UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1508714461653307407

Britain. 2022.

Well, to be more accurate its "The British Media, 2022".

Of course a lot of focus will be on Jamie Wallis this morning, and rightly so. But yesterday was notable for one of the high priestesses of TERFism, Kathleen Stock, openly declaring that bisexual as well as trans people were now officially "haram". Of course after the T/Q/B will come the G, and then all of the L's who do not fully subscribe to GC ideology. Thus leaving just the core of misandrist second wave "political" lesbians who have been driving this all along.

I was listening to LBC last night and someone called in to complain that most trans men were actually lesbians and that it was because being a lesbian ‘isn’t cool among young people.’  I’m very worried by how much of an information loop people are getting stuck in.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1508714461653307407

The other one is that there are no more 'goths' anymore because they are all 'transed'

These are actual discussions

It's Britain's Q-Anon but actually worse.

Britain. 2022.

Well, to be more accurate its "The British Media, 2022".

Of course a lot of focus will be on Jamie Wallis this morning, and rightly so. But yesterday was notable for one of the high priestesses of TERFism, Kathleen Stock, openly declaring that bisexual as well as trans people were now officially "haram". Of course after the T/Q/B will come the G, and then all of the L's who do not fully subscribe to GC ideology. Thus leaving just the core of misandrist second wave "political" lesbians who have been driving this all along.

I was listening to LBC last night and someone called in to complain that most trans men were actually lesbians and that it was because being a lesbian ‘isn’t cool among young people.’  I’m very worried by how much of an information loop people are getting stuck in.

[CumbrianLefty]

U-turn now reported.

This is the ‘new’ Downing Street operation of course.

Meet the new boss, same as.....

[YL]

David Warburton, Tory MP for Somerton & Vroom, has had the Tory whip suspended:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1510301596609130498

A very Tory sounding scandal, this one...

[Torrain]

David Warburton, Tory MP for Somerton & Vroom, has had the Tory whip suspended:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1510301596609130498

A very Tory sounding scandal, this one...

Starting to feel a bit like late-stage Major, with a steady stream of whip withdrawals, drug stories and corruption scandals.

Also worth noting that the Lib Dems held Somerton and Frome until 2015, and have retained second-place in each election since. In the event of a by-election, there’s decent odds that the Tories lose the seat to them. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Possible there are byelections in Wakefield and Somerton/Frome in quick succession - if nothing else this is likely to demonstrate the de facto Labour/LibDem electoral alliance again.

[Conservatopia]

The past year has all had a very Back to Basics feel about it...

[Pericles]

Possible there are byelections in Wakefield and Somerton/Frome in quick succession - if nothing else this is likely to demonstrate the de facto Labour/LibDem electoral alliance again.

After Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, Somerton and Frome should be an easy pickup for the LibDems. And in this environment, Labour should be easily flipping Wakefield.

I wonder if the LibDems will double their caucus in the parliament again lol.

[Torrain]

Possible there are byelections in Wakefield and Somerton/Frome in quick succession - if nothing else this is likely to demonstrate the de facto Labour/LibDem electoral alliance again.

After Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, Somerton and Frome should be an easy pickup for the LibDems. And in this environment, Labour should be easily flipping Wakefield.

I wonder if the LibDems will double their caucus in the parliament again lol.

Now that Brexit is essentially settled, and they’ve been able to slowly shed their “Stop Brexit Whatever The Cost” branding, the Lib Dems have made a remarkable recovery as the middle class’s reliable party of protest.

[Blair]

Usual warnings but there’s been a slight shift in polling over the last week with Labour starting to get larger leads- I expect it’s linked to the cost of living and Ukraine becoming more about refugees.

Wouldn’t be shocked if either Patel or Sunak are sacked in a panic if the Government are still in hot water this summer- it’s usual for Governments to have one big reshuffle before a GE.

[CumbrianLefty]

Government has supposedly laid a fiendish "trap" for Labour over trans rights, we are told.

It would be amusing that in the event of it indeed going to a vote, there were more Tory MPs who defied their own party line by voting to include trans people in banning conversion therapy than those Labour MPs who voted against it. And that is quite possible IMO.

[Torrain]

Usual warnings but there’s been a slight shift in polling over the last week with Labour starting to get larger leads- I expect it’s linked to the cost of living and Ukraine becoming more about refugees.

Wouldn’t be shocked if either Patel or Sunak are sacked in a panic if the Government are still in hot water this summer- it’s usual for Governments to have one big reshuffle before a GE.

If Johnson’s response to a drubbing in the May local elections is “I hear you, and I’m sacking the Chancellor/Home Sec”, it might gain him a point or two, but I’d expect that most observers would immediately characterise him as sacrificing someone else to save his own career, again.

I’m reminded of Jeremy Thorpe’s quip about MacMillan after he fired 1/3 of the cabinet, including his chancellor to try and save his premiership in 1962:
“Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life.”

_{Yes, that’s massively hypocritical by Thorpe, given he literally tried to take another man’s life to save his own reputation, but it’s still a bloody good line.}

[Blair]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1511646245223288832

This was also shown in the Ipsos polling- he’s had two weeks of bad press, especially as I think it’s the first time people have really got to see him*. Focus groups picked up on the barcode thing.

I’m increasingly coming to the view that Boris would in his perfect world sack him- most of the bad decisions have come from him or from him blocking policies- I think over the past month he’s blocked at least three popular policies.

The plan to wait until October for more support is stupid and peak treasury brain. People will by then see a generous package as too late and only touching the sides.

*I have said since October that he is not a great politician- his Budget response was pretty tetchy and was in a way a warm up to his performance this time.

[Blair]

Usual warnings but there’s been a slight shift in polling over the last week with Labour starting to get larger leads- I expect it’s linked to the cost of living and Ukraine becoming more about refugees.

Wouldn’t be shocked if either Patel or Sunak are sacked in a panic if the Government are still in hot water this summer- it’s usual for Governments to have one big reshuffle before a GE.

If Johnson’s response to a drubbing in the May local elections is “I hear you, and I’m sacking the Chancellor/Home Sec”, it might gain him a point or two, but I’d expect that most observers would immediately characterise him as sacrificing someone else to save his own career, again.

I’m reminded of Jeremy Thorpe’s quip about MacMillan after he fired 1/3 of the cabinet, including his chancellor to try and save his premiership in 1962:
“Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life.”

_{Yes, that’s massively hypocritical by Thorpe, given he literally tried to take another man’s life to save his own reputation, but it’s still a bloody good line.}

It would look like this and could easily detonate the parliamentary party but both Patel and Sunak are causing problems for various reasons and pose a threat to the re-election prospects. Patel is hated by the electorate and has causes very bad coverage over Ukraine.

If you wanted to be very bold (and slightly suicidal) put Gove as Chancellor and make Shapps, Zahawi or Javid Home Sec.

[TheTide]

What the YouGov shows is that the two major parties are more popular than all of their senior politicians (who are known enough to be judged). This is actually somewhat unusual.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/status/1511734253826060298

[Torrain]

It would look like this and could easily detonate the parliamentary party but both Patel and Sunak are causing problems for various reasons and pose a threat to the re-election prospects. Patel is hated by the electorate and has causes very bad coverage over Ukraine.

If you wanted to be very bold (and slightly suicidal) put Gove as Chancellor and make Shapps, Zahawi or Javid Home Sec.

Tbh - if Gove ever gets one of the Great Offices, I always thought he’d be sent to the Home Office - a poisoned chalice that would allow him to flex the political and technocratic muscles that have allowed him to stay in ministerial office for 12 years, but keeping him busy enough that he doesn’t have time to sleep, let alone plot.

Given he was (prior to his famous Brutus moment) considering a unity ticket with Johnson in 2016, I could understand him coveting No. 11, but I don’t think any PM would give a politician like Gove that office. The Chancellor commands too much power and public attention to give it to someone who’s entire public persona has become “semi-competent fixer, highly-competent backstabber”.

*

I do agree with your points on Patel and Sunak. Both are becoming political liabilities, and provide Johnson with a chance to shore himself up. There are basically no good reasons left to keep Patel, and Sunak’s collapsing popularity provides some cover for Johnson to dispose of an (albeit weakened) rival.

The only other thought that occurs, is that it will become very poor optics if Boris is seen to be trying to choose one of those two specific politicians to use as a human shield. A man with Boris’ record of racialised comments, choosing between two British-Asian politicians as a scapegoat would be... …unfortunate.

[Zinneke]

Hasn’t the good reason he has kept Patel the fact that she is the only Cabinet member who is remotely loyal?

[CumbrianLefty]

Hasn’t the good reason he has kept Patel the fact that she is the only Cabinet member who is remotely loyal?

There's an argument she is actually some sort of human shield for him.

[Blair]

Hasn’t the good reason he has kept Patel the fact that she is the only Cabinet member who is remotely loyal?

That and the fact that she still has a following in the parliamentary party- she did the rubber chicken dinner circuit for years and was at one time beloved by the party faithful- that is less so true now, but there’s still a sense that whoever replaces her might be more liberal.

[Blair]

Operation save Rishi in full swing, with claims he’s been smeared and that it’s part of a coordinated plot.

[Torrain]

Operation save Rishi in full swing, with claims he’s been smeared and that it’s part of a coordinated plot.

“Help me, I’ve been defamed with politically embarrassing truths!”

[CumbrianLefty]

Operation save Rishi in full swing, with claims he’s been smeared and that it’s part of a coordinated plot.

As with the PM, he is paying the price for a lengthy period of the sort of uncritical - and often overtly sycophantic - media coverage which makes you think you can get away with literally anything.

[Zinneke]

It's still a mystery how his team never covered such a routine base when insulating him from potential attacks.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Sunak has now admitted he held a green card until October of last year.