2020 Labour Leadership Election

[EastAnglianLefty]

The main takeaways from this are all fairly obvious, but here are a couple of mildly interesting tidbits for those who like that sort of thing:

1. Just over 400k members voted, a little over 75k affiliates and only 13k registered supporters, so raising the registration fee for the latter seems to have almost killed off that phenomenon.

2. Starmer's figure amongst members was very close to the overall result, he stormed home amongst registered supporters (78%!) and he did slightly less well amongst affiliates (although still above 50%.) Long-Bailey did best amongst members, but bombed amongst registered supporters (only 650 votes total!) and came third to Nandy amongst affiliates. So it's fairly clear there was no reserve army of Corbynites and that Long-Bailey's union endorsements didn't have any significant effect on the votes of rank and file union members.

3. It's not clear there was an organised left bloc down the ballot. Burgon and Butler combined for more or less Long-Bailey's percentage, but when Butler was eliminated her support went primarily to Rayner, with Allin-Khan second and Burgon only just getting more transfers than Murray.

4. Conversely, there does seem to have been more of a right bloc visible in the deputy leadership election, judging by the strong transfers from Murray to Allin-Khan.

[Blair]

And in an almost as important result the corbynsceptics have won all three NEC seats in the by-election.

Starter is close to or has a majority on the NEC; with that he has the power to really change labour in the boring but much needed way.

And having looked the Left lost both of these because they didn’t run a controlled slate; there were about 8 candidates for the 2 CLP seats (of which 25% got suspended mid campaign for well you can guess) and two for the BAME section.

This is not a surprise to those observing the left in the party over the last few months but still speaks volumes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hot Take: Lavery would have polled better than RLB. He would still have lost, and by miles. But with a vote share in the lower thirties.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Though it might have made for a more divisive contest, because whereas Starmer has no reason not to offer Long-Bailey a Shad Cab post, the only thing Lavery is likely to be offered is the post of leader's special envoy to Antarctica.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though it might have made for a more divisive contest, because whereas Starmer has no reason not to offer Long-Bailey a Shad Cab post, the only thing Lavery is likely to be offered is the post of leader's special envoy to Antarctica.

Hey, he might take it if he's told he can claim expenses!

[CumbrianLefty]

And in an almost as important result the corbynsceptics have won all three NEC seats in the by-election.

Due to a split in the "left" vote, with the "crank" tendency running its own slate as opposed to the official Momentum-approved one. Interesting to see if that continues going forward.

[cp]

The main takeaways from this are all fairly obvious, but here are a couple of mildly interesting tidbits for those who like that sort of thing:

1. Just over 400k members voted, a little over 75k affiliates and only 13k registered supporters, so raising the registration fee for the latter seems to have almost killed off that phenomenon.

2. Starmer's figure amongst members was very close to the overall result, he stormed home amongst registered supporters (78%!) and he did slightly less well amongst affiliates (although still above 50%.) Long-Bailey did best amongst members, but bombed amongst registered supporters (only 650 votes total!) and came third to Nandy amongst affiliates. So it's fairly clear there was no reserve army of Corbynites and that Long-Bailey's union endorsements didn't have any significant effect on the votes of rank and file union members.

3. It's not clear there was an organised left bloc down the ballot. Burgon and Butler combined for more or less Long-Bailey's percentage, but when Butler was eliminated her support went primarily to Rayner, with Allin-Khan second and Burgon only just getting more transfers than Murray.

4. Conversely, there does seem to have been more of a right bloc visible in the deputy leadership election, judging by the strong transfers from Murray to Allin-Khan.

Good observations. In this respect, Starmer's open disdain for factionalism is probably a good reflection of the party at large. Right and left, there's not nearly the appetite for internecine struggles as there was in 2015-2017. That said, one could argue this is because the Corbynite insurrectionary policies of that era - acceding to departure from the EU, full scale repudiation of austerity/neoliberalism, etc. - have become accepted wisdom across the party and even in the mainstream (!).

[CumbrianLefty]

The main takeaways from this are all fairly obvious, but here are a couple of mildly interesting tidbits for those who like that sort of thing:

1. Just over 400k members voted, a little over 75k affiliates and only 13k registered supporters, so raising the registration fee for the latter seems to have almost killed off that phenomenon.

2. Starmer's figure amongst members was very close to the overall result, he stormed home amongst registered supporters (78%!) and he did slightly less well amongst affiliates (although still above 50%.) Long-Bailey did best amongst members, but bombed amongst registered supporters (only 650 votes total!) and came third to Nandy amongst affiliates. So it's fairly clear there was no reserve army of Corbynites and that Long-Bailey's union endorsements didn't have any significant effect on the votes of rank and file union members.

3. It's not clear there was an organised left bloc down the ballot. Burgon and Butler combined for more or less Long-Bailey's percentage, but when Butler was eliminated her support went primarily to Rayner, with Allin-Khan second and Burgon only just getting more transfers than Murray.

4. Conversely, there does seem to have been more of a right bloc visible in the deputy leadership election, judging by the strong transfers from Murray to Allin-Khan.

Good observations. In this respect, Starmer's open disdain for factionalism is probably a good reflection of the party at large. Right and left, there's not nearly the appetite for internecine struggles as there was in 2015-2017. That said, one could argue this is because the Corbynite insurrectionary policies of that era - acceding to departure from the EU, full scale repudiation of austerity/neoliberalism, etc. - have become accepted wisdom across the party and even in the mainstream (!).

Though that's not true of everybody of course - eg McTernan's recent piece

[cp]

The main takeaways from this are all fairly obvious, but here are a couple of mildly interesting tidbits for those who like that sort of thing:

1. Just over 400k members voted, a little over 75k affiliates and only 13k registered supporters, so raising the registration fee for the latter seems to have almost killed off that phenomenon.

2. Starmer's figure amongst members was very close to the overall result, he stormed home amongst registered supporters (78%!) and he did slightly less well amongst affiliates (although still above 50%.) Long-Bailey did best amongst members, but bombed amongst registered supporters (only 650 votes total!) and came third to Nandy amongst affiliates. So it's fairly clear there was no reserve army of Corbynites and that Long-Bailey's union endorsements didn't have any significant effect on the votes of rank and file union members.

3. It's not clear there was an organised left bloc down the ballot. Burgon and Butler combined for more or less Long-Bailey's percentage, but when Butler was eliminated her support went primarily to Rayner, with Allin-Khan second and Burgon only just getting more transfers than Murray.

4. Conversely, there does seem to have been more of a right bloc visible in the deputy leadership election, judging by the strong transfers from Murray to Allin-Khan.

Good observations. In this respect, Starmer's open disdain for factionalism is probably a good reflection of the party at large. Right and left, there's not nearly the appetite for internecine struggles as there was in 2015-2017. That said, one could argue this is because the Corbynite insurrectionary policies of that era - acceding to departure from the EU, full scale repudiation of austerity/neoliberalism, etc. - have become accepted wisdom across the party and even in the mainstream (!).

Though that's not true of everybody of course - eg McTernan's recent piece

McTernan's attitude is, I think, the exception not the rule.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, one certainly hopes so

My take on RLB's undoubtedly slightly disappointing result - she blew whatever chance she had when she gave Corbyn "10 out of 10". Sometimes, things really are that simple.

[Intell]

Well, one certainly hopes so

My take on RLB's undoubtedly slightly disappointing result - she blew whatever chance she had when she gave Corbyn "10 out of 10". Sometimes, things really are that simple.

That basically made me immediately rule out supporting her. Yea, I guess that would have been a big factor.

[Blair]

A sign of things to come.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1246426974203121664

[cp]

A sign of things to come.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1246426974203121664

Uncorroborated rumours and rapidly deleted tweets?

[CumbrianLefty]

What did it say?

[Blair]

That someone in Labour HQ had quit.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thomas Gardiner, presumably? Because that has also been reported elsewhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean, he's going no matter. Just a question of the manner of the departure.

[CumbrianLefty]

Now widely expected that Dodds (not Reeves) will be Starmer's pick as SC. I did notice that AD's odds were steadily drawing in yesterday, maybe there was a well-informed steer from somewhere?

[MABA 2020]

Now widely expected that Dodds (not Reeves) will be Starmer's pick as SC. I did notice that AD's odds were steadily drawing in yesterday, maybe there was a well-informed steer from somewhere?

Dodds is the better choice, any idea about shadow home or foreign secretary?

[CumbrianLefty]

Jo Stevens has been mentioned for a big job, she was briefly in the SC under Corbyn.

Overall however, if Starmer is generally going for younger "moderates" with less factional baggage rather than the still media hyped "old lags" of the pre-2015 period - this is IMO a thoroughly good development and gives some hope for the future.

[Blair]

Jo Stevens has been mentioned for a big job, she was briefly in the SC under Corbyn.

Overall however, if Starmer is generally going for younger "moderates" with less factional baggage rather than the still media hyped "old lags" of the pre-2015 period - this is IMO a thoroughly good development and gives some hope for the future.

This 100%

There's a tendency, largely put forward in my experience by people who are forgetting 2010-2015 or people who follow politics closely but not Labour's politics that this would all be fixed if Cooper, Benn, Miliband, Lammy and Phillips were all given top jobs.

The problem of course with doing that is you'd immediately have a shadow cabinet with not only rather large egos and sharp elbows in some cases, but years & years of public positions along with large profiles and distractions.

I say this as someone who would welcome one or two of them being given a big job to provide some experience; but yes with such a long parliament I think the four basic aims should be.

1.) People in Covid briefs who can handle them from today.

2.) A variety in region, age & so forth.

3.) Loyalists who are going to work & not brief.

4.) A competent band of junior ministers.

It might be because of the day job but I'll be interested in how the junior ministerial positions are padded out; a rather lukewarm SOS can be saved by a good ministerial team

[CumbrianLefty]

Rayner won as well (no surprise) on the third round.

Excellent second place for Allin-Khan, who won over quite a few during the campaign.

[brucejoel99]

A new dawn has broken.

[JGibson]

With Starmer's election, the Labour Leader role will stay in Arsenal hands.

[Frodo]

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1246376056807972864

Good to see the Labour Party can finally begin to put itself into position to win the 2024 election on May 2.