NM Redistricting 2020

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On my previous message, here is my attempt at a map of NM that tries to follow physical geography, using the mountains as the main divider (and of course with a district centered exclusively on Albuquerque



It is not really a good map in terms of political geography, with a 3 way cut of Sandoval and unnecessary cuts in Rio Arriba and Bernalillo; but I tried to go along the exact middle of the mountains (probably missed them but whatever)

In terms of politics a map like this would be a big Democratic dummymander:

NM-01: Clinton+4, D+2
NM-02: Clinton+5, D+2
NM-03: Clinton+14, D+6

High risk, high reward. 10 years from now, that could be a reasonable 2-1 R map if Rs improve with hispanics even further.

It's more high reward than high risk. If Rs are improving with Hispanics that much, then you'd be losing a majority of CDs to Rs anyway.

[YE]

Ewwww. Dividing NM W to E is hideous and I’m a little surprised the state legislature is willing to do it.

Looking at a satellite and geography map of NM, wouldn't an East to West split be more "natural" than North-South?

They probably aren't super big mountains, but there is a mountain range that does divide NM E to W

A lot more people live on the west side than the east though and your map is kinda proof of that.

[Sol]

Here's a pass at a fair map of NM, following CoIs:
-The 1st is the Native communities, Outer Albuquerque, and most of the Nuevomexicano community
-The 2nd is Southern and Eastern NM, plus the remainder of the Nuevomexicano community
-The 3rd is most of Metro Albuquerque

link

[SevenEleven]

Here's a pass at a fair map of NM, following CoIs:
-The 1st is the Native communities, Outer Albuquerque, and most of the Nuevomexicano community
-The 2nd is Southern and Eastern NM, plus the remainder of the Nuevomexicano community
-The 3rd is most of Metro Albuquerque

link

2010 pop and a donut district?

[Sol]

Here's a pass at a fair map of NM, following CoIs:
-The 1st is the Native communities, Outer Albuquerque, and most of the Nuevomexicano community
-The 2nd is Southern and Eastern NM, plus the remainder of the Nuevomexicano community
-The 3rd is most of Metro Albuquerque

link

2010 pop and a donut district?

Ah f***, I'll update

A donut district makes sense here though.

[Sol]

Ok, basically no change--the 1st takes more of South Valley and Union County is entirely in the 2nd.

link

[Nyvin]

This is what I came up with,  pretty sure cracking Albuquerque is needed for any effective D gerrymander.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/97640edb-cf4a-4b92-b22a-69850a14f915

1st is 22% Native American,  Clinton won all three districts with around 48% of the vote, in both 2018 races (Gov, Senate) the D's got over 53% in all three.

2012/2016 PVI:
1: D+5.09
2: D+1.72
3: D+3.54

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is a 3-0 Dem NM map based on the 2018 Gov results.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/126c3f57-6b59-422c-a5c2-09f038718a98

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1359141880303390723

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1359141880303390723

It's going to happen again isn't it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will/would the Governor veto provided it passes both chambers?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1359141880303390723

It's going to happen again isn't it

I strongly support this, but I wish they would have the sense to extract a deal with say UT  (ideally try to get a commission in TX or GA, but it's going to take way more than just NM to negotiate that- maybe NY, MA and MD?). 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Unacceptable. Sinema will not abolish filibuster in time for HR1 so we have no choice but to gerrymander. Hopefully Grisham vetoes this bill

[Zaybay]

NM is about to adopt a redistricting commission:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/544315-new-mexico-approves-independent-redistricting-panel

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Will MLG veto?

[lfromnj]

Seems like its an advisory commission similar to Utah?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Will MLG veto?

If she doesn’t, then she’s an idiot

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will MLG veto?

If she doesn’t, then she’s an idiot

Agreed.

[GALeftist]

I hope MLG vetoes too but this seems toothless even if she doesn't since the legislature can apparently change the maps if they so choose.

[Torie]

This is one state with a fair map, where the populations of each CD are miraculously close to population parity based on census circa 2015 estimates, so all I did was clean up the lines to mitigate county chops. The end. This map has with 5 or less people, exactly equal populations.

[Nyvin]

Couldn't help myself I guess.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/61529242-aedc-4ff0-b0cc-c1e21c377067

2020 Results:

NM-1   
56.72%   41.03%
   
NM-2   
52.32%   45.26%
   
NM-3   
53.60%   44.46%

[Skill and Chance]

Couldn't help myself I guess.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/61529242-aedc-4ff0-b0cc-c1e21c377067

2020 Results:

NM-1   
56.72%   41.03%
   
NM-2   
52.32%   45.26%
   
NM-3   
53.60%   44.46%

Diluting NM-02 has really high dummymander potential.  The rural SE areas are screaming right as are many of the rural northern areas.  They should pull NM-02 up into the rural NE areas east of Taos and give NM-03 some more of Albuquerque. 

[CookieDamage]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Couldn't help myself I guess.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/61529242-aedc-4ff0-b0cc-c1e21c377067

2020 Results:

NM-1
56.72% 41.03%
 
NM-2
52.32% 45.26%
 
NM-3
53.60% 44.46%

Diluting NM-02 has really high dummymander potential.  The rural SE areas are screaming right as are many of the rural northern areas.  They should pull NM-02 up into the rural NE areas east of Taos and give NM-03 some more of Albuquerque.  

I would argue to the contrary. Santa Fe remains a strong anti-GOP bulwark, ensuring that a seat under those boundaries would lean Dem in a neutral year. That is, unless the rural areas get R-voting enough for your argument to be valid, but in that case, Dems probably aren't winning an NM seat outside Albuquerque to begin with...
Worth noting Dems won an open NM-03 by 17 points in 2020. Clearly the seat could be made more Rep without endangering the seat.
More broadly, all 3 seats should be strong lean Dem at worst in even a lean R year if Nyvin's map is adopted, for at least the majority of the decade (which is what counts). If NM-03 flips in 2030, the map would still be worth it given the all-Democratic delegation it returned outweighs the relative net loss in one or at most two election cycles...
EDIT: d'oh, I mistook the district you were speaking of. Grave apologies. No worries though, the latter argument (better to elect 3 Democrats) remains as strong in that case, since NM-02 merely being lean D is still a net gain over a safe 2D-1R.

[Skill and Chance]

Couldn't help myself I guess.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/61529242-aedc-4ff0-b0cc-c1e21c377067

2020 Results:

NM-1
56.72% 41.03%
 
NM-2
52.32% 45.26%
 
NM-3
53.60% 44.46%

Diluting NM-02 has really high dummymander potential.  The rural SE areas are screaming right as are many of the rural northern areas.  They should pull NM-02 up into the rural NE areas east of Taos and give NM-03 some more of Albuquerque.  

I would argue to the contrary. Santa Fe remains a strong anti-GOP bulwark, ensuring that a seat under those boundaries would lean Dem in a neutral year. That is, unless the rural areas get R-voting enough for your argument to be valid, but in that case, Dems probably aren't winning an NM seat outside Albuquerque to begin with...
Worth noting Dems won an open NM-03 by 17 points in 2020. Clearly the seat could be made more Rep without endangering the seat.
More broadly, all 3 seats should be strong lean Dem at worst in even a lean R year if Nyvin's map is adopted, for at least the majority of the decade (which is what counts). If NM-03 flips in 2030, the map would still be worth it given the all-Democratic delegation it returned outweighs the relative net loss in one or at most two election cycles...
EDIT: d'oh, I mistook the district you were speaking of. Grave apologies. No worries though, the latter argument (better to elect 3 Democrats) remains as strong in that case, since NM-02 merely being lean D is still a net gain over a safe 2D-1R.

Well, if the entire goal of the process is finding a way to hold the majority in 2022 and whatever happens later happens (which is a very reasonable argument to make), then they should try to flip NM-02 at whatever cost in 2026/28/30.  Squeeze out every last seat and bet that TX/GA/NC GOP maps will fail by 2030 even if the IL/NM/NY Dem maps do.