Ohio redistricting thread

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1626227666629332993?s=20

Absolute fact,  it's the worst commission process in the country bar none.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1626227666629332993?s=20

Absolute fact,  it's the worst commission process in the country bar none.

Well, I would say that it's in a larger group of commissions that are basically designed to deadlock and go to a tiebreaker 90% of the time, including AZ, MT, NJ, OH, and VA.  I would say VA punting to the state supreme court (which is non-partisan and not directly elected) is obviously better than the other fall back mechanisms, but the other 4 are all about equally bad and likely to end up as coin flip gerrymanders.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1626227666629332993?s=20

Absolute fact,  it's the worst commission process in the country bar none.

Well, I would say that it's in a larger group of commissions that are basically designed to deadlock and go to a tiebreaker 90% of the time, including AZ, MT, NJ, OH, and VA.  I would say VA punting to the state supreme court (which is non-partisan and not directly elected) is obviously better than the other fall back mechanisms, but the other 4 are all about equally bad and likely to end up as coin flip gerrymanders.

Yes, but what makes Ohio worse than the others is that the deadlock resolution is to just give the majority in the legislature, along with statewide offices, full power to draw anything they want functionally.   "Functionally" being that the State Supreme Court doesn't actually have anyway to truly enforce any of the rules in the law to get fair maps.

[GALeftist]

DeBased, DeGoat, etc.

Well, I would say that it's in a larger group of commissions that are basically designed to deadlock and go to a tiebreaker 90% of the time, including AZ, MT, NJ, OH, and VA.  I would say VA punting to the state supreme court (which is non-partisan and not directly elected) is obviously better than the other fall back mechanisms, but the other 4 are all about equally bad and likely to end up as coin flip gerrymanders.

Ohio is particularly bad because the tiebreaker doesn't even make any nonpartisan pretenses, it's just whichever psychos happen to have been elected to statewide positions. In AZ and MT the tiebreaker is supposed to be nonpartisan and in NJ at least it's not always one party or the other.

[Roll Roons]

So what would the map look like if it was independently-drawn and didn’t take incumbent demands into account?

[Mr.Phips]

DeBased, DeGoat, etc.

Well, I would say that it's in a larger group of commissions that are basically designed to deadlock and go to a tiebreaker 90% of the time, including AZ, MT, NJ, OH, and VA.  I would say VA punting to the state supreme court (which is non-partisan and not directly elected) is obviously better than the other fall back mechanisms, but the other 4 are all about equally bad and likely to end up as coin flip gerrymanders.

Ohio is particularly bad because the tiebreaker doesn't even make any nonpartisan pretenses, it's just whichever psychos happen to have been elected to statewide positions. In AZ and MT the tiebreaker is supposed to be nonpartisan and in NJ at least it's not always one party or the other.

I thought the statewide officeholders only mattered for state legislative redistricting?  Still an incredibly dumb rule that is always going to mean a gerrymander that favors the party holding a majority of Governor, auditor, and SOS.

[Torie]

So what would the map look like if it was independently-drawn and didn’t take incumbent demands into account?

I did this one long ago, which fixates on hewing to MSA area lines, and putting as much of Columbus in one CD as possible. It was done before the census figures were available, so I adjusted the lines for that data today it caused some adjustment.

The Pubs won’t be drawing this puppy. Independent bodies tend not to be as focused on MSA's.  It is a good way through to try to drain more subjectivity out of the process.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbc973b-47b9-4335-b7c2-02600b7db45d

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So what would the map look like if it was independently-drawn and didn’t take incumbent demands into account?

I did this one long ago, which fixates on hewing to MSA area lines, and putting as much of Columbus in one CD as possible. It was done before the census figures were available, so I adjusted the lines for that data today it caused some adjustment.

The Pubs won’t be drawing this puppy. Independent bodies tend not to be as focused on MSA's.  It is a good way through to try to drain more subjectivity out of the process.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbc973b-47b9-4335-b7c2-02600b7db45d

I’d argue that’s still a pretty overly Republican-friendly map.

[Torie]

The metric ignores partisan effects (proportionality) except as a tie breaker. Let the chips fall where they may.

But hey, you though my NYS map was too Pub when it really was proportional (slight bias to the Dems in fact where the vote share percentages were realistic), all the way up and down the line. After the fact, I proved that to Cervas, using his own metric as stated in his academic articles and to me personally.

[Roll Roons]

Also it's not as bad as Wisconsin, but Ohio geography isn't very good for Democrats.

I edited Torie's map a bit: https://davesredistricting.org/join/f960d5b4-03e5-4a82-aeba-edf33713423d

There are three safe Dem seats (one in each of the Cs), plus four swing seats. If my map had been in place last year, Democrats would have likely walked away with six and possibly seven out of 15 seats. Not bad in a state that trended very hard against them in recent year.

[Nyvin]

I really think there should be 4 safe D seats in the obvious places - 1 in Cincinnati, 1 in Cleaveland, and 2 in Columbus.   After that should be swing seats in Toledo, Dayton, and 2 in the Akron/Cleaveland area.

This would give a map of 7 safe R, 4 safe D, and 4 competitive.   It's something I'd see either a special master or independent commission drawing, since the district really are pretty clean and obvious.  Some clean up around the lines, sure, but the overall configuration should give the same result.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ecce9e75-ff70-476c-b32e-c18e826235da

[GALeftist]

In all honesty Ohio's political geography is not nearly as bad as Wisconsin's for Democrats. In Wisconsin to make a remotely fair map you have to unpack WI-02 and WI-04; both seats make more sense as drawn than any possible alternative. On the other hand it is fairly trivial in Ohio to get 1 D seat from Cincy, 2 D seats from Columbus, 1 D seat from Cleveland, and a swing seat each from Lorain + Cuyahoga remnants, Akron, and Toledo (and maybe a reach seat in Dayton) which is really quite fair. To the extent that it requires other seats that are bad it's just because of Ohio's asinine redistricting rules.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The metric ignores partisan effects (proportionality) except as a tie breaker. Let the chips fall where they may.

But hey, you though my NYS map was too Pub when it really was proportional (slight bias to the Dems in fact where the vote share percentages were realistic), all the way up and down the line. After the fact, I proved that to Cervas, using his own metric as stated in his academic articles and to me personally.

This isn't nearly as bad as your NYS map on that front, but I have four real issues with it (1 and 2 would be the case on any fair map whereas 3 and especially 4 are more in the "that's not how I'd have drawn it, but a fair map could definitely still make the choices you made there" category):

1) I'd argue that the Franklin County districts are a real problem although I can easily see how your configuration might make sense on paper .  There should be one district containing as much of Franklin County as will fit in a single district starting south and working your way up (including as much of Columbus proper as possible).  

The second Franklin County district should include 100% of the remainder of Franklin County + Delaware County and then I think the final addition of Morrow County should give the remaining bit of needed population.  Licking County doesn't belong with any of Franklin County unless it's just a slice of the county to round out the last bit of population nor does any of Franklin County belong in the district 15 you drew.  

2) Lucas and Wood County really belong with Ottawa and Erie counties.  It'd be fine to reach over to Fulton County or wherever to finish up the district, but those four counties should be together in full on any fair map imo.

3) Your map needlessly splits Summit County.  Summit County should remain whole with the remainder coming from one of the bordering counties.  

4) The Dayton area seat should really be Montgomery and Greene counties + Springfield, OH.

EDIT: For number two, I meant to say Fulton County not Defiance County.  I went ahead and corrected this.

[Torie]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

Well, part of the problem is that I don’t know how to post a DRA map to Atlas

I try to hew to county boundaries when reasonably possible.  I don’t think fixing any of the issues I raised leads to wildly unreasonable County splitting or even significantly more County splits than your map (less in some cases, like Franklin County).  I don’t think my proposal would split many more counties or even municipalities than yours does (quite possibly fewer chops, in fact), but it would simultaneously be a lot better from a COI perspective.  At the very least, to say your proposal respects geographic categories created by the law significantly more than mine is simply not accurate as a matter of fact.  

But as you say, we can agree to disagree.  

[Gass3268]

Someone really needs to organize a drive to get a Michigan style redistricting system on the ballot for 2024.

[Nyvin]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

Well, part of the problem is that I don’t know how to post a DRA map to Atlas

I try to hew to county boundaries when reasonably possible.  I think any of the issues I raised leads to wildly unreasonable County splitting or even significantly more County splits than your map (less in some cases, like Franklin County).  I don’t think my proposal would split many more counties or even municipalities than yours does (quite possibly fewer chops, in fact), but it would simultaneously be a lot better from a COI perspective.  At the very least, to say your proposal respects geographic categories created by the law significantly more than mine is simply not accurate as a matter of fact.  

But as you say, we can agree to disagree.  

I'd agree.  Any computer that draws an arm going from Lake County down to Medina County is definitely not some "divinely neutral" system.

[Sol]

If we're throwing Ohio maps into the ring, this is what I did in my redistricting thread.

link

Looking back on it now, I would probably sacrifice a little BVAP for more coherent lines in Columbus, but otherwise I think this makes sense.

[Torie]

That is fine. Your metric is involves judgement calls as to COI's as to what belongs with what not tied to geographic categories fashioned by law (counties, munis, MSA's, community districts) and what is fair. The one I try to follow is done by a computer. No humans need apply.

So we can agree to disagree. Life is beautiful.

Well, part of the problem is that I don’t know how to post a DRA map to Atlas

I try to hew to county boundaries when reasonably possible.  I think any of the issues I raised leads to wildly unreasonable County splitting or even significantly more County splits than your map (less in some cases, like Franklin County).  I don’t think my proposal would split many more counties or even municipalities than yours does (quite possibly fewer chops, in fact), but it would simultaneously be a lot better from a COI perspective.  At the very least, to say your proposal respects geographic categories created by the law significantly more than mine is simply not accurate as a matter of fact.  

But as you say, we can agree to disagree.  

I'd agree.  Any computer that draws an arm going from Lake County down to Medina County is definitely not some "divinely neutral" system.

You just don't like the MSA suburban wrap around concept as much as the computer algorithm does. The beauty of a thing can sometimes be subtle. 

[GALeftist]

Here's one I just threw together that complies with all of Ohio's stupid redistricting rules. I think it's pretty fair. Trump won 9 districts to Biden's 6. 7 (Lorain) and 13 (Summit) were both like Biden+2-3 and could be on borrowed time, though. 9 (Toledo area) Trump won by less than 2000 votes so Kaptur should be good there for now. 10 (Dayton area) was only Trump+3.5 but I honestly have a hard time seeing it be competitive. 15 should be pretty solid for the Democrats going forward.

EDIT: Swapped Perry for Clinton; looks a little nicer but still not great. Ohio redistricting rules suck lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How I think each of these would play out (only discussing seats that might be competitive, are open seats, or where an incumbent could lose the primary or GE:

The Torie map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbc973b-47b9-4335-b7c2-02600b7db45d

2: I think an establishment type prevails in the primary unless Seitz becomes the main establishment choice as he’d probably lose the primary for a litany of reasons. I doubt he runs though.

4: Davidson probably runs for Senate.  I doubt Carey challenges Jordan in the primary (probably goes back to making bank as a lobbyist), but if he does then he gets Blanched.

5: Primary bloodbath for this Safe R open seat.  Anyone’s game which state legislator wins, but it’ll probably be someone more establishment flavored (albeit certainly not anti-Trump).

OH-6: Bill Johnson moves to OH-13 leaving Balderson with a seat that fits him like a glove.

OH-7: Sykes is toast.  This seat is already fool’s gold for Dems absent a 2006/2008-style wave.

OH-8: Miller is screwed by this map, but no one will care.  Miller probably runs a doomed primary campaign against Joyce and a member of the Manning family easily keeps this seat in Republican hands.

OH-9: Latta easily defeats Kaptur if she even bothers running again (I suspect she wouldn’t tbh).

OH-12: Much more Republican than it looks on paper, but trending hard toward the Democrats.  This one flips whenever the Democrats nominate the right type of Franklin County Dem (i.e. clearcut, inoffensive suburbanite who is generic establishment D without being as dull as watching paint dry).  Plus, idk if the right type of Pub could even win a primary here; it’s hard to say.

OH-13: Johnson moves here and is unopposed.

OH-14: Joyce faces a primary from Miller (who probably carpetbags to this seat), but Joyce wins the primary by like 12-15 points without breaking a sweat.
—————————————

The Nyvin Map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ecce9e75-ff70-476c-b32e-c18e826235da

OH-4: Someone from the legislature wins here, but it is a marquee establishment vs. Freedom Caucus primary fight (unless Latta carpetbags here, but I doubt he would).

OH-5: Jordan runs here and Davidson runs for Senate.

OH-7: Miller carpetbags to OH-13 and a member of the Manning family easily keeps this seat In Republican hands.

OH-8: In the unlikely event Davidson doesn’t run for Senate, he’d run here.  However, this is probably another open seat where the Freedom Caucus types and establishment duke it out in the primary.  The latter probably wins.  If Keith Faber decides to run, he likely clears the field.

OH-9: Kaptur will always face competitive elections, but unless she loses, I think she tries to be a lifer with these boundaries.  Tossup GE with Kaptur facing a much stronger opponent, but in a less Republican district.  Latta would probably win by like 4 points here, but he’s lazy enough about competitive races that I’d bet money on him retiring rather than run a race that wasn’t a 100% slam dunk in the GE.

OH-12: Balderson runs here, but he’s the type of incumbent who could definitely be caught asleep at the wheel and lose his primary in a cycle or two to some unheralded opponent from Canton.

OH-13: Miller runs here and narrowly loses, but Sykes is on borrowed time.  She loses the next type Republicans nominate a candidate who isn’t a complete dumpster fire (they ran a really weak candidate in 2022 and Miller is a domestic abuser who even most Ohio Republicans only barely tolerate b/c Trump likes him).  The Republicans just need a half decent nominee and this seat flips.  Even Renacci probably gets the job done tbh.  If he runs, he might beat Miller in the primary and if so, Sykes loses by about six points.

OH-15: Carey goes back to being a lobbyist and there is a dogfight in the Democratic primary for this safe seat.  A lot of top-tier Democratic talent is bottlenecked in Franklin County with no other clear path for advancement (beyond more or less lateral moves).
———————————-
Sol’s Map:

link

OH-2: Wenstrup carpetbags here rather than run a doomed primary campaign in OH-6.  I doubt he runs into any trouble.

OH-4: Davidson runs for Senate leaving Jordan more or less unopposed in his new seat.

OH-5: Either Balderson carpetbags here and gets a district that’s a for him or some Freedom Caucus style nutjob wins a clown car primary.

OH-6: Balderson moves to OH-5 and Wenstrup does the same to OH-2 leaving this seat safely in Johnson’s hands.

OH-8: Flips as soon as Democrats run a candidate who is acceptable to Franklin County and southern Delaware County suburbanites.  In other words, it probably flips right away.  Basically, any Dem who would appeal to folks like me is gonna win here pretty easily.  Maybe Carney runs in hopes of a freak implosion by the Dem, but I really doubt it.  He probably just goes back to being a lobbyist.

OH-9: Some generic establishment type from the legislature narrowly wins a marquee Freedom Caucus vs. establishment primary unless Latta carpetbags to this seat (which I doubt).

OH-10: This is exactly what this district should look like  Anyway, Latta would probably win by like six points here in a very competitive race with Kaptur, but his laziness and aversion to competitive races is extreme enough that he either he carpetbags to OH-9 or (far more likely) just retires.

OH-11: If Miller wins the primary then Dems could definitely flip this seat with the right candidate and it will be a very competitive races.  If a member of the Manning family beats him in the primary then this is an easy Safe R hold.

OH-12: Tossup.  If the Republicans run a weak candidate like in 2022, Sykes probably narrowly holds on (and if not, it becomes a tossup the next cycle).  Against a decent opponent, Sykes probably loses by about 6-8 points.  

OH-13: Some Freedom Caucus type wins a clown car primary of nutjobs all trying to out-crazy each other.  
—————————

GALeftist’s map (clean district lines are your friend )

OH-5: I can’t tell if Bowling Green is in this district, but if so then Bob Latta definitely runs here.  If not, he either carpetbags here or retires.

OH-7: If Miller wins the primary, this is probably a pure tossup every cycle till he loses (which could happen right away tbh).  Otherwise, a member of the Manning family runs here and easily holds it for the Republicans.

OH-8: Davidson *might* decide to run for reelection rather than Senate with this map (might is doing a lot of the heavy lifting there).  If he runs for Senate and Faber doesn’t run, then some Freedom Caucus type probably narrowly beats a more establishment-flavored opponent or two in the primary.

OH-9: If Republicans run a good candidate, this is probably a Tilt R.  If they run another nutjob/dumpster fire then Kaptur probably has better than 50-50 odds of narrowly hanging on.  Still, this seat will never be safe for Kaptur.  

OH-12: Jordan gets this seat.  Carey won’t carpetbag here and if he did, he’d get Blanched in the primary.

OH-13: Flips whenever Republicans get their act together to nominate a solid candidate.  Until then, Sykes narrowly hangs on, but that could mean she doesn’t even last one cycle with this map.  Her fate is entirely in Republican primary voters’ hands.

OH-15: Clown car Democratic primary overflowing with ambitious A-list and B-list candidates desperately trying to seize their only chance to advance beyond the state legislature/county political office for God knows how long.  Safe D seat though.

[politicallefty]

This was my second proposal for a fair and reasonable map. I don't specifically recall the reason for the appendage on OH-12, but it's not for political reasons. My first proposal had a more Democratic-leaning district in OH-13 based in Summit County. (It's a few posts above the quote/link below.)

[Nyvin]

Northern Franklin + Delaware County is an extremely natural pairing,  I can't see any possible reason not to put them together aside from partisan interests. 

The municipal lines cross the county border, the urban area of the Columbus metro extends northward, both have similar income levels, and the two counties together are just barely short of 2 districts.  It's pretty much a perfect match.

[Torie]

Well, it turned out the algorithm had some programing errors, but in the end there was great rejoicing, as it made the map even more wonderful, including that OH-04 is almost perfect in population without another county cut. Notice too that Jim Jordon not only now lives in his district, but also that the district has almost no Democrats, so thus unleashed, Jim can be Jim without having to endure the stress of filtering himself.

In all events, be sure to savor that each and every MSA in the state is now both properly covered and nested, with the exception of the Youngstown one, where the real estate shortage dictated that Trumbull be detached from Mahoning (be sure not to miss how clean the detachment was however, almost bloodless), as well as the glorious accomplishment that the Akron MSA is now given the respect it deserves at last, as opposed to being some sliced and diced suburban appendage of Cleveland. I expect something soon there will be named in my honor, perhaps one of the trails in the Cuyahoga National Park, that the pack so very much enjoyed between hospital visits.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb60b9-e614-4b79-9e7f-42bbf59fc68c

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well, it turned out the algorithm had some programing errors, but in the end there was great rejoicing, as it made the map even more wonderful, including that OH-04 is almost perfect in population without another county cut. Notice too that Jim Jordon not only now lives in his district, but also that the district has almost no Democrats, so thus unleashed, Jim can be Jim without having to endure the stress of filtering himself.

There are also a nice batch of competitive seats, which my interlocutor who has this masochistic desire to commit to memory, not only the name, but also the address of each and every political hack politician in the state, will of course complain are still too Pub to be really competitive, so it is all window dressing. His remedy of course is to sue the census bureau for MSA lines that just happened to be Pub friendly, perhaps drawn by Trump moles in that organization. Unleash the hounds and by all means investigate. SCOTUS wants to hear from you.

In all events, be sure to savor that each and every MSA in the state is now both properly covered and nested, with the exception of the Youngstown one, where the real estate shortage dictated that Trumbull be detached from Mahoning (be sure not to miss how clean the detachment was however, almost bloodless), as well as the glorious accomplishment that the Akron MSA is now given the respect it deserves at last, as opposed to being some sliced and diced suburban appendage of Cleveland. I expect something soon there will be named in my honor, perhaps one of the trails in the Cuyahoga National Park, that the pack so very much enjoyed between hospital visits.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb60b9-e614-4b79-9e7f-42bbf59fc68c

Those MSA lines are not particularly Republican-friendly nor are they wildly incompatible with fixing the issues I raised regarding your Franklin County and northwest Ohio districts.  The hyper-partisan contortions in your Franklin County slice-and-dice in particular simply leaps right off the page.  There is absolutely no justification for dividing it up into three districts and the fact that your map does so outs it as a clearcut Toriemander.  As for your OH-9, the only reasonable way to draw that seat is Lucas + Wood + Fulton + Erie + Clinton + as much of Sandusky and/or Henry counties as you need to round out the population.

My objection to the Toriemanders isn’t that they’re Republican gerrymanders, it’s that you try to package them as divinely non-partisan when the outcome is still a gerrymander.  Your system, algorithm or not, is no more immune to the bias of the line drawer than anything else’s.