VCU poll : Trump is stronger than expected in VA : Biden leads / Sanders trails

[Frenchrepublican]

https://oppo.vcu.edu/media/oppo/Winter2019-20Release1.pdf

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump vs Biden :
Biden : 49%
Trump : 46%

Trump vs Sanders
Trump : 48%
Sanders : 45%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So let's get this straight.

Trump is only getting 4% of democrats, and Biden is getting 9% of Republicans. Trump is beating Biden among independents only 45-43.

Yet Biden is only up by 3%?

In 2016, https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/virginia/president Virginia was 40% democratic - 33% republican - 26% independent. 6% of both parties crossed over, and Trump won independents 48-43%. Yet Clinton won by 5.25%.

What did this poll only Virginia Beach voters?

I say we JUNK IT!

[Skye]

They also polled Warren and she ties Trump 47/47.

[Frenchrepublican]

They also polled Warren and she ties Trump 47/47.

Yeah, true

[Frenchrepublican]

So let's get this straight.

Trump is only getting 4% of democrats, and Biden is getting 9% of Republicans. Trump is beating Biden among independents only 45-43.

Yet Biden is only up by 3%?

In 2016, https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/virginia/president Virginia was 40% democratic - 33% republican - 26% independent. 6% of both parties crossed over, and Trump won independents 48-43%. Yet Clinton won by 5.25%.

What did this poll only Virginia Beach voters?

I say we JUNK IT!

I agree, these numbers are too rozy for Trump, but now this poll is still far more credible than the one which had Trump losing in GA by 5

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

180 voters were contacted aged 45 and under VS OVER 600 for olds in the head to head matchups.  C'mon, ya goofs!  Dive in a little.  And then they claim 27% of the poll was voters between 18-35 later on.  They can't even get their own crosstabs right! 

JUNK IT.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polls always underestimate D support in Virginia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash it, Warner is running unopposed, the R running, is running for Va2
 Bernie isnt losing the state with Warner

[Xing]

About as believable as Trump losing IA/OH.

[Roblox]

Same energy as that poolhouse poll from last year showing Kaine leading only 50-46.

[wbrocks67]

What is with these junk Virginia polls lately

[Florida Man for Crime]

180 voters were contacted aged 45 and under VS OVER 600 for olds in the head to head matchups.  C'mon, ya goofs!  Dive in a little.  And then they claim 27% of the poll was voters between 18-35 later on.  They can't even get their own crosstabs right! 

JUNK IT.

I haven't bothered to look at the poll because I don't care that much, but sounds like that may be an issue of weighting the sample (which would be quite normal for polls)?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

After 2016, I am not going to automatically assume anything about an election with Trump on the ticket. I can't see him winning VA, but he seems to be running stronger in these polls that I would expect

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Stronger than expected?" He will lose by the high single digits at a minimum. I'm not someone who rejects polls that easily, but he will not be competitive here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After 2016, I am not going to automatically assume anything about an election with Trump on the ticket. I can't see him winning VA, but he seems to be running stronger in these polls that I would expect

Biden is corrupted and Bernie is ultra liberal, Dems dont learn from last time which handed them defeat with Hilary, anyone that says Biden isnt corrupted isnt telling the truth.  Both parties are corrupted. UKRAINE and Russia gives both parties corrupted donations.   We just didnt find out about it until 2016, when Russia influenced the election

[President Johnson]

All Democrats would win Virginia without a major struggle. Biden would perform best though. Wouldn't surprise me if he carries the state by ten points, with something like 54-44%. Bernie and Liz would win about with about 52-45%.

[Woody]

Lean D for now.

[Old Man Willow]

Safe D. Trump didn't start the state's leftward lurch, but he's certainly accelerated it in recent years. He is the worst possible candidate for the state. The idea of it voting for him is preposterous.

Economics do not determine elections anymore. MO voted against RTW by almost 70%, this doesn't stop them or other WWC from voting overwhelmingly Republican. College educated whites in Fairfax and Loudoun counties hate Trump as much as Appalachian whites hate Democrats. They will vote for Sanders no matter what his tax policy is.

[Frenchrepublican]

All Democrats would win Virginia without a major struggle. Biden would perform best though. Wouldn't surprise me if he carries the state by ten points, with something like 54-44%. Bernie and Liz would win about with about 52-45%.

Trump is unlikely to lose VA by double digits, sure the state is likely not winnable for Trump, but he still has a solid floor of 45%. Against Biden I think he would lose 45/53 while he would lose 47/50 against Warren, the only republican who has lost Va by double digits over the past 10 years was Corey Stewart and Trump is a far better candidate than this dude.

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, if this was a poll showing a result like this in ME/MN we'd never hear the end of it on Atlas. VA isn't Titanium D, get over it.

Arlington County Obama 2008/Obama 2012/McAuliffe 2013/Warner 2014/Clinton 2016/Northam 2017/Kaine 2018 pro-impeachment gov workers 4 Don

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lol, if this was a poll showing a result like this in ME/MN we'd never hear the end of it on Atlas. VA isn't Titanium D, get over it.

Arlington County Obama 2008/Obama 2012/McAuliffe 2013/Warner 2014/Clinton 2016/Northam 2017/Kaine 2018 pro-impeachment gov workers 4 Don

I assume in 2015 you were mocking the notion that Clinton 92/Clinton 96/Gore 00/Kerry 04/Obama 08/Obama 012 Wisconsin rural voters would ever vote for Trump? No one thinks Arlington is voting for Trump, but is it really too hard to imagine Trump doing well in the bottom half of the state and getting 47%+ of the vote in Loudoun County against a literal socialist? Have you ever been to any of these places?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It just shows the need for Sanders, if he is the nominee to pick Buttigieg as a running mate, Buttigieg can nail down VA, with navy in Arlington, VA

[UncleSam]

180 voters were contacted aged 45 and under VS OVER 600 for olds in the head to head matchups.  C'mon, ya goofs!  Dive in a little.  And then they claim 27% of the poll was voters between 18-35 later on.  They can't even get their own crosstabs right! 

JUNK IT.

Gonna assume you don’t know how polling works. Firms generally weight their sample respondents to match actual voting turnout predictions because it is very difficult to get some demographic groups (such as young people and African Americans) to respond to pollsters.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol, if this was a poll showing a result like this in ME/MN we'd never hear the end of it on Atlas. VA isn't Titanium D, get over it.

Arlington County Obama 2008/Obama 2012/McAuliffe 2013/Warner 2014/Clinton 2016/Northam 2017/Kaine 2018 pro-impeachment gov workers 4 Don

Trump will of course getting destroyed in Arlington county but he still has some round to gain in southwest VA.