Ohio redistricting thread

[lfromnj]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

Oops I did not know Ohio was projected to lose a district. I'll try it again. Are there restrictions on county splits with the new commission?

Hamilton is allowed to be split in this area other counties aren't
edit:  Butler should probably be allowed to be split too and Clermont maybe and not sure about Warren.



If you gonna calculate it anyway do me a favor and calculate this green district. District Looks around Trump +4.5 eyeballing it with obama 08 51.7 and Mccain 46.9 and an R+2.00 PVI when every county in this district trended D in 2012 and Scioto swung D and im pretty sure Cinci should have swung D in 2012 due to black turnout, so im eyeballing an even even PVI in 2012 which means R+4 or Clinton +2-8 which is Trump +6 and then I am probably overestimating it so its around Trump +4.5 to 5.

This district is equalized for 2018 pop.

Here you go:

https://districtr.org/edit/3689

Trump +4.44

Thanks a lot


Actually forgot about west Cinci burbs probably being equivalent to the deep south, the most eastern county is actually only Trump 66% but I think this might be closer to Trump 75% with better turnout.(BTW city splits are forced here due to DRA precincts but split precincts I think are still legal so just pretend the cities aren't split here.

edit: Wow just checked roughly and its around trump 78%. Scioto county is Trump 66% but has a very skewed PVI of R+11 due to Obama almost winning it in it in 2012 so replacing those 70k people with these 70k should boost Ohio 1st to Trump +5 or even +5.5, which is actually the current form.

Considering the current Ohio 1st is around there Chabot would be relatively happy with that.

[LimoLiberal]

The most Republican district I could make on DistrictR with the city of Cincinnati + blood-red rurals was Trump +4.

Did you include for 2018 pop and 15 districts?, best idea is to trace that district.

Oops I did not know Ohio was projected to lose a district. I'll try it again. Are there restrictions on county splits with the new commission?

Hamilton is allowed to be split in this area other counties aren't
edit:  Butler should probably be allowed to be split too and Clermont maybe and not sure about Warren.



If you gonna calculate it anyway do me a favor and calculate this green district. District Looks around Trump +4.5 eyeballing it with obama 08 51.7 and Mccain 46.9 and an R+2.00 PVI when every county in this district trended D in 2012 and Scioto swung D and im pretty sure Cinci should have swung D in 2012 due to black turnout, so im eyeballing an even even PVI in 2012 which means R+4 or Clinton +2-8 which is Trump +6 and then I am probably overestimating it so its around Trump +4.5 to 5.

This district is equalized for 2018 pop.

Here you go:

https://districtr.org/edit/3689

Trump +4.44

Thanks a lot


Actually forgot about west Cinci burbs probably being equivalent to the deep south, the most eastern county is actually only Trump 66% but I think this might be closer to Trump 75% with better turnout.(BTW city splits are forced here due to DRA precincts but split precincts I think are still legal so just pretend the cities aren't split here.

edit: Wow just checked roughly and its around trump 78%. Scioto county is Trump 66% but has a very skewed PVI of R+11 due to Obama almost winning it in it in 2012 so replacing those 70k people with these 70k should boost Ohio 1st to Trump +5 or even +5.5, which is actually the current form.

Considering the current Ohio 1st is around there Chabot would be relatively happy with that.

I just made a Trump +8 district using the East Cincy burbs 

[LimoLiberal]

https://districtr.org/edit/3690

Trump +8 using the city of Cincinnati and the West Cincinnati burbs and some deep red counties to the east.

[lfromnj]

https://districtr.org/edit/3690

Trump +8 using the city of Cincinnati and the East Cincinnati burbs and some deep red counties to the east.

You mean West Cinci burbs as I see on the map?
Anyway I think its still "legal" and possible to gerrymander Cincinatti out of its rightful representation of at worst a Likely D seat(if one were to remove just a few black suburbs in north central hamilton.
Thanks a lot Limo for the info.

The main worry for not conceding the Cinci seat for the GOP now is a possible courtstrike down which could lead to a definite seat loss in columbus and 1 or 2 seats lost in the North, theres obviously almost no risk of a dummymander in Cincinatti as a dummymander would mean losing more than 1 seat in this region which is literally impossible

[LimoLiberal]

https://districtr.org/edit/3690

Trump +8 using the city of Cincinnati and the East Cincinnati burbs and some deep red counties to the east.

You mean West Cinci burbs as I see on the map?
Anyway I think its still "legal" and possible to gerrymander Cincinatti out of its rightful representation.

Yeah, that's what I meant.

I had no idea western Hamilton county was so Republican. Seems like it's very white and lower middle class.

[Oryxslayer]

https://districtr.org/edit/3690

Trump +8 using the city of Cincinnati and the East Cincinnati burbs and some deep red counties to the east.

You mean West Cinci burbs as I see on the map?
Anyway I think its still "legal" and possible to gerrymander Cincinatti out of its rightful representation.

Yeah, that's what I meant.

I had no idea western Hamilton county was so Republican. Seems like it's very white and lower middle class.

Western Hamilton is culturally part of the 3 suburban counties to the north and east, which are all blood red. Under a fair map, one could make the Cincinnati seat truly safe D by choosing to remove these Western burbs.

[lfromnj]

Btw both Chabot and Wenstrup are from Cinci but Wenstrup represents the Eastern counties so he would actually represent the Cinci district so this makes it a bit easier for the Democrats.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/95fc5983-bb04-4e15-9537-cb041eb9f2f8

Here's a pretty fair Ohio map with the new populations. Lack of 2016 data makes an accurate analysis impossible, but here's the numbers how I'd rate the districts.

District 1: D+4. This is a pretty fair Hamilton County district, losing some heavily GOP chunks in the east to the 2nd district. Chabot would be in trouble here, though his defeat wouldn't quite be a sure thing. Lean D

District 2: R+19. This district takes in the counties surrounding Cincinatti, and is predictably very Republican. Wenstrup's from Cincy but I'm guessing he runs here and wins. Safe R

District 3: R+3. This district, anchored on Dayton, also takes in Springfield, Middletown, and Fairborn. Current trends mean that this district is probably going to stay Republican (probably voted Trump by at least 5), though it could be competitive in a wave. Mike Turner would represent this district, which is slightly bluer than its previous iteration (current 10th district). Likely R

District 4: R+23. This Western Ohio district is obviously Safe R, but who ultimately represents it could be interesting. Warren Davidson of Troy and Jim Jordan of Lima both reside in this district, and there aren't really any logical districts to jump to for them. The primary battle could be dramatic, though the GE certainly won't be. Safe R

District 5: D+4. Unless Bob Latta carpetbags to the nearby 10th to primary Bob Gibbs or retires, this district's 2022 election would be a Representative vs. Representative between Latta (of Bowling Green) and 9th District Rep. Marcy Kaptur (of Toledo). It would definitely be a close race - Kaptur probably wins in a Trump midterm (likewise for Latta in a Biden midterm, though he'd be less favored) though Republican chances for this district probably improve as the decade goes on. Lean D, Tossup after 2025

District 6: R+17. While Steve Stivers techically lives outside of the district, he probably inherits this seat. He probably won't mind, especially as this district is significantly to the right of his old one. Safe R

District 7: D+14. Gets a lot more compact and a little redder, but Joyce Beatty is safe here. Safe D

District 8: EVEN. Troy Balderson gets drawn out of a significantly bluer iteration of his old district, which now includes only northern Franklin County, Delaware County, and western Licking County. Danny O'Connor could definitely make a comeback in one of Ohio's few Dem-trending districts. Tossup, Lean D after 2025

District 9: R+12. Rep. Bill Johnson is the natural pick for this Ohio River seat, but Troy Balderson gets drawn in here too, making for an interesting primary battle (should Balderson abandon his old district with unfavorable trends). Regardless, Safe R

District 10: R+17. This district shifts west relative to the old 7th, but Bob Gibbs should be secure here unless Bob Latta doesn't want to face Rep. Kaptur. Safe R

District 11: R+10. The new 11th district, based around Canton, is pretty safely Republican. Thing is, it's not clear who would run for this seat. Anthony Gonzalez could carpetbag here if he doesn't want to face competitive elections in the neighboring 12th, though. Safe R

District 12: D+3. The Mistake by the Lake gets fixed, as Lorain County gets it's own seat (and also takes a chunk of western Cuyahoga). Gonzalez lives here, though he may not want to run here given the district's Democratic lean. Still, given Ohio trends, the GOP's going to be competitive here no matter what. Tossup

District 13: D+27, Cleveland, yawn, Marcia Fudge is fine. Safe D

District 14: D+3. This Akron-based district, thanks to GOP rurals the district takes in for population balance (in addition to losing Youngstown), is actually very competitive. It's technically an open seat, though Tim Ryan probably carpetbags here. Lean D with Ryan, Tossup as an open seat

District 15: R+1 Youngstown, and thus Tim Ryan, get drawn into this seat because population balance. Interestingly, Dave Joyce actually gets drawn into the new 13th, but he'd obviously run here (as he lives in Cuyahoga, which this district doesn't protrude into). Ryan probably goes for the 14th, but the 15th is actually a good deal to the left of Joyce's current district, and could fall in a wave. Lean R

In conclusion, this is a 8 R, 4-5 D, and 2-3 T map, though it could go to 13-3 or 14-2 if things get really bad for the Democrats in Ohio (likewise, if Republicans fail here, it could go to 9-7 D. Geography sucks).

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/95fc5983-bb04-4e15-9537-cb041eb9f2f8

Here's a pretty fair Ohio map with the new populations. Lack of 2016 data makes an accurate analysis impossible, but here's the numbers how I'd rate the districts.

District 1: D+4. This is a pretty fair Hamilton County district, losing some heavily GOP chunks in the east to the 2nd district. Chabot would be in trouble here, though his defeat wouldn't quite be a sure thing. Lean D

District 2: R+19. This district takes in the counties surrounding Cincinatti, and is predictably very Republican. Wenstrup's from Cincy but I'm guessing he runs here and wins. Safe R

District 3: R+3. This district, anchored on Dayton, also takes in Springfield, Middletown, and Fairborn. Current trends mean that this district is probably going to stay Republican (probably voted Trump by at least 5), though it could be competitive in a wave. Mike Turner would represent this district, which is slightly bluer than its previous iteration (current 10th district). Likely R

District 4: R+23. This Western Ohio district is obviously Safe R, but who ultimately represents it could be interesting. Warren Davidson of Troy and Jim Jordan of Lima both reside in this district, and there aren't really any logical districts to jump to for them. The primary battle could be dramatic, though the GE certainly won't be. Safe R

District 5: D+4. Unless Bob Latta carpetbags to the nearby 10th to primary Bob Gibbs or retires, this district's 2022 election would be a Representative vs. Representative between Latta (of Bowling Green) and 9th District Rep. Marcy Kaptur (of Toledo). It would definitely be a close race - Kaptur probably wins in a Trump midterm (likewise for Latta in a Biden midterm, though he'd be less favored) though Republican chances for this district probably improve as the decade goes on. Lean D, Tossup after 2025

District 6: R+17. While Steve Stivers techically lives outside of the district, he probably inherits this seat. He probably won't mind, especially as this district is significantly to the right of his old one. Safe R

District 7: D+14. Gets a lot more compact and a little redder, but Joyce Beatty is safe here. Safe D

District 8: EVEN. Troy Balderson gets drawn out of a significantly bluer iteration of his old district, which now includes only northern Franklin County, Delaware County, and western Licking County. Danny O'Connor could definitely make a comeback in one of Ohio's few Dem-trending districts. Tossup, Lean D after 2025

District 9: R+12. Rep. Bill Johnson is the natural pick for this Ohio River seat, but Troy Balderson gets drawn in here too, making for an interesting primary battle (should Balderson abandon his old district with unfavorable trends). Regardless, Safe R

District 10: R+17. This district shifts west relative to the old 7th, but Bob Gibbs should be secure here unless Bob Latta doesn't want to face Rep. Kaptur. Safe R

District 11: R+10. The new 11th district, based around Canton, is pretty safely Republican. Thing is, it's not clear who would run for this seat. Anthony Gonzalez could carpetbag here if he doesn't want to face competitive elections in the neighboring 12th, though. Safe R

District 12: D+3. The Mistake by the Lake gets fixed, as Lorain County gets it's own seat (and also takes a chunk of western Cuyahoga). Gonzalez lives here, though he may not want to run here given the district's Democratic lean. Still, given Ohio trends, the GOP's going to be competitive here no matter what. Tossup

District 13: D+27, Cleveland, yawn, Marcia Fudge is fine. Safe D

District 14: D+3. This Akron-based district, thanks to GOP rurals the district takes in for population balance (in addition to losing Youngstown), is actually very competitive. It's technically an open seat, though Tim Ryan probably carpetbags here. Lean D with Ryan, Tossup as an open seat

District 15: R+1 Youngstown, and thus Tim Ryan, get drawn into this seat because population balance. Interestingly, Dave Joyce actually gets drawn into the new 13th, but he'd obviously run here (as he lives in Cuyahoga, which this district doesn't protrude into). Ryan probably goes for the 14th, but the 15th is actually a good deal to the left of Joyce's current district, and could fall in a wave. Lean R

In conclusion, this is a 8 R, 4-5 D, and 2-3 T map, though it could go to 13-3 or 14-2 if things get really bad for the Democrats in Ohio (likewise, if Republicans fail here, it could go to 9-7 D. Geography sucks).

Need to fix up district 12, it splits Cleveland, the Hamilton Seat is Safe D though, you just removed a few light red burbs in the east that are trending D but its Clinton +12 if I had to eyeball, the North Columbus seat is close, around Clinton +6 so Likely D really. there are literally 9 seats left of the composite average and probably 8 left of Trumps percentage(15 is probably like Trump +12.)

[OBD]

snip

Need to fix up district 12, it splits Cleveland, the Hamilton Seat is Safe D though, you just removed a few light red burbs in the east that are trending D but its Clinton +12 if I had to eyeball, the North Columbus seat is close, around Clinton +6 so Likely D really. there are literally 9 seats left of the composite average and probably 8 left of Trumps percentage(15 is probably like Trump +12.)

Alright, so fixing the 12/13 boundary moves District 12 to about D+1.15, FYI (which would probably make a Tilt R district). Thanks for the commentary, though!

[lfromnj]

Anyway assuming you split Columbus to be the majority of two Cds rather than mostly keeping in one CD(a perfectly valid COI split considering how ugly Columbus is.) D's don't really have a major geographical problem in Ohio besides the Cleveland VRA district, they gave a just barely Safe D district in Hamilton and 2 Nice districts in Columbus while getting 3-5 potential tossups in the rest of the state) It is tough to draw more than 4 Really Safe Districts for Democrats in a fair map but thats the nature of the map in a red state. Pretty similar to perhaps 6 district Oregon in which you might have 1 Safe R seat but perhaps 2-3 competitive seats in a fair map

[Tintrlvr]

I don't love OH-09 diving all of the way into the Columbus suburbs. Despite the county lines, NW Fairfield County should be in one of the Columbus-based districts. The cities of Columbus and Reynoldsburg both cross county lines into Fairfield County, so it's just a matter of whether you prioritize counties or municipal boundaries. Pickerington should probably go in a Columbus-based district, too.

OH-03 is a bit awkward, too. I would try to have the cut into the Cincinnati suburban ring come from OH-06 into Clermont County and then put more or all of Greene County into OH-03. Alternatively, if you're going to cut from Dayton into the Cincinnati ring counties, it should be into Warren County (Franklin, Springboro), which is sort of Dayton suburbia and is a straight shot on I-75 from Dayton.

[Padfoot]

Here's my take at a fair map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/785b5330-36ae-49b8-98fe-56bd5ba94008

It's probably a riskier map than the Democrats would like but I think it reflects the partisan make-up of the state well and has potential for some interesting mid-decade shifts.



Safe R Seats:
OH-2 South Appalachia
OH-4 Marion-Mansfield
OH-5 Lima-Springfield
OH-8 Cincy Suburban
OH-15 East Appalachia

Likely R
OH-6 Canton
OH-10 Dayton

Lean R
OH-12 West Columbus

Toss-up
OH-14 Youngstown

Lean D
OH-7 Lorain
OH-13 Akron

Likely D
OH-1 Cincinnati
OH-9 Toledo

Safe D
OH-3 East Columbus
OH-11 Cleveland

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

[Tintrlvr]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

[bagelman]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

Looks compact enough. But I suppose if your goal is to help Chabot stay in power...

[Tintrlvr]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

"Compactness" is just a proxy for COIs. It doesn't have value in and of itself. Aesthetics as an inherent matter (as opposed to how they might implicate COIs) aren't a consideration for redistricting.

[Nyvin]

Splitting Columbus east/west actually works out way better for building up an AA opportunity seat.   I could actually see them doing something like that in the commission.

As for the Cincy suburbs - I'm kinda in favor of a district made up of Butler + Warren + Greene.   I know Greene is more associated with Dayton, but it's still suburbia like Butler and Warren.   You can still make a great Dayton district with Miami and Clark (the 2019 population numbers work pretty good for this, it's very close).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I gotta say, I don't like these Cincy suburban districts which completely encircle the Cincy district. IMO a wedge going north and a wedge going east is a better map.

Why would you draw two rural-suburban districts instead of one district that is clearly suburban?

Because shape-wise, it just isn't that compact. I get that you need to take into account COIs, but I like my districts to look more like blobs or rectangles than bend around a lot. Besides, a district from Butler County up towards Dayton is arguably more suburban and consistently built up than this bent district that keeps getting proposed.

"Compactness" is just a proxy for COIs. It doesn't have value in and of itself. Aesthetics as an inherent matter (as opposed to how they might implicate COIs) aren't a consideration for redistricting.

Maps looking pretty is absolutely an important issue!

As for the Cincy suburbs - I'm kinda in favor of a district made up of Butler + Warren + Greene.   I know Greene is more associated with Dayton, but it's still suburbia like Butler and Warren.   You can still make a great Dayton district with Miami and Clark (the 2019 population numbers work pretty good for this, it's very close).

Yup, I agree.

Splitting Columbus east/west actually works out way better for building up an AA opportunity seat.   I could actually see them doing something like that in the commission.

Pairing the northwest quadrant of Franklin with Delaware makes a clean, coherent CD and leaves the remaining 3/4 of Franklin as AA opportunity.

[lfromnj]

Again I still don't understand how taking in 30k voters of Hamilton and building a concentric district around it using almost 3 whole counties isn't pretty.

[bagelman]

Again I still don't understand how taking in 30k voters of Hamilton and building a concentric district around it using almost 3 whole counties isn't pretty.

It is: ignore the loud minority.

[Nyvin]

Something like this would work




https://davesredistricting.org/join/6f2d40fb-07b2-4ce1-bfa7-27b78b8adac8

[lfromnj]

This NE map has 0 major county splits, doesn't have a Dem reach for Warren or Youngstown and doesn't split any cities either as far as I can tell.
Only county splits are The East west Cuyahoga split,a little bit of suburban Cleveland left on the east , rural Portage taken out and only takes a bit of rural Portage and one town from Summit. And the Mahoning is kept whole besides Columbiana if one considers that Mahoning. PVI for the red is D+0.98 but it still voted for Clinton by my estimates as the 3 main counties voted for Clinton by a few hundred while the akron precints removed are swing, the portage precints removed are deep red while the Cleveland burbs are light red. I highly reccomend everyone does this for NE Ohio and work the rest of the map from there.

[Oryxslayer]

This NE map has 0 major county splits, doesn't have a Dem reach for Warren or Youngstown and doesn't split any cities either as far as I can tell.
Only county splits are The East west Cuyahoga split,a little bit of suburban Cleveland left on the east , rural Portage taken out and only takes a bit of rural Portage and one town from Summit. And the Mahoning is kept whole besides Columbiana if one considers that Mahoning. PVI for the red is D+0.98 but it still voted for Clinton by my estimates as the 3 main counties voted for Clinton by a few hundred while the akron precints removed are swing, the portage precints removed are deep red while the Cleveland burbs are light red. I highly reccomend everyone does this for NE Ohio and work the rest of the map from there.

I'm not sure which party would take offense at the entire region becoming a battleground...but someone would. Reminds me of this weird map proposed by the LoWV during their 2018 gerrymandering lawsuit.