UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[CumbrianLefty]

Well if they want Johnson out and a replacement in before May's elections, the bottom line is that his enemies will have to do something fairly soon. All the signs are - and this actually seems to have been a surprise to some, though heaven knows why - that he has no intention of going voluntarily and will try to bluster his way out of this, as he has done so often before.

Actually doing that PPB last night was impressively brazen even for him.

[Torrain]

(Full figures are Lab 313, Con 234, SNP 55, LD 24, Plaid 2, Green 1, Other 1 (Exmouth), so Labour just short of a majority.  Take with a pinch of salt.)

So enough for a small majority Lib-Lab coalition? That would be something…

Fascinating that, despite their decimation in 2015 they still remain such key players, particularly as an option for disaffected voters who want to protest the major party they typically support, while finding themselves incapable of voting for the other.

[LAB-LIB]

The Tories in London will be particularly worried as councillors are generally the only people who they can get to canvass- it would be interesting to look at the membership data in some areas that were once areas of strength e.g. Chiswick, Richmond, Putney, Croydon.

I’m unsure re the new boundaries but a good General election for labour could be an absolute bloodbath for the Conservatives in outer London.

If you enter that YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus and select the new boundaries, then Labour gains in London compared with Electoral Calculus's notionals are:

Beckenham
Chingford & Woodford Green
Croydon East
Croydon South
Eltham & Chislehurst
Finchley & Muswell Hill
Fulham & Chelsea West
Hendon & Golders Green
High Barnet & Mill Hill
Stanmore & Edgware
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Westminster & Chelsea East

Oh, and the Lib Dems win Wimbledon and both Sutton seats.  So yes, pretty bad for the Tories in outer London (seven seats left, mostly on the Kent and Essex fringes) and a complete wipeout in inner London.

(Full figures are Lab 313, Con 234, SNP 55, LD 24, Plaid 2, Green 1, Other 1 (Exmouth), so Labour just short of a majority.  Take with a pinch of salt.)

So that Iain Duncan Smith defeated, Thatcher's seat going back to Labour, and Boris Johson losing his own seat. Starting to look like he'll stand down as an MP (though he probably wouldn't if he wasn't going to been Prime Minister anyway).

[Torrain]

So that Iain Duncan Smith defeated, Thatcher's seat going back to Labour, and Boris Johson losing his own seat. Starting to look like he'll stand down as an MP (though he probably wouldn't if he wasn't going to been Prime Minister anyway).

Johnson’s only sitting on a 7,000 vote majority (Owen Patterson had a majority of over 21,000), in an urban constituency in Greater London. If he stands down as MP as well as PM, and forces a by-election, it could be chaotic. The change in national polling alone between 2019 and now would likely cut that majority down to a sliver. Not to mention the demographics, the ongoing scandal, and the chance to ‘send the government a message.’

The narrative for the Tories (and the new PM) if Johnson’s seat were to flip Labour would be something to behold…

However - any by-election would be held on the old lines, which seem to be better in London for the Tories than the new boundaries, but still, it would be a far cry from the post-Cameron or Blair by-elections, where the party was able to just hand a safe seat over to a member of the party faithful.

[TheTide]

Just breaking, but it appears that Liz has thrown Andy under the bus.

Metaphorically speaking.

[Conservatopia]

If you enter that YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus and select the new boundaries, then Labour gains in London compared with Electoral Calculus's notionals are:

Uxbridge & South Ruislip

I wonder what the MP for that seat is thinking. If he's worried about losing his seat he might put pressure on the PM to step down.

[Blair]

Just breaking, but it appears that Liz has thrown Andy under the bus.

Metaphorically speaking.

I took this as a sign that Brian is calling the shots now.

[Blair]

Andrew Bridgen has submitted a letter of no confidence.

He’s a devout brexiteer but is someone who’s done so many comically brilliant things that I’m struggling to remember a good story about him- other than his long running crusade against Jim Vaz.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1481741337951195136?t=FFeZBxRMvoZj_8FNvhoP...

Andrew Bridgen has submitted a letter of no confidence.

He’s a devout brexiteer but is someone who’s done so many comically brilliant things that I’m struggling to remember a good story about him- other than his long running crusade against Jim Vaz.

Yes - one of the few people that just comes across as 'low tolerance' or a rabble rouser. Of course the anti restriction coalition may matter a lot more than any Brexit loyalty.

[Blair]

In a sign of how the last two years are I generally could not remember which month the funeral was and which type of restrictions we were in.

A very small part of me says that this looks like a way of preparing us for the Gray report which the Tories are hoping focuses more on the culture of drinking in Downing Street and number 10 rather than just the p.m but I think it’s more likely that this is just leaks for the sake of causing pain.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It seems with Donald Trump gone, the world has finally found its new laughing stock!

To translate the headline and teaser from yesterday's editorial of a major German newspaper's website: "Boris Johnson doesn't govern. He is only playing PM. The man is caught in the biggest, perhaps last crisis of his term. It becomes apparent what he always was: a seducer and a loudmouth."

(https://www.sueddeutsche.de/meinung/boris-johnson-grossbritannien-brexit-corona-party-1.5506253?reduced=true)

[Statilius the Epicurean]

One of the most interesting things about that poll is the Lib Dem VI is only up 1% on their 2019 result. That suggests to me there's been a significant LD -> Lab movement which has been matched by a movement Con -> LD. The much-speculated "pincer movement" that would be really alarming for the Tories.

[CumbrianLefty]

YouGov now has the Labour lead at 11 points - their highest in any poll since the 2015 GE.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/dailyecho/status/1481973895838142465?s=20

A tremendous loss to our city. Alan has been involved in Southampton politics since the 80s, and has been a real champion for the city as well as for green energy-related causes. He was also briefly a minister during Blair's second 'term'. I'm not sure who is likely to replace him and I don't think there's any clear frontrunner, though I'm sure a number of the local councillors might stand.

[Continential]

One of the most interesting things about that poll is the Lib Dem VI is only up 1% on their 2019 result. That suggests to me there's been a significant LD -> Lab movement which has been matched by a movement Con -> LD. The much-speculated "pincer movement" that would be really alarming for the Tories.

It would be interesting to see a German style vote change graph.

[Cassius]

RIP Wilf Johnson’s swing. The true victim of all these shenanigans.

[Blair]

RIP Wilf Johnson’s swing. The true victim of all these shenanigans.

Someone joked that you couldn’t exactly imagine the staff in Browns Downing Street wanting to tell the boss they broke his child’s swing in a drunk rampage.

[YL]

According to the Independent, Johnson has a cunning plan...

... to save his own skin by getting various officials to take the blame for partygate and resign.  Apparently it's called "Operation Save Big Dog".

[Estrella]

BBC again at the forefront of investigative journalism.

How many wine bottles can you fit in a suitcase? The latest revelation - published by the Telegraph - includes the detail that staff were reportedly sent to a nearby shop with a suitcase, that was brought back "filled with bottles of wine".

How many might that be? Following a very unscientific experiment - how big is a suitcase, after all - we found we could fit roughly around 30 bottles, or possibly one Nebuchadnezzar, in a medium-to-large suitcase. Although it would be less if you wanted to pad out the bottles to avoid breakage. And would there be room for snacks? Do you sacrifice a bottle of wine for a family-sized pack of crisps?

The research continues.

[Torrain]

The working week is over, and MPs can escape back to their constituencies until Monday. As such, it feels like a good moment to review Boris' standing within the party, specifically the 1922 Committee.

54 letters of no-confidence (15% of all current Conservative MPs) are required to force a vote of confidence in Johnson. At present, the Telegraph estimates that 24 MPs have submitted letters thus far.

Exact estimates of letters submitted vary, from 20 in the Guardian, to 30 in the Daily Record. Given their closeness to the party, I'm putting some stock in the Telegraph's numbers, although given the seriousness with which the 1922 Committee takes their privacy, all these numbers could be a bit off. I'd imagine the various estimates come from rebels (probably either old May allies, or acting on behalf of the potential candidates) holding their own informal whip counts.

Returning from speculation to hard numbers, only 3 MPs have publicly confirmed submission of a letter:

• Sir Roger Gale (North Thanet)
• Douglas Ross (Moray)
• Andrew Bridgen (North West Leicester)

Unconditional calls for resignation have additionally come from several MPs (estimated to be among the letter-sending cohort), listed below:

• William Wragg (Hazel Grove)
• Caroline Nokes (Romsey and Southampton North)
• Anne Marie-Moss (Newton Abbot)

One interesting quirk -  Marie-Moss has revealed that she sent a letter to the 1922 Committee in the past month. However, as she had the whip withdrawn after voting with Labour on cutting VAT on fuel bills, her letter (submitted pre-suspension) is almost certainly invalid.

[Silent Hunter]

BBC again at the forefront of investigative journalism.

How many wine bottles can you fit in a suitcase? The latest revelation - published by the Telegraph - includes the detail that staff were reportedly sent to a nearby shop with a suitcase, that was brought back "filled with bottles of wine".

How many might that be? Following a very unscientific experiment - how big is a suitcase, after all - we found we could fit roughly around 30 bottles, or possibly one Nebuchadnezzar, in a medium-to-large suitcase. Although it would be less if you wanted to pad out the bottles to avoid breakage. And would there be room for snacks? Do you sacrifice a bottle of wine for a family-sized pack of crisps?

The research continues.

Some of the music radio stations had a go themselves. If Capital Radio is mocking you, you're in trouble.

[Blair]

My hunch is still that the report will leave enough room for Boris to vindicate himself; although as Dominic Cummings said it doesn't help that they briefed that he will be cleared (it makes it look like a whitewash & Labour have been preparing for this in their language) and equally there's a chance that Gray will accuse No.10 of trying to cover stuff up if we get even more reports.

However even if he stays the really fatal thing is the paralysis that it will cause- MPs and Ministers do not want to be seen as going with a sinking ship and will not back unpopular policies.

But this will no doubt focus minds!

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1482443160542396422

[Blair]

It's a sign of the times that my reaction was 'well that's good but it could be higher.'

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1482442842437992450

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1482442710984368130

[Torrain]

It's a sign of the times that my reaction was 'well that's good but it could be higher.'

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1482442842437992450
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1482442710984368130

Woah.

Worth remembering the 1997 vote was:

Labour: 43%
Conservative: 30%
Lib Dem: 17%

And that the 2019 election was largely the reverse (Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 7%)

While Labour may possibly be at a high water mark right now (subject to a post-scandal correction, and a new PM’s honeymoon period), it’s incredible to think what a change of political fortune this polling represents.

[Oryxslayer]

It's a sign of the times that my reaction was 'well that's good but it could be higher.'

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1482442842437992450
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1482442710984368130

Woah.

Worth remembering the 1997 vote was:

Labour: 43%
Conservative: 30%
Lib Dem: 17%

And that the 2019 election was largely the reverse (Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 7%)

While Labour may possibly be at a high water mark right now (subject to a post-scandal correction, and a new PM’s honeymoon period), it’s incredible to think what a change of political fortune this polling represents.

Which of course is the big question mark that I as an outside observer have right now: When Johnson goes (he's gonna fall eventually, it's hard to survive long being underwater with your own base voters) and a successor cabinet comes in, will the situation return to respectable Tory leads, or will this be the turning point that Starmer needed to finally make his competent government pitch applicable and desirable? Its hard to imagine in the latter situation that the leads would remain this big, but it is imaginable that they persist and there becomes a "government in waiting" - Labour had poll leads for almost all of Major's five elected years as PM.