How can Sanders win the IA primary?

[RGM2609]

What does he need to do in order to carry IA?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

-1) He needs a big, super last minute Warren surge - big enough to take a big bite out of Pete’s support, but not enough for her to actually win the state.

-2) He needs Joe Biden to continue playing poorly with IA primary voters

-3) He needs to get his more extreme supporters to stop doing everything they can to antagonize liberals who bare Sanders no personal ill will, but - rightly or wrongly - still believe the “Berniecrats are crazy people who won’t vote unless Sanders gets nominated” narrative.  Basically, his supporters need to do a tonal/stylistic version of “Get Clean for Gene [McCarthy].”  

Of course, Sanders winning Iowa instead of Pete or Warren would be great news for Biden since of the three, Bernie would be the least likely to beat him in the primaries.  I’d argue that unlike the other three frontrunners, Bernie lacks a realistic path to winning the nomination.  Pete and Warren each have a few clear constituencies they need to make inroads with, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll pull it off.  Sanders has his core supporters locked up, but he’s not someone I can see expanding their base too much beyond that.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

We need oaklawandi/Cory Booker of Calif. to weigh in here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's not that difficult. As long as he gets enough enthusiastic supporters to caucus for him and take him above the threshold, he can siphon off enough Warren supporters (as well as others) who are non-viable and end up winning in a number of precincts he would have otherwise lost in. Considering Biden's base isn't exactly as fired up to caucus and his ground game has been lacking up until recently, I see very real openings for Sanders.

Warren's support base is extremely different than that of Sanders.  In yet another example of how little policy matters compared to silliness like "hmm...I don't know that I like the cut of their jib," Sanders would probably have better luck peeling off Biden supporters than Warren supporters.

[President Johnson]

-1) He needs a big, super last minute Warren surge - big enough to take a big bite out of Pete’s support, but not enough for her to actually win the state.

-2) He needs Joe Biden to continue playing poorly with IA primary voters

-3) He needs to get his more extreme supporters to stop doing everything they can to antagonize liberals who bare Sanders no personal ill will, but - rightly or wrongly - still believe the “Berniecrats are crazy people who won’t vote unless Sanders gets nominated” narrative.  Basically, his supporters need to do a tonal/stylistic version of “Get Clean for Gene [McCarthy].”  

Of course, Sanders winning Iowa instead of Pete or Warren would be great news for Biden since of the three, Bernie would be the least likely to beat him in the primaries.  I’d argue that unlike the other three frontrunners, Bernie lacks a realistic path to winning the nomination.  Pete and Warren each have a few clear constituencies they need to make inroads with, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll pull it off.  Sanders has his core supporters locked up, but he’s not someone I can see expanding their base too much beyond that.

I actually think Buttigieg winning Iowa would be better for Biden. Bernie has more appeal to minorities, including African Americans, than Mayor Pete has at this point. Of course Bernie won't win the black vote, but he could end up well enough among them to pressure the Biden campaign.

[Xing]

If polls aren't picking up on enthusiasm for Sanders, he certainly could. I actually think he's more likely to win IA than Buttigieg, even if that's an "unpopular" opinion.

[Galeel]

Easy enough. Get his base out, and have Biden/Pete/Warren split the remaining voters up enough that Bernie comes out on top.

[Eraserhead]

I doubt he can win the Iowa primary since there isn't going to be one.

[Eraserhead]

-1) He needs a big, super last minute Warren surge - big enough to take a big bite out of Pete’s support, but not enough for her to actually win the state.

-2) He needs Joe Biden to continue playing poorly with IA primary voters

-3) He needs to get his more extreme supporters to stop doing everything they can to antagonize liberals who bare Sanders no personal ill will, but - rightly or wrongly - still believe the “Berniecrats are crazy people who won’t vote unless Sanders gets nominated” narrative.  Basically, his supporters need to do a tonal/stylistic version of “Get Clean for Gene [McCarthy].”  

Of course, Sanders winning Iowa instead of Pete or Warren would be great news for Biden since of the three, Bernie would be the least likely to beat him in the primaries.  I’d argue that unlike the other three frontrunners, Bernie lacks a realistic path to winning the nomination.  Pete and Warren each have a few clear constituencies they need to make inroads with, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll pull it off.  Sanders has his core supporters locked up, but he’s not someone I can see expanding their base too much beyond that.

You have to be on some serious drugs to think that Pete Buttigieg has a more realistic path to the nomination than Sanders would with an Iowa win. No offense!

Warren probably doesn't either but that's somewhat debatable at least.

[Gone to Carolina]

It's not that difficult. As long as he gets enough enthusiastic supporters to caucus for him and take him above the threshold, he can siphon off enough Warren supporters (as well as others) who are non-viable and end up winning in a number of precincts he would have otherwise lost in. Considering Biden's base isn't exactly as fired up to caucus and his ground game has been lacking up until recently, I see very real openings for Sanders.

Warren's support base is extremely different than that of Sanders.  In yet another example of how little policy matters compared to silliness like "hmm...I don't know that I like the cut of their jib," Sanders would probably have better luck peeling off Biden supporters than Warren supporters.

The polls I've seen that ask for second choices tend to have Sanders as the most popular second choice with Warren supporters. It's not out of the question that Sanders could finish first in Iowa due to Warren falling below viability at a lot of caucus sites.

So to answer the OP, I think all Sanders needs to do for an Iowa win is turn out his core voters and stay in a close race for the top (with whomever that may be) and push Warren below viability in much of the state. 538's polling average in Iowa shows this is far from unlikely.

Buttigieg - 20.9%
Biden - 19.2%
Sanders - 17.9%
Warren - 12.4%

[Mr. Morden]

It's not out of the question that Sanders could finish first in Iowa due to Warren falling below viability at a lot of caucus sites.

As noted here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351212.0

and elsewhere, this year for the first time the Iowa Dems will also be releasing the initial popular vote #s, from before reallocation.  Therefore in the scenario you imagine, where Sanders squeaks by on 2nd choices, it would actually be a split result, where Sanders wins on one tally of votes, but another candidate wins on another.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

-1) He needs a big, super last minute Warren surge - big enough to take a big bite out of Pete’s support, but not enough for her to actually win the state.

-2) He needs Joe Biden to continue playing poorly with IA primary voters

-3) He needs to get his more extreme supporters to stop doing everything they can to antagonize liberals who bare Sanders no personal ill will, but - rightly or wrongly - still believe the “Berniecrats are crazy people who won’t vote unless Sanders gets nominated” narrative.  Basically, his supporters need to do a tonal/stylistic version of “Get Clean for Gene [McCarthy].”  

Of course, Sanders winning Iowa instead of Pete or Warren would be great news for Biden since of the three, Bernie would be the least likely to beat him in the primaries.  I’d argue that unlike the other three frontrunners, Bernie lacks a realistic path to winning the nomination.  Pete and Warren each have a few clear constituencies they need to make inroads with, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll pull it off.  Sanders has his core supporters locked up, but he’s not someone I can see expanding their base too much beyond that.

You have to be on some serious drugs to think that Pete Buttigieg has a more realistic path to the nomination than Sanders would with an Iowa win. No offense!

Warren probably doesn't either but that's somewhat debatable at least.

The path to beating Biden is running the table with non-AA voters after sweeping the first three states.  Buttigieg and Warren can do that, Bernie can’t.

[Eraserhead]

-1) He needs a big, super last minute Warren surge - big enough to take a big bite out of Pete’s support, but not enough for her to actually win the state.

-2) He needs Joe Biden to continue playing poorly with IA primary voters

-3) He needs to get his more extreme supporters to stop doing everything they can to antagonize liberals who bare Sanders no personal ill will, but - rightly or wrongly - still believe the “Berniecrats are crazy people who won’t vote unless Sanders gets nominated” narrative.  Basically, his supporters need to do a tonal/stylistic version of “Get Clean for Gene [McCarthy].”  

Of course, Sanders winning Iowa instead of Pete or Warren would be great news for Biden since of the three, Bernie would be the least likely to beat him in the primaries.  I’d argue that unlike the other three frontrunners, Bernie lacks a realistic path to winning the nomination.  Pete and Warren each have a few clear constituencies they need to make inroads with, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll pull it off.  Sanders has his core supporters locked up, but he’s not someone I can see expanding their base too much beyond that.

You have to be on some serious drugs to think that Pete Buttigieg has a more realistic path to the nomination than Sanders would with an Iowa win. No offense!

Warren probably doesn't either but that's somewhat debatable at least.

The path to beating Biden is running the table with non-AA voters after sweeping the first three states.  Buttigieg and Warren can do that, Bernie can’t.

If you think anybody is going to win the nomination without any black support you're kidding yourself. Sanders and Warren have some. Buttigieg has virtually none. Sanders is also winning the hispanic vote outright in most polls. How is Buttigieg going to win Nevada? He doesn't have any hispanic support either.

On top of that, there isn't any evidence that Buttigieg or Warren would clean up with white people. They are only performing strongly with highly educated and wealthy types.

[Donerail]

Sanders can win by getting more votes than his opponents. Hope this clears things up.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

-1) He needs a big, super last minute Warren surge - big enough to take a big bite out of Pete’s support, but not enough for her to actually win the state.

-2) He needs Joe Biden to continue playing poorly with IA primary voters

-3) He needs to get his more extreme supporters to stop doing everything they can to antagonize liberals who bare Sanders no personal ill will, but - rightly or wrongly - still believe the “Berniecrats are crazy people who won’t vote unless Sanders gets nominated” narrative.  Basically, his supporters need to do a tonal/stylistic version of “Get Clean for Gene [McCarthy].”  

Of course, Sanders winning Iowa instead of Pete or Warren would be great news for Biden since of the three, Bernie would be the least likely to beat him in the primaries.  I’d argue that unlike the other three frontrunners, Bernie lacks a realistic path to winning the nomination.  Pete and Warren each have a few clear constituencies they need to make inroads with, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll pull it off.  Sanders has his core supporters locked up, but he’s not someone I can see expanding their base too much beyond that.

You have to be on some serious drugs to think that Pete Buttigieg has a more realistic path to the nomination than Sanders would with an Iowa win. No offense!

Warren probably doesn't either but that's somewhat debatable at least.

The path to beating Biden is running the table with non-AA voters after sweeping the first three states.  Buttigieg and Warren can do that, Bernie can’t.

If you think anybody is going to win the nomination without any black support you're kidding yourself. Sanders and Warren have some. Buttigieg has virtually none. Sanders is also winning the hispanic vote outright in most polls. How is Buttigieg going to win Nevada? He doesn't have any hispanic support either.

On top of that, there isn't any evidence that Buttigieg or Warren would clean up with white people. They are only performing strongly with highly educated and wealthy types.

I think Buttigieg can get some northern AA support if he wins Iowa and NH, Bernie wins NV and Biden comes third or worse in all three.

[Mr. Smith]

The same things he did to get the Caucus to a coin flip against Hillary.

[junior chįmp]

Magic

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders can win by getting more votes than his opponents. Hope this clears things up.

Unfortunately that is impossible, given that the Iowa primary doesn't exist.  Therefore, all of the candidates will get zero votes in the Iowa primary. 

[RGM2609]

If you've got nothing constructive to add to the discussion, please refrain yourself from being a part of it, many thanks.

[ElectionsGuy]

He'd win it if it were held today. Sanders has far larger % of committed supporters than Warren/Buttigieg, which matters in a caucus. Usually, the people with the greatest organization and enthusiasm (Sanders, Cruz in 2016) overperform their polls, and that's exactly what I expect again in 2020.

[Tender Branson]

In an alternative timeline in which IA has a primary instead of a caucus ...

[RGM2609]

In an alternative timeline in which IA has a primary instead of a caucus ...

If you've got nothing constructive to add to the discussion, please refrain yourself from being a part of it, many thanks.

[MT Treasurer]

Hop on Joni Ernst's motorcycle and do some good old-fashioned Ride n' Roast retail politics on a 99 county tour with her

[AN63093]

I'm not sure he has to do anything particularly noteworthy to win it; unlike SC, IA has never had one candidate running away with the race and there's been a lot of movement in the top 4.  Sanders just needs his people to show up.

What he does afterwards is the big question, and I agree with a lot of what DINOTom has been saying, and I've been saying it myself for months- I'm not sure Sanders has a realistic path.  To the extent he has one, he has to win IA/NH, and likely in a decisive way.  Which wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility- he has a high floor and possibly the most loyal base of the nominees.  But he also seems to have a low ceiling- he's never been able to break out of his faction.

The problem is he hasn't been able to expand to the 3 Dem groups not in his tent- a) Biden voters that may have Sanders a second choice but are sticking with Biden for now; b) blacks; c) the group of voters that went Harris > Warren > Buttigieg.

Group B is not that critical for IA... but in any case, if A and B were going to abandon Biden, I think the signs would've been there way earlier, and we're running out of time for that.  I don't think group C is ever going to warm up to Sanders.  Now I know people on this forum keep saying things like, if the Warren and Sanders groups could just unite, they'd overtake Biden!  And yes, that might be mathematically true, but it ignores the fact that they had multiple chances to embrace Sanders and have rejected him 3 times now- he's never been the flavor-of-the-month for them.

Now why is that?  That's a more interesting question and a little beyond the point of this thread, but one reason is because they simply don't share interests with the Sanders folks.  This group are Dems mostly because of social issues and their revealed preferences through polling this entire cycle have demonstrated they're more interested in the demographics, identity, culturally affinity etc., with a candidate, and not so much their policies.  People have kept saying on this forum, if Warren would just drop out... oh please please please (or vice versa, please drop out Sanders!), well.. Warren didn't drop out per se, but she certainly declined, and lo and behold- guess where all those voters went?  Not to Sanders.

And I think it's that group which is going to keep Sanders from really getting the decisive victory he needs to have groups A and B start to re-evaluate their Biden support. 

So in short, sure- he can win IA, and it wouldn't even be that surprising to me.  But I don't know where he goes from there, even if he takes NH.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hop on Joni Ernst's motorcycle and do some good old-fashioned Ride n' Roast retail politics on a 99 county tour with her

He could help her castrate pigs.