NM Redistricting 2020

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean what's the tl;dr here for what is most likely to happen?

If the GOP doesn't win their initial case after spending so long hunting for a favorable arena, then they deserve to lose a 3 seats tbh. But then it goes to the all-Dem Supreme Court, 4 being MLG appointees. No clear tea leaves so far if they are more aligned with partisanship or the "Free and Fair elections" arguments that have shown up in many State Supreme Courts in the past few years.

What exactly do you mean by the “free and fair elections” crowd?

On an unrelated note, I wonder what Vasquez will do if the map is struck down? Does he run for re-election in a double-digit Trump seat, carpetbag to run against Fernandez or Stansbury, or just retire and set his sights on a statewide office, like governor in 2026?

[Oryxslayer]

I mean what's the tl;dr here for what is most likely to happen?

If the GOP doesn't win their initial case after spending so long hunting for a favorable arena, then they deserve to lose a 3 seats tbh. But then it goes to the all-Dem Supreme Court, 4 being MLG appointees. No clear tea leaves so far if they are more aligned with partisanship or the "Free and Fair elections" arguments that have shown up in many State Supreme Courts in the past few years.

What exactly do you mean by the “free and fair elections” crowd?

On an unrelated note, I wonder what Vasquez will do if the map is struck down? Does he run for re-election in a double-digit Trump seat, carpetbag to run against Fernandez or Stansbury, or just retire and set his sights on a statewide office, like governor in 2026?

Since most state constitutions include language to that effect, plaintiffs have been arguing that it prohibits gerrymandering, often in tandem with evidence that applies to the state's specific situation,  redistricting and election law, and prior legal action. NC at the end of the decade made the argument seem viable. It is a argument that only works in state courts, because of both what Roberts previously said, and cause it flows from State Constitutions. This cycle the argument has appeared in NY, NC, OH, KY, UT, NH, KS, and MD so far IIRC. Not always successfully, or to the desired degree.  And it's something that seemingly is only 100% of the time rejected by the activist partisans - and only then if it's against their team - the rest you don't know how it'll go. See KS saying no despite the liberal majority, and promising hints for plaintiffs in UT.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What exactly is the basis in NM law for the challenge?

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1710345032639693238

OMG lolol the judge shopping by the GOP was all for naught!

Will most likely be appealed but I have a hard time seeing such a blue NMSC overturn the lower court's ruling.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean what's the tl;dr here for what is most likely to happen?

If the GOP doesn't win their initial case after spending so long hunting for a favorable arena, then they deserve to lose a 3 seats tbh. But then it goes to the all-Dem Supreme Court, 4 being MLG appointees. No clear tea leaves so far if they are more aligned with partisanship or the "Free and Fair elections" arguments that have shown up in many State Supreme Courts in the past few years.

NM GOP is so F'ing incompetent

[Stuart98]

Yikes the justification here is bad. Basically arguing that a map where Republicans win zero seats in a state where they consistently get at least 4/9ths of the vote is fine because it was close in the best case scenario for Republicans last year. Even if it helps us, this is an incredibly stupid finding by the judges here, I hope this case is an anomaly against the other redistricting cases up this cycle.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Yikes the justification here is bad. Basically arguing that a map where Republicans win zero seats in a state where they consistently get at least 4/9ths of the vote is fine because it was close in the best case scenario for Republicans last year. Even if it helps us, this is an incredibly stupid finding by the judges here, I hope this case is an anomaly against the other redistricting cases up this cycle.

This is what over-rounding does to a person…

[SilverStar]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1710414619846517077
 

[DrScholl]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

[Roll Roons]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

[DrScholl]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

It's certainly not safely Democratic. Biden won New Mexico by 11%, but this district only by 5% so there is a lot of room for a Republican to win it and hold it, especially with low turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

Probably in theory based on lean relative to the nation or state, but even that is effectively equivalent to the 2020 national results. And I personally don't exactly buy these relative lean metrics in general, cause so many areas are just stagnant thanks to RPV but see their "rating" change wildly based on the nation around them.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

Vasquez won by less than 1%

[ProgressiveModerate]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

It's certainly not safely Democratic. Biden won New Mexico by 11%, but this district only by 5% so there is a lot of room for a Republican to win it and hold it, especially with low turnout.

In statewide elections, it's basically voted for Dems in every recent major election but NM-Gov 2022 which was a relatively poor showing for NM Dems.

Def should be considered D-leaning for now; I think the old NM-02 being much more R-leaning warps people's perspectives.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Honestly, I still think Vasquez needs to look over his shoulder. Distancing himself from MLG is a good idea and Herrell doesn’t impress me much, so I think he should win but I’m worried about 1- What else MLG will do 2-How high Trumps numbers with Hispanics will be

[Spectator]

Honestly, I still think Vasquez needs to look over his shoulder. Distancing himself from MLG is a good idea and Herrell doesn’t impress me much, so I think he should win but I’m worried about 1- What else MLG will do 2-How high Trumps numbers with Hispanics will be

Incumbent hispanic Dems haven’t had really any problem in the border seats in Texas. I think Vasquez’s risk is dramatically overblown. He’s broken from the party in enough of a way on the “correct” issues to distinguish his own brand. And he wears jeans and cowboy boots which fits the optics for his district. Voters dig that sh**t.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

Vasquez won by less than 1%

Against an incumbent who was widely expected to win though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

Vasquez won by less than 1%

Against an incumbent who was widely expected to win though.

He won by less than 1%; it’s not a safe seat.

[Roll Roons]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

Vasquez won by less than 1%

Against an incumbent who was widely expected to win though.

He won by less than 1%; it’s not a safe seat.

It's clearly not a safe Democratic seat, but my original point was rebutting Dr. Scholl's claim that was it was "Republican leaning" when that's also not really an accurate characterization.

[Spectator]

If entrenchment is the qualifier for an egregious gerrymander then it makes sense that the court wouldn't believe it met that threshold. NM-2 is still Republican leaning despite being a Biden district and it will remain to be seen if a Democrat can become entrenched there. The interesting thing is 20 years ago this would have been a Republican map to make NM-1 safe for a Republican while not much endangering Republican control of NM-2.

It even voted for Hillary. How could it possibly be considered Republican-leaning?

Vasquez won by less than 1%

Against an incumbent who was widely expected to win though.

He won by less than 1%; it’s not a safe seat.

It's clearly not a safe Democratic seat, but my original point was rebutting Dr. Scholl's claim that was it was "Republican leaning" when that's also not really an accurate characterization.

It's a wonder the NM Dems didn't just make all 3 districts Biden +11. I wonder if part of it was wave insurance. Even still, it's not hard at all to split them up equally, while still looking similar to the current map.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1726615512690696411?t=FhE4gtcVREcIUD8_o...

Supreme Court hears it today.  The GOP lost in the lower court they tried to handpick, so unless the full-Dem body has already decided to do its own thing,  I don't expect a ruling for the plaintiffs.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1729196013624143990

[Oryxslayer]

And in a very quick turnaround (compared a certain the state to its north...) the State Supreme Court unanimously upheld the map.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1729208759996781029

[CityofSinners]

This is one of the funnier redistricting outcomes. Saved by your own incompetence.