Ohio redistricting thread

[Torie]

Sorry you took it that way. I deleted all references to you.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sorry you took it that way. I deleted all references to you.

No worries

[Torie]

Here is a bit less compact looking alternative for the Columbus MSA that nevertheless scores the same per the algorithm (erosity is measured by state highway cuts between county seats) that makes OH-15 more competitive. So it would prevail given that it makes the map more proportional. Even though I love it so, "compacting looking" is not a thing in the algorithm. It also just so happens to cause all of Columbus to be in just two CD's rather than 3 (well not quite all, still 11K short, unless one allows CD's to be non contiguous to the extent the precincts are not contiguous, which I did on the map itself, and that works - barely - no wait, still 2 precincts short).

[ProgressiveModerate]

The lawsuit challenging OH’s congressional map will go back to the OH Supreme Court which now has a conservative majority.

[MaxQue]

The lawsuit challenging OH’s congressional map will go back to the OH Supreme Court which now has a conservative majority.

It also had one before.

[Torie]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

[Stuart98]

Fair, legal Ohio:

[GALeftist]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

[Nyvin]

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the court approves a "worse" map than the one that's in place now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

[MaxQue]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

Isn't the current map enacted for 4 years, and would therefore be used in 2024 as well assuming no intervention? But yes, after that a redraw should be forced.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

I wonder what the chance of a commission getting on the ballot, being enacted, and not somehow being declared illegal is? Commissions tend to be widely popular; the biggest threat is if the requirement to pass initiatives is raised to 60% but even then I think it'd still have a shot.

[windjammer]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

[MaxQue]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

The thing is, they thought it was a 13-2 map then. The Cincinnati seat was no sure gain, Marcy Kaptur looked like a goner and it was assumed the Republicans would gain the Ryan seat (hence why he ran for Senate).

The fact it ended 10-5 was quite a surprise, actually.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

The thing is, they thought it was a 13-2 map then. The Cincinnati seat was no sure gain, Marcy Kaptur looked like a goner and it was assumed the Republicans would gain the Ryan seat (hence why he ran for Senate).

The fact it ended 10-5 was quite a surprise, actually.

Eh, I think they thought it was a 10-3 map.  Chabot was always unlikely to win and I’m not really sure why so many prognosticators thought he was favored. 

[MaxQue]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

The thing is, they thought it was a 13-2 map then. The Cincinnati seat was no sure gain, Marcy Kaptur looked like a goner and it was assumed the Republicans would gain the Ryan seat (hence why he ran for Senate).

The fact it ended 10-5 was quite a surprise, actually.

Eh, I think they thought it was a 10-3 map.  Chabot was always unlikely to win and I’m not really sure why so many prognosticators thought he was favored. 

Constant downballot underperformance in Cincinnati?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OH-01 voted for Biden by 8.5 points. Would be pretty hackish to think R would be favored in that seat, although I guess those that did were probably expecting a red wave.

[Roll Roons]

OH-01 voted for Biden by 8.5 points. Would be pretty hackish to think R would be favored in that seat, although I guess those that did were probably expecting a red wave.

I think that's exactly why people thought Chabot was favored.

[Torie]

Here is an OH map drawn as best I can to hew to the Muon2 rules. Those rules in part are driven by covering and nesting of CD’s in recognized multi-county metro areas. Sometimes when they change, it changes the map such as when the Canton metro area added Carroll County as well as its home county of Stark to it. That increased the value of keeping Stark whole and in the same CD as Carroll. The only metro area that does not get the maximum score is Youngstown, which had to be split. Something had to be split given the traffic jam in the NE corner of the state between the Cleveland, Akron, Canton and Youngstown metro areas.

I doubt the Pubs will be this generous, but maybe.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fd39f645-37d7-4cf0-bf46-59f1e1bfba73

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is an OH map drawn as best I can to hew to the Muon2 rules. Those rules in part are driven by covering and nesting of CD’s in recognized multi-county metro areas. Sometimes when they change, it changes the map such as when the Canton metro area added Carroll County as well as its home county of Stark to it. That increased the value of keeping Stark whole and in the same CD as Carroll. The only metro area that does not get the maximum score is Youngstown, which had to be split. Something had to be split given the traffic jam in the NE corner of the state between the Cleveland, Akron, Canton and Youngstown metro areas.

I doubt the Pubs will be this generous, but maybe.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fd39f645-37d7-4cf0-bf46-59f1e1bfba73

This is a partisan Republican gerrymander as is any map without two Democratic seats anchored in Franklin County.  Nothing generous about it.  

More importantly, your OH-14, OH-9/OH-5, and OH-4 would all be non-starters.  You double-bunked Davidson and Jordan, put Joyce in a blue-tilting seat that Tim Ryan could run in, and Latta (who has some real pull in the legislature) will fight like hell to kill any map that puts him and Kaptur in the same seat or fails to put Wood County in a titanium Safe R district even if it costs Republicans Kaptur’s district.  Come to think of it, I doubt Republicans would agree to your OH-8 either as Miller is a weak incumbent who could be pretty vulnerable there in the next Democratic-leaning year.

We’re probably looking at a map that keeps Landsman and Kaptur’s seats largely the same, and weakens Sykes.

[Torie]

I drew it based on an algorithm, which except as a tie breaker, ignores partisan effects. You can characterize it as you like, and opine that the real line drawers have their own priorities, and that is fine. My "generous" comment was based on what the Pubs would think, not what you would think.

What I was doing was an exercise that because based on neutral rules, that make sense, it becomes harder to characterize as an unfairly partisan based on partisan motives. Arguing what is partisan or unfair in the abstract is something I just do not do anymore. I like to draw maps based on exogenous neutral rules and see how they play out, and how they will fly in court, or should.

The partisan lean image was wrong because it used a composite number rather than the 2020 Trump number. And thus the Dems are on the cusp of 2 Columbus area CD's in any event.

If you want to draw a map as to what you think the Pubs will do with a friendly court go for it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I drew it based on an algorithm, which except as a tie breaker, ignores partisan effects. You can characterize it as you like, and opine that the real line drawers have their own priorities, and that is fine. My "generous" comment was based on what the Pubs would think, not what you would think.

What I was doing was an exercise that because based on neutral rules, that make sense, it becomes harder to characterize as an unfairly partisan based on partisan motives. Arguing what is partisan or unfair in the abstract is something I just do not do anymore. I like to draw maps based on exogenous neutral rules and see how they play out, and how they will fly in court, or should.

The partisan lean image was wrong because it used a composite number rather than the 2020 Trump number. And thus the Dems are on the cusp of 2 Columbus area CD's in any event.

If you want to draw a map as to what you think the Pubs will do with a friendly court go for it.

I would draw one, but sadly Dave’s redistricting app and my computer don’t see eye to eye so all I can do is comment on other people’s maps.  It is very frustrating

Re: Franklin County: surely community of interest is a vital part of any neutral redistricting principles?

Also, I think you double-bunked Balderson and Johnson as well. 

[Vosem]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the Ohio supreme court sides with the republicans. It means the map stays in place 2 additional years right ?

No; it means that many of the opinions from 2021 get overturned and the GOP could enact a map like the previously enacted proposal, though it's unclear that they have the numbers to enact something like this again in the state House. (This specific map is also a non-starter because it puts Miller and Sykes together in a seat which is only Leans R -- the NEOH lines would have to change, but it would certainly be possible to screw over Sykes pretty hard. On this map Landsman's seat is redder than on the real map but still notionally blue, but this map was enacted with some moderate components to try to please the old Court, so it might be that a new map would draw a notionally-red-in-2022 seat.)

I don’t think they can get a redder HamCo seat through the State House at this point.