1976: Carter-Mondale (D) vs. Ford-Brooke (R)

[SingingAnalyst]

Rather than Robert Dole, President Ford nominates Edward Brooke as his running-mate.

Who wins, and how? Aftermath?

[brucejoel99]

By this time, Brooke is in his 2nd term, so he's an established figure. Also, he's not up for re-election that year. Ford decides that Carter is gonna sweep the South regardless, & picks Brooke to pick up black votes elsewhere as well as the votes of liberals attracted by voting for a black running-mate (& Carter's record on civil rights was dubious: he never spoke out against Jim Crow or segregation until after the fight was over, & then only did so in a pro-forma manner. Some liberals with strong civil-rights concerns wouldn't wanna vote for anybody tainted with the stench of Jim Crow, & Brooke would attract them & their votes). Selecting Brooke also balances the midwestern Ford's ticket with a northeasterner.

In the end, Ford/Brooke defeats Carter/Mondale.

[SingingAnalyst]

By this time, Brooke is in his 2nd term, so he's an established figure. Also, he's not up for re-election that year. Ford decides that Carter is gonna sweep the South regardless, & picks Brooke to pick up black votes elsewhere as well as the votes of liberals attracted by voting for a black running-mate (& Carter's record on civil rights was dubious: he never spoke out against Jim Crow or segregation until after the fight was over, & then only did so in a pro-forma manner. Some liberals with strong civil-rights concerns wouldn't wanna vote for anybody tainted with the stench of Jim Crow, & Brooke would attract them & their votes). Selecting Brooke also balances the midwestern Ford's ticket with a northeasterner.

In the end, Ford/Brooke defeats Carter/Mondale.

Thank you for the thoughtful analysis. Let me guess how this happens:

A few racist whites who voted for Ford IRL vote Carter or AIP; flipping OR (whose eastern part is very white, conservative, and quasi-racist) and VA to Carter.

The increased Black and minority percentage for Ford/Brooke flip HI, MS, MO, NY (huge), OH, PA, WI to Ford.

Something like this:

Carter/Mondale: 49.0% / 188 EV
Ford/Brooke: 48.7% / 350 EV


A different map, and a different nation it would be, truly!

[One Term Floridian]

This would have been historic. I agree with others here in that this would have resulted in Ford winning against Carter, although conservative turnout would be way down at the prospect of voting for one of two fairly liberal tickets

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ford would have won.  Reagan, however, would have defeated Brooke overwhelmingly for the nomination in 1980.

The issue really would be how the 1980 election would have gone, and who the nominees for both parties would be.

[brucejoel99]

Ford would have won.  Reagan, however, would have defeated Brooke overwhelmingly for the nomination in 1980.

The issue really would be how the 1980 election would have gone, and who the nominees for both parties would be.

On the Democratic side, you'd have Kennedy & a possible second run from Carter as well as doubtlessly a wide field of candidates including Jerry Brown (whom I'm guessing would register as too fringe), Glenn, Church, Bentsen, etc. Out of a field that crowded, it'd probably come down to two strong frontrunners, which I'd peg as Carter, the moderate, & Kennedy, the liberal. In this scenario, Carter lost the general 4 years prior, so I'd presume that the Democratic primary electorate would hand the nomination to Teddy, who'd likely pick a moderate, Southern Democrat (though not Carter) as his Veep, so probably somebody like Bentsen, Askew, maybe even Byrd (though that'd be doubtful as, by 1980, he'd accumulated too much power in the Senate to give up), or maybe even somebody else entirely like Glenn.

Reagan would without a doubt win the GOP nomination, & I'd guess that he'd still pick Bush, if only to try to get TX's electoral votes, but, coming off of 12 straight years of Republican presidencies, they'd be at a significant disadvantage in the general.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ford would have won.  Reagan, however, would have defeated Brooke overwhelmingly for the nomination in 1980.

The issue really would be how the 1980 election would have gone, and who the nominees for both parties would be.

On the Democratic side, you'd have Kennedy & a possible second run from Carter as well as doubtlessly a wide field of candidates including Jerry Brown (whom I'm guessing would register as too fringe), Glenn, Church, Bentsen, etc. Out of a field that crowded, it'd probably come down to two strong frontrunners, which I'd peg as Carter, the moderate, & Kennedy, the liberal. In this scenario, Carter lost the general 4 years prior, so I'd presume that the Democratic primary electorate would hand the nomination to Teddy, who'd likely pick a moderate, Southern Democrat (though not Carter) as his Veep, so probably somebody like Bentsen, Askew, maybe even Byrd (though that'd be doubtful as, by 1980, he'd accumulated too much power in the Senate to give up), or maybe even somebody else entirely like Glenn.

Reagan would without a doubt win the GOP nomination, & I'd guess that he'd still pick Bush, if only to try to get TX's electoral votes, but, coming off of 12 straight years of Republican presidencies, they'd be at a significant disadvantage in the general.

Kennedy would not have run had Brooke been VP.

Carter's chances as a once-defeated candidate in 1980 would have depended on how he would be perceived as losing an election he should have won, given the desire of many to punish the GOP for Watergate.