Ohio redistricting thread

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...

Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

That could be worse, though connecting Morrow county with Grove City is gross.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...

Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

Yeah, this is actually worth considering, since this map is a huge improvement over the initial one.

I'd still ask for a better district around Toledo, though. That one ought to be at least Biden+5 or so (basically giving it a neutral PVI). If the OHGOP can accept that, I say we have a deal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...
Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

Yeah, this is actually worth considering, since this map is a huge improvement over the initial one.

I'd still ask for a better district around Toledo, though. That one ought to be at least Biden+5 or so (basically giving it a neutral PVI). If the OHGOP can accept that, I say we have a deal.

I don't see how that's possible without a gerrymander itself taking it in to the Cleveland area.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...
Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

Yeah, this is actually worth considering, since this map is a huge improvement over the initial one.

I'd still ask for a better district around Toledo, though. That one ought to be at least Biden+5 or so (basically giving it a neutral PVI). If the OHGOP can accept that, I say we have a deal.

I don't see how that's possible without a gerrymander itself taking it in to the Cleveland area.

What if the Toledo district basically took in as much of Lucas and Wood counties as it could, while losing everything rural west of the Lucas/Wood county line?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...
Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

Yeah, this is actually worth considering, since this map is a huge improvement over the initial one.

I'd still ask for a better district around Toledo, though. That one ought to be at least Biden+5 or so (basically giving it a neutral PVI). If the OHGOP can accept that, I say we have a deal.

I don't see how that's possible without a gerrymander itself taking it in to the Cleveland area.

What if the Toledo district basically took in as much of Lucas and Wood counties as it could, while losing everything rural west of the Lucas/Wood county line?

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c4c3824d-939e-484d-9adc-45f807318731

Like this? Still only Biden +0.8

[Libertas Vel Mors]

FWIW this is my preferred "fair" configuration for a Toledo district. No county splits and a Trump +1.5 district (that, interestingly, voted for Clinton in 2016).

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::91b23ad3-be51-42e0-b3e4-04b16beb75e1

[Storr]

Based on the latest Republican proposal: make a third NE Ohio D seat and a tossup/lean D North Columbus/suburbs seat, then I'll be happy. Republicans can keep their Dayton + rurals seat and crack of suburban Cincinnati. Toledo in a blue seat is a sacrifice I'm willing to make for 5 solid D seats + 1 tossup that's trending D. The "mistake by the lake" needs to die.

[lfromnj]

https://paulmillerohio.com/gerrymandering/

Although Mr.Millers Ohio map isn't that unfair or anything his website is a dooozy.

[GALeftist]

https://paulmillerohio.com/gerrymandering/

Although Mr.Millers Ohio map isn't that unfair or anything his website is a dooozy.

In an election with narrow differences in the voting patterns, this could theoretically secure the majority party’s chances of winning more seats overall, but it would be naïve to think that the extra advantage could necessarily overcome the differences between the individual candidates in a race, or other factors such as the amounts of monies raised and spent on campaigns, election fraud, or how the voters feel about certain issues at the time.

One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1496860324225507332?s=20&t=EbnxU7MIRUFEMt0t...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Marcy Kaptur is awake and hungry!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1496944822292258819?s=20&t=oMmz3LSEDqSb_X5b...

GOP proposes new Leg lines after being found in contempt. Glancing over it, these are meme maps that don't try to solve the marginality issue.

[lfromnj]

Youngstown split !

[lfromnj]

My Analysis on the senate map.
Changes

Cleveland was changed to have Lake instead of Summit go with Cuyahoga. This gives Democrats a shot at winning 6 districts in the NE.

Toledo was cracked in 2 to create a Likely D Biden +10 seat and a Trump +3 seat.
 Not sure what happened in Columbus but they switched the map from the Union configuration. 2 Safe D , 2 Biden +8 seats.

Dayton seems similar although a bit cleaner. Leaves it as a Biden +5 Tilt D instead of a Likely/Safe D seat.

Cincinatti-fugly lines here but the GOP is refusing to concede 2 state senate districts which requires  either splitting Cincinatti or drawing a really weird district from Western Hamilton to Butler. It still seems to be the same lines as the previous round.

Summit-Is now paired with Kent-Geagua. What would be a Safe D and Likely R is now 2 Tilt to Lean D's.


Overall the winnable seats for Dems stand as

6 Cuyahoga/Summit/Lake/Kent.

4 Franklin

2 Toledo

1 Lorain

1 Cincinatti

1 Dayton.


Technically speaking this only has 5 Safe D seats(2 Franklin 2 Cleveland, and 1 Cincinatti) although the  Outer Lucas seat should be safe for Democrats.

[lfromnj]

State house changes-

Cuyahoga/Summit/Kent is relatively similar on the partisan scale. Just weird all around.

Toledo- 2 Safe D and 2 tossups by Biden numbers and Lean D on composite from 3 Safe D and 1 Safe R. Done through digging into Toledo.

Columbus- 12 seats total but one has to be Safe R without some incredible shenanigan's. After that the map has 2 tossups in the South. One even trended R in 2020.

Dayton- adds a tossup.

Youngstown- Pittsburghed.(inner ring suburbs  with middle ring suburbs while the core city is with rural areas) City itself isn't split but it is effectively a split by nature. Goes from 1 Safe D, 1 Likely R or Safe R(Safe D seat has really low turnout) to 2 Trump 2020 seats that are still D leaning overall.


Overall winnable seats for Dems

16 in Summit-Cuyahoga-Lake-Kent

3 in Mahoning

1 Canton

2 Lorain

4 Toledo

11 Columbus

3 Dayton

5 Cinci

for a total of 45.

Other winnable seats is the Wood County seat(generally follows Ohio as a whole) and the Athens seat.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1496992768148664331?s=20&t=amveZ0Yg4p...

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1496991938590830592

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1497001550639554560

Faber voted no because he believes the maps are too Dem favorable.

[lfromnj]

By the way one under discussed gerrymander by the GOP is Delaware county



This would be a fair state house district for the southern part of Delaware. Another Biden-Renacci district that should exist just like 1 in Hamilton. Still very R leaning on the composite of course and unlike Hamilton county nothing can really make it D leaning on the composite.

The GOP proposals generally do a vertical split of Delaware evenly splitting it into 2 Trump +10 districts. The Democratic maps decide to remove some of the more r parts in the Southern portion of the county and add  the city of Delaware itself . Only increases it by 1 point for Biden but does make it 5 points more D downballot atleast using 2018 senate.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...

Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

No, they can try to push for uniting Lucas with Wood, having the Dayton seat go to Springfield rather than Warren County. And they can sacrifice their Safe D Akron seat for a better shot at the western Cuyahoga seat.

[lfromnj]

https://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/pdf_viewer/pdf_viewer.aspx?pdf=920062.pdf

https://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/pdf_viewer/pdf_viewer.aspx?pdf=920067.pdf
Objections

[ibagli]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1498736137728413698?t=TCcfkdgQ6SKOsHiWpEH4NA...

lol

[lfromnj]

lol

Chabot's district is pretty similar to Michigan's 3rd at Biden +8.

[OBD]

they somehow made it even worse lmao

[Roll Roons]

Frankly, if a state Supreme Court strikes down a map, they should be required to draw a replacement.

None of this crap.