Ohio redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

The state house map should be weird.  The map was an ultra competitive map with around 54 Safe R seats. Rs won most of the seats but Dems held a few as well. The make up is 67 32 with Dems having only 5 seats outside the big C's. Another issue with state house redistricting  is that state senate maps are made up from them . This will be definitely tough in the Cleveland area.

[David Hume]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

[Mr.Phips]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

Because they would take the issue off the table.  They don’t want to have to be fighting a referendum every two years.

[David Hume]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

Because they would take the issue off the table.  They don’t want to have to be fighting a referendum every two years.

COC spend money to get more R elected.

R drawn maps help to get more R elected.

COC spend money to fight against commission.

I can't see any problem with this logic. With a commission, COC would need to spend even MORE money to elect enough Rs to push for their preferred policy. So what's the problem?

[Mr.Phips]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

Because they would take the issue off the table.  They don’t want to have to be fighting a referendum every two years.

COC spend money to get more R elected.

R drawn maps help to get more R elected.

COC spend money to fight against commission.

I can't see any problem with this logic. With a commission, COC would need to spend even MORE money to elect enough Rs to push for their preferred policy. So what's the problem?

Because they would have to keep spending to fight the commission.  The COC would rather have a 10-5 commission map where they wouldn’t need to spend money on races over a 13-2 partisan map where they would have continually spend money to beat back commission efforts.

[David Hume]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

Because they would take the issue off the table.  They don’t want to have to be fighting a referendum every two years.

COC spend money to get more R elected.

R drawn maps help to get more R elected.

COC spend money to fight against commission.

I can't see any problem with this logic. With a commission, COC would need to spend even MORE money to elect enough Rs to push for their preferred policy. So what's the problem?

Because they would have to keep spending to fight the commission.  The COC would rather have a 10-5 commission map where they wouldn’t need to spend money on races over a 13-2 partisan map where they would have continually spend money to beat back commission efforts.

Seems you did not get my points. Why do COC want to spend money? Because they want to get enough politicians elected to push for their preferred policy.

With a gerrymander map, it would be much easier for them to get enough politicians to push for their preferred policy.

[Mr.Phips]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

What's the reason that COC would prefer independent commissions?

Because they would take the issue off the table.  They don’t want to have to be fighting a referendum every two years.

COC spend money to get more R elected.

R drawn maps help to get more R elected.

COC spend money to fight against commission.

I can't see any problem with this logic. With a commission, COC would need to spend even MORE money to elect enough Rs to push for their preferred policy. So what's the problem?

Because they would have to keep spending to fight the commission.  The COC would rather have a 10-5 commission map where they wouldn’t need to spend money on races over a 13-2 partisan map where they would have continually spend money to beat back commission efforts.

Seems you did not get my points. Why do COC want to spend money? Because they want to get enough politicians elected to push for their preferred policy.

With a gerrymander map, it would be much easier for them to get enough politicians to push for their preferred policy.

And yet they will have to keep spending money to fight commissions in that case, which they stated they are tired of having to do. 

[Ragnaroni]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

Heh that's kinda neat. How do I use this to gerrymander (for fun of course) other states?

[politicallefty]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

Heh that's kinda neat. How do I use this to gerrymander (for fun of course) other states?

Here you go. I'm pretty sure you have to make an account now, but it isn't too hard to figure out. I would recommend just playing around if you're not too technologically-adept.

[Ragnaroni]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

Heh that's kinda neat. How do I use this to gerrymander (for fun of course) other states?

Here you go. I'm pretty sure you have to make an account now, but it isn't too hard to figure out. I would recommend just playing around if you're not too technologically-adept.

Thanks, I'll try to figure it out. Gonna gerrymander California in such a way.

[politicallefty]

And yet they will have to keep spending money to fight commissions in that case, which they stated they are tired of having to do.

From what I've read, Ohio has a pretty robust initiative procedure that makes it quite easy to propose constitutional amendments to the voters and some Republicans want to try to increase the threshold to a 60% supermajority (an attempt to forestall an abortion rights amendment). In any event, it seems likely that something more significant will pass if Republicans keep insisting on their hideous gerrymanders in defiance of the Ohio Constitution.

[windjammer]

How will the future ohii maps look like given there are now three parties apparently ?

[BenjiG98]

DeWine not eager to revisit redistricting:

https://thecourier.com/news/443343/dewine-not-eager-to-revisit-redistricting/

[Torie]

I tried using all the tricks of the trade to make as cosmetic as possible a map that effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. This was the best that I could do. Tri-chopping Franklin is mandatory, so that required work to make it pretty and generate talking points/excuses/fig leafs for the OSC about non partisan justifications, while hewing to the all the technical constraints, of which there are several.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/35b9498d-b9d2-4d1c-97e5-a5b349bc6372

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I tried using all the tricks of the trade to make as cosmetic as possible a map that effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. This was the best that I could do.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/35b9498d-b9d2-4d1c-97e5-a5b349bc6372

There are a few issues with this map:

1) My understanding is that Bob Latta very much doesn't want to run against Kaptur (and in fact does not want any of Lucas County in his district) and he has a certain degree of pull in the legislature.  He wants his own little fiefdom untouched even at the expense of flipping Kaptur's seat.  FYI, Latta lives in Bowling Green.  So Lucas County cannot be in Latta's district; that's a big no-no unless Latta changes his mind.  This has been a source of annoyance for national Republicans ever since the first post-Latta redistricting, but luckily for Kaptur, there's really nothing to be done about it.

2) You've double-bunked Jim Jordan (Urbana) and Mike Carey (Columbus) which is a huge no-no.  Yes, in theory there is a new seat Jordan could run in, but he won't want to move  This issue alone would easily be a deal-breaker for this map.  Both of them have pull with different factions in the legislature.

3) You double-bunked Warren Davidson (Troy) and Mike Turner (Dayton).  This is another no-no.  Neither will want to move, although the issue might be moot if Davidson ends up running for Senate.  Also, Davidson has far less pull than Turner, Jordan, Carey, and Latta, so what he wants is probably a lesser consideration.  Even so, the double-bunking would be a problem here as Turner would likely be strongly opposed.

Ultimately, this is a great example of a map that despite being an effective maximalist gerrymander in theory, has virtually no chance of ever being enacted given various incumbent priorities likely outweighing partisan considerations.  

[Torie]

All valid points no doubt, and I have no idea where these critters live. Bowling Green is a suburban place with Lucas. They belong together. You accommodate all these incumbents, and how many talking points will be left, assuming you still want to hew to the keep it to three metric?

Btw, how well do you think this yellow camel thing depicted below that has Troy as the roof of its mouth hews to the "compact" constraint? Inquiring minds want to know. And if Troy and bits of Columbus are in one CD, how come different Congressmen live in each? I guess you meant the Troy southern burbs that are the mouth itself of the camel.

Remember what I said about how hackish state supreme courts have become? They really are a mess.

[Nyvin]

I tried using all the tricks of the trade to make as cosmetic as possible a map that effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. This was the best that I could do. Tri-chopping Franklin is mandatory, so that required work to make it pretty and generate talking points/excuses/fig leafs for the OSC about non partisan justifications, while hewing to the all the technical constraints, of which there are several.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/35b9498d-b9d2-4d1c-97e5-a5b349bc6372

No whole county in OH-7

[lfromnj]

I tried using all the tricks of the trade to make as cosmetic as possible a map that effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. This was the best that I could do. Tri-chopping Franklin is mandatory, so that required work to make it pretty and generate talking points/excuses/fig leafs for the OSC about non partisan justifications, while hewing to the all the technical constraints, of which there are several.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/35b9498d-b9d2-4d1c-97e5-a5b349bc6372

No whole county in OH-7

Shouldn't be too hard a fix. Give 5 some of Cuyahoga and give the rest of Medina.

[Torie]

The damn document has the lame word “attempt” (that is really suck drafting), but point taken.

https://codes.ohio.gov/ohio-constitution/section-19.2

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

All valid points no doubt, and I have no idea where these critters live. Bowling Green is a suburban place with Lucas. They belong together. You accommodate all these incumbents, and how many talking points will be left, assuming you still want to hew to the keep it to three metric?

Btw, how well do you think this yellow camel thing depicted below that has Troy as the roof of its mouth hews to the "compact" constraint? Inquiring minds want to know. And if Troy and bits of Columbus are in one CD, how come different Congressmen live in each? I guess you meant the Troy southern burbs that are the mouth itself of the camel.

Remember what I said about how hackish state supreme courts have become? They really are a mess.

- Ah, but that’s the hard part!  To draw the gerrymander while still keeping all the necessary parties happy and satisfying their various demands.

- I agree that any remotely reasonable map would have Wood and Lucas counties in the same district.  Again, the issue here is that Latta has the pull with the legislature to block this and jealously guards his fiefdom.  That’s actually why Republicans drew Kaptur’s district the way they did even though combining her and Latta’s districts would easily sink her.  Latta has basically saved her two redistricting cycles in a row.

- Carey’s district is an abomination that makes a complete mockery of the compactness requirement imo.  It’d be upheld though given the new makeup of the court.

- IIRC, that little arm into the southern suburbs of Troy exists specifically to take in Davidson’s house.  It’s one of those zip code gerrymanders you sometimes see to make sure an incumbent’s home is in a particular district even though said district includes hardly any of their hometown.

- I agree about State Supreme Courts being increasingly hackish.  My issue with LaSalle is that he is very much someone who would worsen that trend.  While he is nominally a Democrat, he’s basically a far right extremist backed by corporate interests who is being pushed by a rogues gallery of some of the worst folks the New York Democratic establishment has to offer.  To my mind, that doesn’t make him a moderate.  It makes him someone who would be a horrible justice and I am pretty appalled by the NY Republicans’ attempt to run roughshod over the rule of law.

[Nyvin]

Do they actually have to draw a new map or is leaving the current one in place for 2024 an option?  I know the Federal court said to use the state leg's map for 2022 only but it didn't actually say a new one had to be made for 2024. 

I'd be fine with keeping the current one in 2024.  OH-1 is easily winnable for Landsman and OH-13 is just a competitive swing seat.  Kaptur will be in trouble but that was always going to be the case.   I say just leave the map in place for 2024 and draw a new one later in the decade.

[Torie]

Researching where the rat bastard Pub incumbents live to tweak the  Pubmander just does not self actualize me. I note that Pub incumbents need only live in the state, not the district, per the US Constitution. In NYS, a bunch of incumbents were bounced from where their home is per the Cervas redraw, who cared about where incumbents live just as much as I did - the null set. Nobody cared in the ensuing election where the politicians lived. Those reelected now live outside the district and love it. It actually turned out that some lived outside their district before the redraw, as the NY Post tabloid pointed out with glee. Nobody cared about that either.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Researching where the rat bastard Pub incumbents live to tweak the  Pubmander just does not self actualize me. I note that Pub incumbents need only live in the state, not the district, per the US Constitution. In NYS, a bunch of incumbents were bounced from where their home is per the Cervas redraw, who cared about where incumbents live just as much as I did - the null set. Nobody cared in the ensuing election where the politicians lived. Those reelected now live outside the district and love it. It actually turned out that some lived outside their district before the redraw, as the NY Post tabloid pointed out with glee. Nobody cared about that either.

In Ohio, both the Courts and legislature will bend over backwards to accommodate Republican incumbent demands.

[Torie]

Here is the map to make Mr. X happy, bless him.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b250bbec-7ac8-4583-9128-cb117464b24d

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1626227666629332993?s=20