UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[CumbrianLefty]

What people forget is that Michael Howard was supposed to be the dark horse against Ken Clarke with Hague as his deputy but a combination of that Paxman interview and an anti-semitic dogwhistle from the dreaded Strictly woman sunk him.

Howard, when he eventually got the chance, was actually quite effective against Blair. Perhaps pre Iraq crisp jeans and guitar case Blair would have been more of a match, but had Howard made it, 2001 would have been quite different.

I don't think there's much of a "perhaps" about it tbh. Because of Blair's somewhat ghoulish presence in our time, and the utterly cult like nature (*far* more so than *most* "Corbynistas" IMO) of much of his remaining support, people too easily forget what an incredible politician he was in his prime.

Howard would maybe make a difference at the margins in 2001, but still a three figure Labour win easily. Indeed it is possible his seeming a tad more "credible" than Hague might even have driven turnout up a bit?

(which would have been virtually certain to have been to the Tories disbenefit in that election)

[Don Vito Corleone]

Yes, I agree with the last post. Blair in his heydey was bigger than Jesus. I mean, just look at this. Granted, it is an internal poll (though I must say I don't know too much about the dynamics of internal polling accuracy in Britain), but it's worth something. If that's not enough, consider that Labour consistently polled near 50% during that 97-01 Parliament.

[DaWN]

Yes, I agree with the last post. Blair in his heydey was bigger than Jesus. I mean, just look at this. Granted, it is an internal poll (though I must say I don't know too much about the dynamics of internal polling accuracy in Britain), but it's worth something. If that's not enough, consider that Labour consistently polled near 50% during that 97-01 Parliament.

That was in the wake of his Diana response which was as close to an American style 'rally-around-the-flag' moment as we've ever come. He was freakishly popular in his early years but that was definitely an outlier.

[CumbrianLefty]

But still not that much of an outlier come 2001. The most shocking thing about the Tories briefly going into a poll lead after the 2000 fuel protests was how unexpected it was - and Blair turned around that blip with his then customary skill. It maybe spooked NL into being more cautious during that election campaign than they might otherwise have been, though.

[Blair]

Only 8 months after one of the most impressive wins for a generation... it's not as if the Tories weren't
warned that Bojo is a lazy & laregly useless leader.

What's more remarkable is that there's a rather senior tory going on record to the Observer!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/aug/29/boris-johnson-faces-tory-wrath-as-party-slumps-in-shock-poll

[Blair]

The three major challenges that are going to come over the next 3 months are....

1.) Do the Government extend or revise the furlough to save parts of the economy?

2.) Do the Government safely handle the return for schools?

3.) Will the Prime Minister get a cabinet who knows how to handle a brief?

If the answer to all three is no & we have the vicious winter predicted (floods, flu, spike & no-deal) we're heading into somewhere a lot worse than a tied poll.

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1299781777163255814

[brucejoel99]

Don't worry, they'll just whip up some nationalism over Brexit or go on the attack against unpatriotic people who hate sandwiches or something & their polling will go right back up again

[Alcibiades]

The three major challenges that are going to come over the next 3 months are....

1.) Do the Government extend or revise the furlough to save parts of the economy?

2.) Do the Government safely handle the return for schools?

3.) Will the Prime Minister get a cabinet who knows how to handle a brief?

If the answer to all three is no & we have the vicious winter predicted (floods, flu, spike & no-deal) we're heading into somewhere a lot worse than a tied poll.

1. They likely do, though do not be surprised if its after a U-turn.
2. For the most part yes, but there may be some controversy and chaos in areas hit by local lockdowns.
3. No; loyalty will continued to be valued above competence.

Brexit has understandably taken a back seat in recent months, but I think a lot of people could be in for a nasty shock come January. In fact, I’ll be bold and say Brexit is going to be a bigger disaster over the winter for the government than coronavirus.

I very much doubt that the Tories will get more votes than Labour at the next election. Whether Labour get a majority or even the most seats is another question entirely.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The three major challenges that are going to come over the next 3 months are....

1.) Do the Government extend or revise the furlough to save parts of the economy?

2.) Do the Government safely handle the return for schools?

3.) Will the Prime Minister get a cabinet who knows how to handle a brief?

If the answer to all three is no & we have the vicious winter predicted (floods, flu, spike & no-deal) we're heading into somewhere a lot worse than a tied poll.

Of course, we should keep in mind how far ahead Labour was after the 'Omnishambles' budget of 2012. I think Labour supporters should still be keeping low expectations for this parliament: if you look at how each party is favoured on an issue by issue basis inc. a huge lead on the economy thanks to Sunak (and the attendant media propaganda despite his deliberate devastation of the cultural industry), I don't think it's realistic to say that the Conservatives are in danger of losing their majority just yet. There's a bigger shoe which needs to drop first.

That is to say, the median voter can't imagine Labour as being a competent party of government yet.

[Cassius]

I suppose it’s symbolically significant, but it is only a margin of error movement, with both parties very much in the same place as they’ve been since about May. Given that Tory governments always fall behind Labour at about this time and yet often come back to win the next GE (1983, 1987, 1992, 2015), I wouldn’t get too worked up about this poll.

In other news, the UCU, after having had many months in which to raise their concerns, have decided that the end of August is an appropriate time to come out against students returning to universities from... the end of September (with most students having already been informed about the arrangements for the coming term). To which I can only say, good luck to them, and I hope they have thought very carefully about the implications of students not being allowed to go back for another indefinite period.

[TheTide]

Don't worry, they'll just whip up some nationalism over Brexit or go on the attack against unpatriotic people who hate sandwiches or something & their polling will go right back up again

Or they'll do what they've always done and claim that Labour represent an existential threat to our back pockets.

[Zinneke]

Is the Tory demographic crisis still a theme in the party or are they confident that they haven't lost some of the younger generations? I remember when people were giving them their last rites under Cameron.

[DaWN]

Is the Tory demographic crisis still a theme in the party or are they confident that they haven't lost some of the younger generations? I remember when people were giving them their last rites under Cameron.

The Conservative Party as a brand is poison to the vast majority of people under the age of around thirty five, which is something that intensifies as you go further down the age groups. My group (18-25) gave them just 21% of the vote in an election where they were winning very comfortably nationally. Banking that these age groups will 'get more conservative as they get older' as we always hear will be exceptionally foolish for the party, and it is only going to be amplified when the current generation of retirees, who vote Tory by pretty North Korean margins, begin to die off in large numbers. In 10-15 years they will be replaced at the upper end of the age ladder by my parents' generation which is far less Tory.

Having said that, this is very much a long term problem and probably irrelevant until we enter the 2030s at the earliest - additionally, we have no idea how the parties are going to evolve, who will be in government throughout the political maturing of the next generation of voters, etc. etc. The Tories may have struggles in the future, but it is unlikely to do anything as drastic as lock them out of government.

(Especially as they will always have their greatest electoral asset, the Labour party, to count on)

[CumbrianLefty]

The three major challenges that are going to come over the next 3 months are....

1.) Do the Government extend or revise the furlough to save parts of the economy?

2.) Do the Government safely handle the return for schools?

3.) Will the Prime Minister get a cabinet who knows how to handle a brief?

If the answer to all three is no & we have the vicious winter predicted (floods, flu, spike & no-deal) we're heading into somewhere a lot worse than a tied poll.

Of course, we should keep in mind how far ahead Labour was after the 'Omnishambles' budget of 2012. I think Labour supporters should still be keeping low expectations for this parliament: if you look at how each party is favoured on an issue by issue basis inc. a huge lead on the economy thanks to Sunak (and the attendant media propaganda despite his deliberate devastation of the cultural industry)

And that poll lead came nearly 2 years into the parliament, as opposed to less than nine months now.

It is possible to overdo the pessimism. Sunak's numbers may already be slipping a bit, and what state they will be in after the coming economic battering (very possibly augmented by a full-fat "final" Brexit) is another matter entirely. There will be plenty of opportunities for Labour to make their case in the coming few years, and Starmer at least doesn't turn many voters off instantly in the way Corbyn (for all his other virtues) did. And any government that has been in power for as long as the Tories will have been by 2024 is going to have a sizeable "fatigue" factor attatched.

Plus, of course, the mounting evidence that they aren't actually terribly good at governing. Of course they are going to use eternal culture war on literally everything to try to counteract that, but the evidence from over the pond is that this may deliver diminishing returns over time.

Its all to play for

[Zinneke]

Saw this on reddit and was curious as to what you guys think



https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/ijayhq/a_map_the_different_catagories_of_voter_used_by/

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html

[EastAnglianLefty]

Most of it is incoherent, the rest is gibberish. No, rural Aberdeenshire is not 'progressive'.

[Alcibiades]

Saw this on reddit and was curious as to what you guys think



https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/ijayhq/a_map_the_different_catagories_of_voter_used_by/

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html

Apparently the classifications are calculated from regression models which estimate a score for each constituency on social, economic and globalist/nationalist axes, then classify them based on these. Some are a bit strange, but by and large accurate to the extent that such an exercise can ever be. I think the Tory-held Scottish seats being classified as “progressive” highlights how left to the rest of the UK Scotland is. (Btw the progressive category is not in the US sense of the word but rather centre-left, New Labour/Lib Dem-ish.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the classifications are calculated from regression models which estimate a score for each constituency on social, economic and globalist/nationalist axes, then classify them based on these. Some are a bit strange, but by and large accurate to the extent that such an exercise can ever be. I think the Tory-held Scottish seats being classified as “progressive” highlights how left to the rest of the UK Scotland is. (Btw the progressive category is not in the US sense of the word but rather centre-left, New Labour/Lib Dem-ish.)

Well that is maybe one thing some of us are a bit sceptical about tbh.

(especially given that social attitudes surveys regularly show strikingly *little* difference)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Saw this on reddit and was curious as to what you guys think



https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/ijayhq/a_map_the_different_catagories_of_voter_used_by/

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html

Apparently the classifications are calculated from regression models which estimate a score for each constituency on social, economic and globalist/nationalist axes, then classify them based on these. Some are a bit strange, but by and large accurate to the extent that such an exercise can ever be. I think the Tory-held Scottish seats being classified as “progressive” highlights how left to the rest of the UK Scotland is. (Btw the progressive category is not in the US sense of the word but rather centre-left, New Labour/Lib Dem-ish.)

Yeah, that's still gibberish. There is no similarity between the politics of Perth & North Perthshire, Cambridge and Birmingham Ladywood and none of them have 'New Labour' politics. The main thing this map shows is that the underlying model is a bad one.

[Alcibiades]

Saw this on reddit and was curious as to what you guys think



https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/ijayhq/a_map_the_different_catagories_of_voter_used_by/

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol3d_main.html

Apparently the classifications are calculated from regression models which estimate a score for each constituency on social, economic and globalist/nationalist axes, then classify them based on these. Some are a bit strange, but by and large accurate to the extent that such an exercise can ever be. I think the Tory-held Scottish seats being classified as “progressive” highlights how left to the rest of the UK Scotland is. (Btw the progressive category is not in the US sense of the word but rather centre-left, New Labour/Lib Dem-ish.)

Yeah, that's still gibberish. There is no similarity between the politics of Perth & North Perthshire, Cambridge and Birmingham Ladywood and none of them have 'New Labour' politics. The main thing this map shows is that the underlying model is a bad one.

Maybe ‘New Labour’ was the wrong term. I meant economically centre-left, pro-Europe. Scotland is difficult to compare as its politics have become so focussed on independence lines in recent years.

I actually would argue that those three seats are fairly similar. They vote for left-leaning parties and are strongly pro-Remain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And I can tell you that there are few constituencies in the entire United Kingdom that have less in common than Birmingham Ladywood and Perth & North Perthshire. Bad data is bad data is bad data.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I actually would argue that those three seats are fairly similar. They vote for left-leaning parties and are strongly pro-Remain.

I question whether the second statement is actually true (the Tories matched their UK national share in Perthshire 2017 and had a comfortable plurality in local elections; the SNP representatives for the area have consistently been on the right of the party), but even aside from that why on earth would you argue that Cambridge and Birmingham Ladywood are at all similar? I just genuinely can't understand how you could come to that conclusion at all.

Although actually, I've found a new worst bit of that map: Tottenham is classed as 'progressive' and Hornsey & Wood Green as 'strong left'. Lolololol.

[Alcibiades]

I actually would argue that those three seats are fairly similar. They vote for left-leaning parties and are strongly pro-Remain.

I question whether the second statement is actually true (the Tories matched their UK national share in Perthshire 2017 and had a comfortable plurality in local elections; the SNP representatives for the area have consistently been on the right of the party), but even aside from that why on earth would you argue that Cambridge and Birmingham Ladywood are at all similar? I just genuinely can't understand how you could come to that conclusion at all.

Although actually, I've found a new worst bit of that map: Tottenham is classed as 'progressive' and Hornsey & Wood Green as 'strong left'. Lolololol.

Cambridge and Ladywood are demographically very different, but show strong similarities in their voting record in both the Commons and the EU referendum.

[Former President tack50]

Re: Perth & North Perthshire, as always it is worth noting that Scottish secessionism screws up any political comparisons between them and the rest of the UK.

In fairness, at this point including Scotland in any cross-UK political comparisons makes only slightly more sense than including Northern Ireland; and the map should have really been limited to England+Wales