Ohio redistricting thread

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/MorganTrau/status/1610363875479916545

[GALeftist]

Will this have any impact wrt redistricting? Think I read that the Ohio House Dems thought that Stephens would make a "genuine effort" for fair maps or something like that. I doubt we're getting the Franklin+Delaware seat or anything like that, but could this give Democrats a genuine seat at the table?

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/MorganTrau/status/1610363875479916545

What's this about?

[Mr.Phips]

Will this have any impact wrt redistricting? Think I read that the Ohio House Dems thought that Stephens would make a "genuine effort" for fair maps or something like that. I doubt we're getting the Franklin+Delaware seat or anything like that, but could this give Democrats a genuine seat at the table?

Maybe a deal to just repass the current map, which isn’t terrible for Dems as 2022 showed.  At the very least, they can hope that Stephens would agree to a compact all Hamilton county Cincinatti seat rather than the crap they kept trying to pull last year there.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Will this have any impact wrt redistricting? Think I read that the Ohio House Dems thought that Stephens would make a "genuine effort" for fair maps or something like that. I doubt we're getting the Franklin+Delaware seat or anything like that, but could this give Democrats a genuine seat at the table?

Maybe a deal to just repass the current map, which isn’t terrible for Dems as 2022 showed.  At the very least, they can hope that Stephens would agree to a compact all Hamilton county Cincinatti seat rather than the crap they kept trying to pull this year there.

I'd take that deal. It's probably the best the Democrats can hope for anyway.

[Pollster]

Dems should really not push their luck here - maybe be more defensive than offensive and fight only for a cleaner Cincinnati seat and shoring up Kaptur a bit.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems should really not push their luck here - maybe be more defensive than offensive and fight only for a cleaner Cincinnati seat and shoring up Kaptur a bit.

Yeah hopefully they are smarter than MO Dems who tried to push for a 3rd seat rather than be happy that they were keeping their two seats.  Or Florida Dems who didn’t provide votes for a veto override on a map that was the same as the one that passed but gave them back FL-05.

[Tekken_Guy]

A solid map for Dems IMO would have three safe seats in the three C’s, the existing swing seats in Akron and Toledo (with possibly a more favorable draw for the latter). Then they could get a second safe seat in th Columbus suburbs or at least a swing seat there, and another in the Cleveland suburbs. And finally the Dayton seat which Mike Turner would be safe in but could be competitive once he retires.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A solid map for Dems IMO would have three safe seats in the three C’s, the existing swing seats in Akron and Toledo (with possibly a more favorable draw for the latter). Then they could get a second safe seat in th Columbus suburbs or at least a swing seat there, and another in the Cleveland suburbs. And finally the Dayton seat which Mike Turner would be safe in but could be competitive once he retires.

Unless you see mass retirements in 2024, I think what’s most likely if this agreement holds is some sort of incumbent protection-mander that fully cedes Ds a Cinci seat, ungerrymanders OH-09, and keeps OH-13 more or less as is. On the flip side, OH-07 and OH-15 don’t get much of any more favorable to Ds.

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

[Torie]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

[Nyvin]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

[Mr.Phips]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yeah that’s the next step if Republicans get too aggressive here.  I know business organizations like the COC basically said they weren’t gonna keep helping Republicans beat back independent commissions here and that is why Republicans came to the table in the first place on this in 2015.

[Torie]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

Why not just put an independent commission on the ballot and remove the legislature from the process entirely?

Yes, there will be something put on the ballot. The former chief justice will lead the charge. But it has to pass. Not taking a semi-reasonable offer won't help. The Pubs getting more greedy will help.

[politicallefty]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

As a Democrat, I would take a cleaned up version of the current map. Some parts seems to be unnecessarily ugly. If they reoriented the 9/5 border (drop Wood and the counties west of Lucas for a split in Lorain), made OH-01 entirely within Hamilton County, and cleaned up the hideous OH-15, I'd take it. I actually think the current OH-13 is one of the better parts of the map.

I do wonder if Democrats got some new redistricting deal out of their deal with the new Speaker.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Pubs have all the cards, so the Dems might be wise to accept the existing map. That way they get winnable Toledo (lean Pub) and Akron (swing) seats, that absent a deal, could be taken away with a nice clean looking map. OH-01 is already pretty safely Dem, and is not coming back.

As a Democrat, I would take a cleaned up version of the current map. Some parts seems to be unnecessarily ugly. If they reoriented the 9/5 border (drop Wood and the counties west of Lucas for a split in Lorain), made OH-01 entirely within Hamilton County, and cleaned up the hideous OH-15, I'd take it. I actually think the current OH-13 is one of the better parts of the map.

I do wonder if Democrats got some new redistricting deal out of their deal with the new Speaker.

15 really pisses me off because you can achieve basically the same partisanship without making the district look awful. Just take in rub red counties to the South of Columbus.

It's honestly pretty hard to make OH-13 any bluer without doing anything blatantly partisan, and as you said the district as a whole makes sense, so I would keep it (and the rest of NEOH) if I were a Dem.

At first I was confused as to why the GOP made the bluest possible Dayton district (OH), but after seeing Turner's 2022 overperformance I understand.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Rs should make the Kaptur seat very red in exchange for a Cincy sink and keep OH-13 as it is. That's an R-leaning but still keeps a competitive seat. So 11-3-1.

[Vosem]

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

Yes. Under the normal laws, if the state legislature fails to pass a bipartisan map, then the map holds only for 4 years and gets redrawn after 2 cycles. However, the map passed by the state legislature was (repeatedly) overturned by the state Supreme Court, with orders for the legislature to draw a new map. Eventually, after there wasn't time left to redraw the map again and Republicans had made substantial concessions, federal courts stepped in and ordered the map the state legislature had passed used, but only for the 2022 cycle; the old state Supreme Court order to redraw the lines remains in effect for 2024.

Republicans could presumably ask the new state Supreme Court to forgive this obligation (and if they don't meet it, the new state Supreme Court would probably order the current lines reused), but they haven't done so, probably because they expect to pass better, and perhaps substantially better, lines for the GOP before 2024. The agreement in the state House with the Democrats kind of puts all of this into question, because it's kind of inconceivable that Democrats would've agreed to back a Speaker without some sort of redistricting concessions, but the new Speaker was a hardliner on redistricting (vocal 13-2 supporter!) in the recent past, so nobody's sure what's going on. If concessions were made, they were probably made on the state House maps, since the Democrats negotiating have a personal interest in those.

My understanding from before the deal was that after the election the likeliest maps were 12-3, with a sink in Hamilton to go with the Cuyahoga and Franklin ones, but Sykes (especially) and Kaptur (kinda) put into significantly redder seats. That said, Sykes is a former leader of the Ohio state House Democrats and Kaptur has significant ties with congressional Republicans, so both of them might have ways to negotiate. (Peak stupid -- but which I could imagine, and would probably inspire a new redistricting referendum -- is a map where Sykes and Kaptur don't get worse seats, but Hamilton gets cut into pieces to try to doom Landsman, the OH Democrat with the least clout and worst relationship with the GOP).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cut

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

Yes. Under the normal laws, if the state legislature fails to pass a bipartisan map, then the map holds only for 4 years and gets redrawn after 2 cycles. However, the map passed by the state legislature was (repeatedly) overturned by the state Supreme Court, with orders for the legislature to draw a new map. Eventually, after there wasn't time left to redraw the map again and Republicans had made substantial concessions, federal courts stepped in and ordered the map the state legislature had passed used, but only for the 2022 cycle; the old state Supreme Court order to redraw the lines remains in effect for 2024.

Republicans could presumably ask the new state Supreme Court to forgive this obligation (and if they don't meet it, the new state Supreme Court would probably order the current lines reused), but they haven't done so, probably because they expect to pass better, and perhaps substantially better, lines for the GOP before 2024. The agreement in the state House with the Democrats kind of puts all of this into question, because it's kind of inconceivable that Democrats would've agreed to back a Speaker without some sort of redistricting concessions, but the new Speaker was a hardliner on redistricting (vocal 13-2 supporter!) in the recent past, so nobody's sure what's going on. If concessions were made, they were probably made on the state House maps, since the Democrats negotiating have a personal interest in those.

My understanding from before the deal was that after the election the likeliest maps were 12-3, with a sink in Hamilton to go with the Cuyahoga and Franklin ones, but Sykes (especially) and Kaptur (kinda) put into significantly redder seats. That said, Sykes is a former leader of the Ohio state House Democrats and Kaptur has significant ties with congressional Republicans, so both of them might have ways to negotiate. (Peak stupid -- but which I could imagine, and would probably inspire a new redistricting referendum -- is a map where Sykes and Kaptur don't get worse seats, but Hamilton gets cut into pieces to try to doom Landsman, the OH Democrat with the least clout and worst relationship with the GOP).

Ah thanks for this detailed anaylsis.

If Ds redistricting deal was strickly with the state legislature, that would be extremely disappointing given fair map or not, OH legislature isn't a very realistic goal at this point.

Even though it's still crack-able, it seems like the political willpower isn't as strong to crack OH-01 unless Chabot tries to win back the old seat.

OH-09 will def be interesting, especially considering in no maps did the GOP fully doom Kaptur's seat; maybe they just assumed putting her in a right-shifting Trump district would surely mean defeat?

Also idk how much leverage Jordan has, but if he refuses to take in any part of Lucas County, that could be a problem for the GOP.

Finally, does anyone know wtf this map was:



I can't tell if it was a joke or a serious attempt at putting Columbus Ds into a swing seat (even though for practical purposes even this OH-03 would be safe D)

[lfromnj]

That plan was a joke and illegal based on the split decision as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

[BenjiG98]

Cut

One question I have is originally, I thought this new map is in place for 4 years since it failed to get bipartisan support, but it seems like consensus is there will be a redraw for 2024. Can someone explain what’s going on here.

Yes. Under the normal laws, if the state legislature fails to pass a bipartisan map, then the map holds only for 4 years and gets redrawn after 2 cycles. However, the map passed by the state legislature was (repeatedly) overturned by the state Supreme Court, with orders for the legislature to draw a new map. Eventually, after there wasn't time left to redraw the map again and Republicans had made substantial concessions, federal courts stepped in and ordered the map the state legislature had passed used, but only for the 2022 cycle; the old state Supreme Court order to redraw the lines remains in effect for 2024.

Republicans could presumably ask the new state Supreme Court to forgive this obligation (and if they don't meet it, the new state Supreme Court would probably order the current lines reused), but they haven't done so, probably because they expect to pass better, and perhaps substantially better, lines for the GOP before 2024. The agreement in the state House with the Democrats kind of puts all of this into question, because it's kind of inconceivable that Democrats would've agreed to back a Speaker without some sort of redistricting concessions, but the new Speaker was a hardliner on redistricting (vocal 13-2 supporter!) in the recent past, so nobody's sure what's going on. If concessions were made, they were probably made on the state House maps, since the Democrats negotiating have a personal interest in those.

My understanding from before the deal was that after the election the likeliest maps were 12-3, with a sink in Hamilton to go with the Cuyahoga and Franklin ones, but Sykes (especially) and Kaptur (kinda) put into significantly redder seats. That said, Sykes is a former leader of the Ohio state House Democrats and Kaptur has significant ties with congressional Republicans, so both of them might have ways to negotiate. (Peak stupid -- but which I could imagine, and would probably inspire a new redistricting referendum -- is a map where Sykes and Kaptur don't get worse seats, but Hamilton gets cut into pieces to try to doom Landsman, the OH Democrat with the least clout and worst relationship with the GOP).

Ah thanks for this detailed anaylsis.

If Ds redistricting deal was strickly with the state legislature, that would be extremely disappointing given fair map or not, OH legislature isn't a very realistic goal at this point.

Even though it's still crack-able, it seems like the political willpower isn't as strong to crack OH-01 unless Chabot tries to win back the old seat.

OH-09 will def be interesting, especially considering in no maps did the GOP fully doom Kaptur's seat; maybe they just assumed putting her in a right-shifting Trump district would surely mean defeat?

Also idk how much leverage Jordan has, but if he refuses to take in any part of Lucas County, that could be a problem for the GOP.

Finally, does anyone know wtf this map was:



I can't tell if it was a joke or a serious attempt at putting Columbus Ds into a swing seat (even though for practical purposes even this OH-03 would be safe D)

Does anyone have a DRA link for this map?

[Tekken_Guy]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

This screams Dummymander to me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

This screams Dummymander to me.

The big dummymander risk is Appalachian Ohio. With the way things are going, it's looking hard for Ds to both improve big time in that area, and continue making gains in the Doughnut.

[Torie]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

Albeit illegal. You quin-chopped Franklin County, when only a tri-chop is allowed. Aside from the stricture of not unduly favoring one party, it is possible to hold the Dems to but 2 seats by putting Cincy with a sliver of Hamilton and a slice of Butler, and then run the CD along the western state line as long as it takes to fill out the population. Your map actually drew a swing CD going Dem. Any of the members of any court which would vote to uphold such map would destroy their professional reputations, but as long as it is only with the opposite party, that seems more and more common. Chaps in robes screwing the other party has far more potential to make them into folk hero icons.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Behold! An OH map with only 1 Biden seat.

Albeit illegal. You quin-chopped Franklin County, when only a tri-chop is allowed. Aside from the stricture of not unduly favoring one party, it is possible to hold the Dems to but 2 seats by putting Cincy with a sliver of Hamilton and a slice of Butler, and then run the CD along the western state line as long as it takes to fill out the population. Your map actually drew a swing CD going Dem. Any of the members of any court which would vote to uphold such map would destroy their professional reputations, but as long as it is only with the opposite party, that seems more and more common. Chaps in robes screwing the other party has far more potential to make them into folk hero icons.

Fair.
A map like this is the quickest way for OH to get a new redistricting reform, in fact.