Humphrey '68 PV% as Dem ceiling
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  Humphrey '68 PV% as Dem ceiling
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SingingAnalyst
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« on: December 17, 2019, 02:22:10 AM »

In 1968, Macomb County, in the midst of urban unrest "next door" and a strong third-party challenge, gave Hubert H. Humphrey 55.2% of the vote.

No Dem Presidential candidate since has reached or exceeded that percentage (though Obama in 2008 came close).

I can think of a few counties in which Humphrey '68 represents the "floor": Geneva, AL (4.4%); George, MS (4.9%); Itawamba, MS (6.7%); and Tishomingo, MS (6.3%). Are there any counties besides Macomb in which Humphrey's '68 performance represented a ceiling for the Dems?

Ironically (because of the relatively small number of Jews and large number of pre-Vatican II Catholics in Macomb), Humphrey's PV% among Jews (81%) may have been a ceiling of sorts: I don't believe any Dem since has reached 81% of Jews according to any reliable poll or precinct analysis (though Al Gore in 2000 came close).
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sinngael
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2019, 09:32:11 AM »

There's actually quite a few counties, too many to name individually but there are a lot in South Texas, Minnesota obviously, Massachusetts, Maine and Utah.
Other states with one or two of those counties include California, Washington, Idaho, Ohio and Wyoming

Some notable examples are Luzerne PA, Utah County, Providence RI and Greenlee AZ.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2019, 03:18:22 PM »

Macomb County was Ground Zero for Michigan's School Busing controversy in 1972.  The district containing Macomb County nearly dumped labor Democrat James O'Hara for State. Sen. David Serotkin, a Republican who got 49%.  Next door Oakland County elected a militantly conservative Republican Robert Huber (R-Troy) for one term; he was jettisoned in the 1974 Democratic wave.

It is the school busing issue that took Michigan out of the Democratic column for 20 years, despite its large number of union members.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2019, 11:39:01 PM »

Macomb County was Ground Zero for Michigan's School Busing controversy in 1972.  The district containing Macomb County nearly dumped labor Democrat James O'Hara for State. Sen. David Serotkin, a Republican who got 49%.  Next door Oakland County elected a militantly conservative Republican Robert Huber (R-Troy) for one term; he was jettisoned in the 1974 Democratic wave.

It is the school busing issue that took Michigan out of the Democratic column for 20 years, despite its large number of union members.

Carter won have won there against a Republican not from Michigan.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2019, 11:40:46 PM »

Macomb County was Ground Zero for Michigan's School Busing controversy in 1972.  The district containing Macomb County nearly dumped labor Democrat James O'Hara for State. Sen. David Serotkin, a Republican who got 49%.  Next door Oakland County elected a militantly conservative Republican Robert Huber (R-Troy) for one term; he was jettisoned in the 1974 Democratic wave.

It is the school busing issue that took Michigan out of the Democratic column for 20 years, despite its large number of union members.

He may have, as he was an anti-busing Democrat, but he had to downplay that, lest he offend his black supporters, who needed reassurance that he wasn't a wolf in sheep's clothing on racial issues in 1976. 

Carter won have won there against a Republican not from Michigan.
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