UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unseen-text-messages-hint-at-carrie-johnsons-second-party-at-no-10-6rgthhcvl

It appears that there may be evidence for Carrie Johnson's flat party that was ignored by Gray and the Met. This was during June 2020, when indoor gatherings with 2+ individuals were banned.

will this get the tories to wake up and kick bojo out

It’s unlikely to be the tipping point, but it adds more fuel to the fire. Johnson has to lose the support of 54 MPs to face a confidence vote, and then lose the support of a further 130 MPs to actually be booted out. Meeting the first threshold is feasible - the second looks a lot harder.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder if they're now waiting for Wakefield and Tiverton. Any leadership change could not be executed before those by-elections and would just ensure the seats are lost. Maybe the plotters want to make sure Boris gets all the blame for it and then make their move as it becomes harder and harder for MPs to deny that he is a vote loser now.

They're double-barreled red wall & blue wall elections, too: Wakefield is almost certainly already lost & Tiverton & Honiton is basically a tossup, & not even one that really matters all that much in the long run because it's obviously just a by-election & the Lib Dems always tend to do significantly better in those anyway, but a loss for the Tories in both on the same day - & on no less a date than the 6th anniversary of the Brexit referendum - might certainly punch a rather significant hole in BoJo's aforementioned electability argument. Given the drip-drip-drip of 1922 letter submissions from Tory MPs that has honestly been proving a lot steadier than I would've predicted at the outset, I won't at all be shocked if a bad showing in Wakefield + Tiverton & Honiton triggers the VoNC, but I still like his chances in such a vote - if it's even called in the first place - because most Tory MPs are ultimately cowards, & that'd really be the absolute worst-case scenario for the Tories: publicly shackling themselves to him for at least another year, as if solely to put a smile on Keir's face.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/unseen-text-messages-hint-at-carrie-johnsons-second-party-at-no-10-6rgthhcvl

It appears that there may be evidence for Carrie Johnson's flat party that was ignored by Gray and the Met. This was during June 2020, when indoor gatherings with 2+ individuals were banned.

will this get the tories to wake up and kick bojo out

It’s unlikely to be the tipping point, but it adds more fuel to the fire. Johnson has to lose the support of 54 MPs to face a confidence vote, and then lose the support of a further 130 MPs to actually be booted out. Meeting the first threshold is feasible - the second looks a lot harder.

This is why I don't understand the (probably Labour wish casting) theory that BoJo will call a snap election and force the Tories to support him. It would just be an act of vindictiveness, when his own personal power is seemingly more likely to remain intact through winning a confidence vote - even though many past PMs would have probably seen the writing on the wall even after winning said votes and resigned.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wonder if they're now waiting for

Heard this a million times. I'll believe there's a leadership challenge when I see one.

[Pericles]

I wonder if they're now waiting for

Heard this a million times. I'll believe there's a leadership challenge when I see one.

I don't think they'd want to rush into knifing the guy who got them an 80-seat majority. However, it's hard to see them being stupid enough to wait three years, know they will lose their seats with him, not have anything other than electability attracting them to him anyway, and then just go ahead and lose an election. Inertia is powerful and these leadership changes always take a while.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wonder if they're now waiting for

Heard this a million times. I'll believe there's a leadership challenge when I see one.

I don't think they'd want to rush into knifing the guy who got them an 80-seat majority. However, it's hard to see them being stupid enough to wait three years, know they will lose their seats with him, not have anything other than electability attracting them to him anyway, and then just go ahead and lose an election. Inertia is powerful and these leadership changes always take a while.

Yawn. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Blair]

Labour MPs knew Brown would lose them seats in 2010, they know Mr Tony would lose them seats in 2005 and the same for the Tories with Major in 1997- all three show why it’s hard to depose a sitting Prime Minister.

The Conservatives have had numerous chances- I’m old enough to remember when you only had the locals and conference as the ‘fake’ triggers to get rid of a leader. They’ve had dozens of chances.

[Pericles]

Labour MPs knew Brown would lose them seats in 2010, they know Mr Tony would lose them seats in 2005 and the same for the Tories with Major in 1997- all three show why it’s hard to depose a sitting Prime Minister.

The Conservatives have had numerous chances- I’m old enough to remember when you only had the locals and conference as the ‘fake’ triggers to get rid of a leader. They’ve had dozens of chances.

Blair was never going to actually lose the 2005 election though. Brown and Major should have been knifed though, Labour has less of an excuse because 1992 was such a huge upset that years of bad polls didn't count for as much. The track record isn't great for party leaders that are electoral losers, especially if they're Conservatives.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Any plausible challenger to Major would have done worse, and it's not clear that any of the challengers to Brown would have done better. To depose a leader you either need an alternative or a consensus that literally any alternative would be better.

I think Johnson should start worrying about whether he'd win a VoNC when he sees Cabinet-level resignations. As it is even the former Cabinet ministers who Johnson has frozen out aren't calling for him to go.

[CumbrianLefty]

Any plausible challenger to Major would have done worse

Heseltine might - might - have done a bit better. Tories knew they were destined to lose in 1997 no matter who the leader was, though - and acted accordingly.

[Torrain]

It’s unlikely to be the tipping point, but it adds more fuel to the fire. Johnson has to lose the support of 54 MPs to face a confidence vote, and then lose the support of a further 130 MPs to actually be booted out. Meeting the first threshold is feasible - the second looks a lot harder.

This is why I don't understand the (probably Labour wish casting) theory that BoJo will call a snap election and force the Tories to support him. It would just be an act of vindictiveness, when his own personal power is seemingly more likely to remain intact through winning a confidence vote - even though many past PMs would have probably seen the writing on the wall even after winning said votes and resigned.

It's almost certainly wishcasting, as you said. Most PMs with a polling deficit hang on for the full 5 years of their parliament (see Callaghan, Major, Brown) - aware that two years of certainty is better than a long shot at another five.

I can see how people could reason themselves into thinking Johnson would try it though. His willingness to suspend MPs in 2019, weakening his minority government, and then call an election amidst some very bizarre polling (remember that there was a 3-way tie between Conservative, Labour and the Brexit Party in the summer of 2019), has left Johnson with a reputation for gambling.

Furthermore, his recovery after partygate "round 1" in January, was due to MPs rallying round the flag after two events - first the defection of Christian Wakeford to Labour, and then the war in Ukraine. If Johnson called an election tomorrow, a similar effect would go into play, especially among vulnerable Red Wall MPs. 2019 showed us that independent candidates, who oppose their prior leader, tend to do pretty badly (see Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry etc). Embracing the party agenda, and hoping for the best would be the only option for most of Johnson's first term MPs.

To reiterate - if Johnson survives the summer, he'll probably cling onto this parliament for as long as he can. But as soon as parliament is dissolved, he becomes the only lifeline for dozens of his MPs - so the threat of holding an early election becomes a Sword of Damocles hanging over the government benches.

[Torrain]

Former Attorney General Jeremy Wright has joined calls for Johnson to resign with immediate effect.

Total number of MPs calling for Johnson’s resignation now stands at 25, per Sky News’ Tom Larkin, who’s doing a stellar job keeping on top of the letters.

Full statement here: https://mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1531249491239751681

[TheTide]

Former Attorney General Jeremy Wright has joined calls for Johnson to resign with immediate effect.

Total number of MPs calling for Johnson’s resignation now stands at 25, per Sky News’ Tom Larkin, who’s doing a stellar job keeping on top of the letters.

Full statement here: https://mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1531249491239751681

Wright was actually talked of as a future leader during the May premiership. He was possibly boring, personality and charisma free enough to have emerged as a John Major figure in another universe.

[Torrain]

Former Attorney General Jeremy Wright has joined calls for Johnson to resign with immediate effect.

Total number of MPs calling for Johnson’s resignation now stands at 25, per Sky News’ Tom Larkin, who’s doing a stellar job keeping on top of the letters.

Full statement here: https://mobile.twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1531249491239751681

Wright was actually talked of as a future leader during the May premiership. He was possibly boring, personality and charisma free enough to have emerged as a John Major figure in another universe.

Huh - I missed that entirely. Crazy to think how many divergent paths there have been over the past five years.

On Wright in particular, I wonder what the appetite for removing Boris is like amongst former May ministers. I can’t imagine all of them are thrilled by the incumbent - but I imagine that if several of them moved at once, Johnson loyalists would immediately move to decry the rebels as merely “taking revenge for 2019” or something.

[Torrain]

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489

This is quite a trickle, I do wonder if Boris might be thinking it's better to have the no-confidence vote now where he's almost certain to win it rather than latter.

[YL]

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489

Another "some time ago" one.  I wonder whether many new letters are actually being written, as opposed to people who'd already written them going public.

[Oryxslayer]

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1531275275056578561?s=20&t=LwkjoIz...

Is there any leg to this rumor, or is ElectionMaps just talking out of his ass?

[Torrain]

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489

Another "some time ago" one.  I wonder whether many new letters are actually being written, as opposed to people who'd already written them going public.

I guess that is the question - it's worth nothing if there are no new letters. That being said, the fact that there is now an groundswell of MPs going public has to mean something - even if it's just constituent pressure.

[Torrain]

Another one - Elliot Colburn, who's seat is uber-marginal with the Lib Dems (under 650 votes), has put his letter in.

I have to wonder whether going home for constituency surgeries over the weekend may have provided the motivation to get him over the line...

Source: https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1531270078674751489

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1531275275056578561?s=20&t=LwkjoIzr6QI46ZQY6jWM6A
Is there any leg to this rumor, or is ElectionMaps just talking out of his ass?

I've been trying to get my head around this one. Most Westminster correspondents would suggest that this isn't plausible, as Brady stays pretty tight-lipped about the number of letters (and there were a lot of rumours like this in the month leading up to May's confidence vote).

However... We're in weird territory here. The rebels are clearly (despite their protests) coordinated, and there are a number of MPs who've confirmed their letters off-the-record to journalists. And most importantly - there's a real sense that Brady wouldn't announce the vote until the recall is over (both in fear of the bad press that overshadowing the jubilee would bring, and because not enough MPs would make it back to London in time for a vote, which is held within 24 hours of it's announcement).

To add to the confusion, Brady is known to phone up MPs to confirm that they want to submit their letter, both randomly, to throw them off, and then calling all of them when the threshold is met, to confirm that the requisite number of letters are valid. Once he starts calling more than 3 rebels at a time, then it'll be impossible to keep the cat in the bag.

Finally, it's worth noting that we're now at a higher number of public rebels than we had with Theresa May. There 20 public rebels when the 48 vote threshold was met, and we're now sat at 27 rebels for a 54 vote threshold.

So it's unlikely, but not impossible. Sorry that this post is so longwinded to basically just say "maybe", but that's all the context we've got at the minute.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A no-confidence vote would be an almost certain win for Boris, there doesn't seem to be any obvious replacement. I don't think Tory MP's want their goverment to become even more chaotic ?

[Blair]

Of course it will be before the by-election…

It’s a big flaw in the system that it can be triggered by accident.

[Blair]

The reason I suspect we’re finding out is because MPs have told constituents to wait until Gray- and are now having to say something.

The reason why Tory MPs were spooked at first about partygate is because the emails from constituents were coming in by the barrel load and MPs broadly know their patch- if you’re getting letters from people who never write to you usually, say they’re conservatives and who live in your strong wards you get a lot more worried…

There was certainly a sense of Tory MPs getting their local WI, the chair of the bowls club, the rotary club members etc giving them a hard time over it.

[Torrain]

Another two critics

Nickie Aiken has called for Johnson to call a confidence vote in himself to “end speculation”, at the end of a long email to constituents that described her feelings on reading the Gray report as “incredulous and appalled”. Aiken’s seat includes Westminster, a notable council gain for Labour in May.

Dan Poulter calls for outright resignation, saying that misleading Parliament “cannot be tolerated”, adds that the question of whether he has submitted a letter is a “private matter”.

[Torrain]

Andrew Bridgen has re-submitted his 1922 letter. Says that while the initial stage of the Ukraine war made him retract his letter, “new revelations” have convinced him Johnson has to go.

A blow to the government, because he was one of only two MPs to publicly recant their letters.

Full statement attached to this tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1531321038470012929

Edit: Weird fact: this will be the fourth 1922 letter Bridgen has written. He wrote one against Cameron in 2013 (later retracted), wrote one against May, and then two against Johnson.