UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is sex in the office a sackable offence in the UK?

How did George Costanza get elected to the UK Parliament?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Is sex in the office a sackable offence in the UK?

How did George Costanza get elected to the UK Parliament?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-mortgages-parents-children-b2113882.html?


Boris Johnson is trying to speed-run getting 0% of the youth vote, seriously a 50 year mortage what the actual hell is that.

[TheTide]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-mortgages-parents-children-b2113882.html?


Boris Johnson is trying to speed-run getting 0% of the youth vote, seriously a 50 year mortage what the actual hell is that.

Every aspect, side and proposal of the housing 'debate' is stupid.

[YL]

It was reported the MP named Peter Bottomley said he hoped pincher would return to Government on a WhatsApp group.

I won’t tell you the name of his wife- that would ruin the joke.

Well, she actually rose higher politically than he has, but is long retired.  She is also remembered for her name being an anagram of "I'M AN EVIL TORY BIGOT", which was perhaps a little harsh; I always thought she was fairly inoffensive by Tory standards.

Speaking of her, her constituency was South West Surrey, now held by one Jeremy Hunt: archetypal stockbroker belt around places like Godalming and Haslemere.  YouGov have done another of their MRPs covering a selection of constituencies, this time seats currently held by the Tories but with the Lib Dems on over 20% in 2019: article here.  Perhaps the most striking of the individual seat projections (though, like all individual seat projections, deserving of something of a pinch of salt) is that Hunt would lose that seat to the Lib Dems.  It's not even shown as particularly close.

[Pericles]

Hunt would then be another example of the same effect seen in Australia, where the most moderate MPs (or at least the 'best fits' for the educated voters leaving the base) are disproportionately taken out by the wave. That election should be even more reason for them not to fool around and hesitate about knifing the leader.

[Torrain]

Speaking of her, her constituency was South West Surrey, now held by one Jeremy Hunt: archetypal stockbroker belt around places like Godalming and Haslemere.  YouGov have done another of their MRPs covering a selection of constituencies, this time seats currently held by the Tories but with the Lib Dems on over 20% in 2019: article here.  Perhaps the most striking of the individual seat projections (though, like all individual seat projections, deserving of something of a pinch of salt) is that Hunt would lose that seat to the Lib Dems.  It's not even shown as particularly close.

That analysis throws out some wild hypotheticals. Henley, the safe Tory seat held by Johnson in the 2000s, and Helseltine before him is one of those shown to be with a victory margin of just 2%. That’s a seat that’s been comfortably Tory since creation, with the exception of a single term in 1906 - when it was swept up in the Liberal Party landslide.

I know it’s become cliche to say that the Tories will struggle to contain both the post-industrial heavily Leave-voting seats in the North, and remain-friendly seats with high numbers of graduates in the South (Red and Blue Wall respectively). But it’s interesting to see signs they’re facing significant vulnerabilities on both fronts - suggesting one of two things: either their attempt to placate both groups simultaneously is failing, or voters in the South have shifted tactically to the Lib Dems as part of an anti-Tory strategy.

I’d add that, the worst Tory election nights are ones where the voters don’t have a grudge against either the Lib Dems or Labour, and so tactical voting is widespread enough to make a impact. It’s what made 1997 go from bad to worse for the Conservatives - typified by the fact that the Lib Dems more than doubled their seat total, on a vote share smaller than they received in 1992.

[Torrain]

New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.

[Cassius]

what do we think of Boris getting a blowie during work hours by his then mistress now wife and offering her a job as chief of staff at the FCO during that period? In any other country it would have been the talk of the town.

Coupled with the strikes - clearly we have become France!

[CumbrianLefty]

New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.

Lots of people think the Tories would hold a Tamworth byelection even now (and yes, I am inclined to agree with that myself) and that might make it a bit more likely he is pushed out over this.

[Blair]

He is seeking ‘medical help’ so I assume he’ll largely disappear- the danger point for quitting tends to be in the days after, but we have the looming investigation.

I expect he will stand down at the next election.

[Torrain]

New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.

Lots of people think the Tories would hold a Tamworth byelection even now (and yes, I am inclined to agree with that myself) and that might make it a bit more likely he is pushed out over this.

Aye - it would definitely be a heavy lift for Labour if the last couple of cycles are anything to go by. Ironically, I could see some staff in no.10 briefing a by-election as a chance for the government to “reset” the narrative (especially if they win) - even though the circumstances of such an election would be pretty damning in themselves.

[Oryxslayer]

So YouGov did a MRP poll/estimation of Tory seats the Lib-Dems could target. Obviously I think the biggest thing that needs to be stated is that what defines a Lib-Dem target is only really minimally decided by the last election results, its more do to their base floor, campaign effort, and candidates they recruit. What I find most interesting is the southeastern swings, mainly around Surrey. In many of these seats the Lib-Dems have a local base, but never could break on through. Now however it looks like the Dominos may be falling fast, which means similar seats to the west and north of London not polled might also be battlegrounds.

[Blair]

The interesting thing about Hunt's seat is that he's broadly got the same share of the vote since 2010- around the high 50s.

It just seems in 2019 the opposition vote went to the Liberal democrats & he dropped down to 53%- so not exactly surprising but still will be ringing alarm bells.

The Tories haven't really faced an election since 1997 where both Labour & the Liberal Democrats stand a good chance of taking seats off them- it would make depriving them of a majority a lot easier...

[kyc0705]

As a particularly extreme case of what divided opposition will do for you, Hunt's vote share in 2015 was 59.6%, only ~six points higher than it was in 2019, but he had a 50-point majority because none of his opponents got more than 10% of the vote.

[YL]

He is seeking ‘medical help’ so I assume he’ll largely disappear- the danger point for quitting tends to be in the days after, but we have the looming investigation.

I expect he will stand down at the next election.

As I understand things, the investigation could produce a suspension as it did for Rob Roberts.  And the loophole in the Recall of MPs Act which meant no Delyn by-election has been closed, so there would then be a recall petition if the suspension is long enough.  Unless he quits in the next day or so, I think that's the most likely way he's forced out before the next election.

[CumbrianLefty]

More and more stuff coming out about Pincher, decent chance he will be gone as an MP within days.

[Blair]

Can I get a super injunction against the baseless super injunction rumours coming from both BackBoris and FBPE Twitter?

I seriously worry for these people.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/03/diane-abbott-claims-boris-johnson-rumoured-like-assaulting-women/

I'm not sure about my understanding of British Libel law, but wouldn't this be defamatory ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends entirely on whether he's willing to risk suing over it: the risks of actually doing so are greater than always realised. Because while the burden of proof is on the respondent rather than the claimant over the matter of truth,* it is also necessary for it to be shown that the claimant's reputation has been damaged by the alleged defamation. There is also the small matter that during the course of a libel case, all sorts of information might well come to light that could be reputationally damaging on their own: this is one reason why politicians are rather less likely to follow through with a libel threat than you might think.

_{*Not that this is actually an impossible hurdle anyway if something is true.}

[MaxQue]

Also, high odds of a Streisand effect.

[TheTide]

It would be so funny if Chris Pincher is the downfall of Boris Johnson. Which is now more possible given the latest revelation.

[Silent Hunter]

Depends entirely on whether he's willing to risk suing over it: the risks of actually doing so are greater than always realised. Because while the burden of proof is on the respondent rather than the claimant over the matter of truth,* it is also necessary for it to be shown that the claimant's reputation has been damaged by the alleged defamation. There is also the small matter that during the course of a libel case, all sorts of information might well come to light that could be reputationally damaging on their own: this is one reason why politicians are rather less likely to follow through with a libel threat than you might think.

_{*Not that this is actually an impossible hurdle anyway if something is true.}

Also, a PM suing anyone for speaking out against him looks like the state suppressing free speech.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be so funny if Chris Pincher is the downfall of Boris Johnson. Which is now more possible given the latest revelation.

We need to accept that if Americans are living in a David Foster Wallace novel, then we are living in a novel written by Tom Sharpe.

[YL]

Lord McDonald, a former senior civil servant in the Foreign Office, on Johnson and Pincher:

https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784