but geography will save Landsman.  We may end up with Warren County being “liberated” and Landsman getting an all HamCo seat if it doesn’t force changes elsewhere that would inconvenience anyone in the Republican US House delegation.  We could also see a least change version of Landsman’s seat, but I highly doubt it gets more Republican.

That leaves Sykes as the one to be sacrificed and that area is trending Republican anyway (she only won b/c Republicans nominated a dumpster fire-tier candidate…whom they seem inexplicably intent on running again in 2024 for some reason).  This district will likely be redrawn as a technically competitive but still reliably Republican district (they did the same thing to Betty Sutton in 2012).  I imagine it’d just take swapping the Sykes precincts in Stark County for blood red Stark County and northern Tuscarawas County precincts (and maybe some from Noble County to round out the population if necessary) from OH-6.  The new district would be Republican enough (and rapidly trending Republican as well) that to sink Sykes while also being secure for even a weak incumbent in non-wave elections (and even then, it may just be Safe R for the rest of the decade). 

I think that would be enough to appease everyone.  Obviously, the Democrats from Summit County have to oppose it (or at least loudly complain) for optics reasons (the Sykes family is extremely well-connected and basically the first family of African-American Democratic politics in Akron and it’ll still be a major Republican gerrymander, but Democrats also know that while they have some real leverage, it is far from unlimited.  As Torie would say, this is a “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” situation.  They can likely force a map that keeps Kaptur in office until she dies, faces a true Republican wave, or decides to retire and keeps the Cincinnati seat in Democratic hands, but if they get greedy and say least change or bust then it could backfire.  Whether it’s State Senate Republicans or State House Democratic Caucus-Stephens faction coalition, if anyone digs in and throws such a temper-tantrum that this becomes DeWine’s problem, then it’s going to backfire for that side.

As for state legislative redistricting, we’re likely to see a maximalist Republican State Senate gerrymander and either an incumbent protection gerrymander or a map that helps State House Dems and Stephens Republicans while double-bunking or otherwise endangering some of Stephens’ most vocal and/or politically dangerous Republican foes.

Stephens and Huffman will be given wide latitude in drawing maps for their respective chamber.  That’s just how Ohio politics works.  Plus, DeWine and LaRose are party hacks who never had a truly independent thought in their lives (this is especially true of LaRose).  They’re not looking to rock the boat by asserting themselves, they’re looking for the path of least resistance that all important Republican players can live with.

Honestly Marcy Kaptur will be the easiest to take out. All they really need to do is add more western rural counties like Henry, Paulding, or Van Wert and take out some of the less red areas like Erie or Wood. That gets it to around Trump+13 which may be too much for Kaptur to overcome especially with a opponent not named Majewski.

Republicans honestly won’t try to take out Landsman since the no-splitting-Cincy rules makes it impossible to get anything better than a left-trending swing seat for Republicans without encroaching on Wenstrup’s territory.

Sykes though…she might get a least change seat. I don’t think either Miller or Joyce are going to want to take in parts of Summit since those will make their districts less red. Worst they do is just swap out Canton for some redder parts of Stark.

[Torie]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

My critiques were in two categories: 1) things I care about that the legislature and Courts won’t (fair map issues like the Franklin County situation) and 2) things Republicans will care about.  You still double-bunked Balderson and Johnson, Turner and Davidson (or depending on where the latter runs, Davidson and Jordan).  You did address the Latta issue though and as you say, Wood County isn’t some blood-red Republican stronghold.

It is almost as if it were not legal for a rep to live outside their district.  In NYS, at the rate things are going, it will be an oddity if a rep does live in their district. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is a map that puts most of Latta's precious Wood County into OH-05. It does not change the partisan balance at all from my previous "fair and balanced" map that got your blood to run so hot.  The thing is, is that Wood is not all that Pub.If Latta wants it, he can have it. In a neutral metrics map it is part of the Toledo metro and should stay with it, but MSA integrity is Greek to the rubes who did not even master Latin because they didn't get into Harvard or something.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3f10b8c8-e4fa-45ba-b016-2aa1079643ca

My critiques were in two categories: 1) things I care about that the legislature and Courts won’t (fair map issues like the Franklin County situation) and 2) things Republicans will care about.  You still double-bunked Balderson and Johnson, Turner and Davidson (or depending on where the latter runs, Davidson and Jordan).  You did address the Latta issue though and as you say, Wood County isn’t some blood-red Republican stronghold.

It is almost as if it were not legal for a rep to live outside their district.  In NYS, at the rate things are going, it will be an oddity if a rep does live in their district. 

It might as well be illegal in Ohio

More importantly though, Balderson and Jordan have basically been drawn out.  Balderson you could maybe get away with if Weinstrup runs in your OH-2 and then Balderson carpetbags to your OH-15.  However, Jordan is basically screwed under your map and as much as I imagine we’d both enjoy seeing him go down in flames, that ain’t happening

[Torie]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

There was speculation in 2011-2012 that Republicans would eliminate Jim Jordan's seat.
In the end, it didn't happen.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

There was speculation in 2011-2012 that Republicans would eliminate Jim Jordan's seat.
In the end, it didn't happen.

I’ve seen the map Boehner threatened him with; they came *this* close before Jordan cried “uncle.”  It was hideous, but it would’ve done the trick.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

There was speculation in 2011-2012 that Republicans would eliminate Jim Jordan's seat.
In the end, it didn't happen.

I’ve seen the map Boehner threatened him with; they came *this* close before Jordan cried “uncle.”  It was hideous, but it would’ve done the trick.

Is that map online? An image of it? Now I'm curious...Thanks in advance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

There was speculation in 2011-2012 that Republicans would eliminate Jim Jordan's seat.
In the end, it didn't happen.

I’ve seen the map Boehner threatened him with; they came *this* close before Jordan cried “uncle.”  It was hideous, but it would’ve done the trick.

Is that map online? An image of it? Now I'm curious...Thanks in advance.

No, but it made the rounds behind the scenes even in some Democratic circles as everyone assumed it was gonna be the map for a while.  It basically just carved his seat up like a Thanksgiving Turkey.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not as much as Boehner would. 😝

There was speculation in 2011-2012 that Republicans would eliminate Jim Jordan's seat.
In the end, it didn't happen.

I’ve seen the map Boehner threatened him with; they came *this* close before Jordan cried “uncle.”  It was hideous, but it would’ve done the trick.

Is that map online? An image of it? Now I'm curious...Thanks in advance.

No, but it made the rounds behind the scenes even in some Democratic circles as everyone assumed it was gonna be the map for a while.  It basically just carved his seat up like a Thanksgiving Turkey.

I looked for it in vain, trying dailykos and others...
https://www.cleveland.com/open/2011/07/john_boehner_says_he_is_not_pu.html
this is the closest I got. A newspaper article was linked to but it doesn't exist anymore.