NM Redistricting 2020

[Sol]

Is it possible that Dems try to shore up Torres-Small in 2020?

Here's a map that would try to do that (with 2016 electoral data)

[Sol]

Of course a lot depends on how much of his margin Lujan is willing to lose--he'd probably have to take the biggest hit and he's rising in leadership.

[Skill and Chance]

Of course a lot depends on how much of his margin Lujan is willing to lose--he'd probably have to take the biggest hit and he's rising in leadership.

He is running for senate.  However, that seat is arguably not safe for the entire decade in its current configuration.  A lot will depend on what happens next year.  As it stands, I think Torres-Small is more likely to lose than win, at which point they probably just focus on making NM-01 and NM-03 equally Dem leaning.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's my version of a similar map that also tries to be a good government map (keeping Albuquerque together and not snaking around - the split of Bernalillo is just to keep the reservation with the outstate district): https://davesredistricting.org/join/74b9482a-10fa-43cb-87fc-f30f9516db34

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my version of a similar map that also tries to be a good government map (keeping Albuquerque together and not snaking around - the split of Bernalillo is just to keep the reservation with the outstate district): https://davesredistricting.org/join/74b9482a-10fa-43cb-87fc-f30f9516db34

I also had a similar map from a while back, it seems like an easy rotation to do without really disrupting anyone, and it favors the Dems. I was a bit more aggressive Albuquerque's inner suburbs, but the district integrity still stands up.



Basic idea is to put all the reservations, which is why you would need to cut the two northern counties between one and two, into two. San Juan, despite being hard R, is more democratic than Little Texas in the SE, and Natives vote on average more than border hispanics. Even if it isn't like this, I expect something that keeps one and three safe, while pushing two towards the center - similar to our maps.

I guess I'll get a state write-up for NM here tomorrow.

[Bojack Horseman]

I recall a thread on this topic from a few years ago that said three vertical seats would yield a 3 Safe-D seat map.

[Oryxslayer]

I recall a thread on this topic from a few years ago that said three vertical seats would yield a 3 Safe-D seat map.

I mean it would depend upon how one defines safe. Especially with more realistic numbers in the state when compared to Obama's inflated 08 totals and the '16 numbers which have Johnson baked in. It's far more  likely you end up with two competitive-but-D-leaning seats and 1 safe seat, and nobody want to give the GOP the opportunity at a majority of the delegation.

[TML]

For this state, it seems like the main improvement on redistricting would be reducing the number of counties being split between congressional districts. 538's Atlas of Redistricting indicates that the most pro-Democratic gerrymander would involve two solid D-leaning districts alongside one R-leaning swing district, and this map would only split two counties as opposed to the seven county splits in the current map.

[Oryxslayer]

New Mexico

It’s hard to say too much about New Mexico’s congressional redistricting. It’s a small state with a limited pool of congressional districts, and the population distribution of the state has not changed since the modern era. The state’s small size and population mean that communities of interest are both limited and easily identifiable if one desires fair redistricting. That said, redistricting is unlikely to be fair under a democratic trifecta, though potential maps are limited by the low population.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History

New Mexico’s modern lines began when a third seat got reapportioned to the state in 1980. It’s hard to remember now, but New Mexico at one time was a competitive state. New Mexico had a divided senate delegation until Udall replaced Domenici, the state regularly switched governing parties, and presidentially the state only became a true Democratic lock in 2008. It is therefore surprising to find that both legislative chambers have had democratic majorities for nearly all of the last 40 years. It is even more surprising therefore to find out that the last time New Mexico had unified control of redistricting was back in the 1990s. In 2000 it was Johnson. In 2010 it was Martinez. 2020 will be the first time in 30 years that New Mexico will have a democratic governor sign their redistricting bills.

The 1990, 2000, and 2010 New Mexico Congressional Maps, sourced from Wikipedia

Each government since the arrival of the third district took the same redistricting route as their predecessor. One seat would be in the North and generally be Safely Democratic. One district would be in the South and usually elect on Republicans. The final district would be based out of Albuquerque. Its political history matches both the city and the state, flipping from GOP to Democrat in 2008. The district had been voting for democrats presidentialy for a while, it just took the 2008 lockdown to finalize everything. The 1990 democrats used their sole control to make the third more compact and potentially accessible, it had previously stretched out into the rural east. They still however kept the same communities in each seat. Subsequent redistricting battles saw this alignment maintained by the courts. The Democrats 2000 and 2010 redistricting legislation died to the veto, requiring retired judges to step in. Each time, they approved least-change maps and upheld the North-South-Albuquerque trio.

Since 2011

These are court drawn maps, implemented with the intention of changing as little as possible since the 1990 map. Partisanship and incumbent demands were largely ignored. Last decade this led to an acceptance that the Albuquerque seat was lost to the GOP. This decade it led to an understanding that the Southern seat could be competitive in the right circumstances. Those circumstances manifested first in 2008, and then in 2018. We shall see if those circumstances are maintained in 2020, and whether New Mexico allows a Republican into their delegation before redistricting.

2021

New Mexico has both flexibility and inflexibility depending on how the democratic mappers decide to approach their state. The number of democrats presently wasted in districts one and three allow the mappers flexibility to move the second closer to the center. They also have clear options: go for two safe seats and one competitive, or two blue-ish seats and one safe. Both options are also easily done while maintaining counties. One just rotates the districts as close as one wants to E/W rather than N/S, with closer meaning more competitive. A unified trifecta has a lot of leeway in how far they desire to push the second towards the center.

The inflexibility comes from the state’s clear communities of interest, some of which are protected. There is Little Texas in the SE, the Border Hispanics in the SW, the Native reservations in the NW, the Rio Grande Hispanics of the North, Albuquerque, her suburbs, and Santa Fe. The native reservations need to be kept intact and preferably inside the same district. The courts have consistently upheld the geographic alignment of each seat, so serious changes like cutting Albuquerque will raise eyebrows.

Some groups like border Hispanics vote far less than other groups, hampering easy partisan maps. Other Hispanic communities have been in the state since the united states annexed the territory. New Mexico is therefore in a weird position in regards to Hispanics, since theoretically a majority of the state could identify as one depending on how the question is worded. So, no district should go out of its way to decrease Hispanic voter opportunity, even though no district really needs to be Hispanic majority.

What’s Left to Decide

If XTS survives her 2020 race, then democrats will want to be more aggressive and protect her. How aggressive also depends on who replaces Lujan and where that person’s residence is. The state also needs clear and modern partisan data that does not have Gary Johnson mucking up the two party totals.

[538Electoral]

Maybe?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1324749155562971137

Looks like NM D's plan to get the 3rd seat back although I don't think the other incumbents will allow a full on 3-0 map, I think a 2-1-0 map is still possible by making the other 2 seats Biden +15 or so and the last one about even.

[OBD]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1324749155562971137

Looks like NM D's plan to get the 3rd seat back although I don't think the other incumbents will allow a full on 3-0 map, I think a 2-1-0 map is still possible by making the other 2 seats Biden +15 or so and the last one about even.

Good. It's time for Democrats to fight back on redistricting.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1324749155562971137

Looks like NM D's plan to get the 3rd seat back although I don't think the other incumbents will allow a full on 3-0 map, I think a 2-1-0 map is still possible by making the other 2 seats Biden +15 or so and the last one about even.

Thank the Lord. Take notes Virginia.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Brian Egolf's grin in that photograph betrays ruthless intentions, like McConnell's turtle grin. However I have no idea how exactly NM-02 will be redrawn.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1324749155562971137

Looks like NM D's plan to get the 3rd seat back although I don't think the other incumbents will allow a full on 3-0 map, I think a 2-1-0 map is still possible by making the other 2 seats Biden +15 or so and the last one about even.

Thank the Lord. Take notes Virginia.

VA passed a comission

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1324749155562971137

Looks like NM D's plan to get the 3rd seat back although I don't think the other incumbents will allow a full on 3-0 map, I think a 2-1-0 map is still possible by making the other 2 seats Biden +15 or so and the last one about even.

Thank the Lord. Take notes Virginia.

VA passed a comission

That's my point.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Brian Egolf's grin in that photograph betrays ruthless intentions, like McConnell's turtle grin. However I have no idea how exactly NM-02 will be redrawn.

North-South.

You have an Albuquerque seat, a Santa Fe-Roswell Seat, and a Four Corners-Las Cruces seat.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1324749155562971137

Looks like NM D's plan to get the 3rd seat back although I don't think the other incumbents will allow a full on 3-0 map, I think a 2-1-0 map is still possible by making the other 2 seats Biden +15 or so and the last one about even.

Thank the Lord. Take notes Virginia.

VA passed a comission

That's my point.

it was a referendum tho, they'd need another one to overturn it.  that would be hard to get passed

[GALeftist]

New to this, could something like this work?



All districts voted for Clinton, although Johnson's strong performance made them all plurality wins. Albuquerque was like 50% Clinton to 37% Trump, western district was like 46.5% Clinton to 42% Trump, eastern district was like 48% Clinton to 42% Trump. Not sure how it would have gone in 2020 but eyeballing it I suspect Biden won all three again by a larger margin since it seems Johnson voters went for Biden like 2 to 1. If anything, the NYT swing map suggests the western part probably swung Biden the most. All three were obviously solid Dem wins in 2018.

[lfromnj]

Yeah NM is basically for D's 2 Likely/Safe Ds and 1 Lean D.

[YE]

Ewwww. Dividing NM W to E is hideous and I’m a little surprised the state legislature is willing to do it.

[Sol]

Tbh if I'm the New Mexico democrats I'd probably prefer to go 2-0-1 rather than 3-0-0--I think the latter has dummymander potential.

[Former President tack50]

Ewwww. Dividing NM W to E is hideous and I’m a little surprised the state legislature is willing to do it.

Looking at a satellite and geography map of NM, wouldn't an East to West split be more "natural" than North-South?

They probably aren't super big mountains, but there is a mountain range that does divide NM E to W

[Former President tack50]

On my previous message, here is my attempt at a map of NM that tries to follow physical geography, using the mountains as the main divider (and of course with a district centered exclusively on Albuquerque



It is not really a good map in terms of political geography, with a 3 way cut of Sandoval and unnecessary cuts in Rio Arriba and Bernalillo; but I tried to go along the exact middle of the mountains (probably missed them but whatever)

In terms of politics a map like this would be a big Democratic dummymander:

NM-01: Clinton+4, D+2
NM-02: Clinton+5, D+2
NM-03: Clinton+14, D+6

[The Free North]

On my previous message, here is my attempt at a map of NM that tries to follow physical geography, using the mountains as the main divider (and of course with a district centered exclusively on Albuquerque



It is not really a good map in terms of political geography, with a 3 way cut of Sandoval and unnecessary cuts in Rio Arriba and Bernalillo; but I tried to go along the exact middle of the mountains (probably missed them but whatever)

In terms of politics a map like this would be a big Democratic dummymander:

NM-01: Clinton+4, D+2
NM-02: Clinton+5, D+2
NM-03: Clinton+14, D+6

High risk, high reward. 10 years from now, that could be a reasonable 2-1 R map if Rs improve with hispanics even further.