UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

Most evangelicals at my school would now be voting Labour- because it was an inner city ex comp. So it’s a bit more complex than just religion.

[YL]

It's worth pointing out that the wedge issues like abortion and LGBT+ rights often important to Evangelical support for Republicans in the US are traditionally outside of party politics in the UK, regarded as matters of conscience which are free votes in the Commons (as is capital punishment).

Of course there is also the traditional link between Anglicanism, especially High Church Anglicanism, and the Conservative Party, Nonconformists being more likely to be Liberal (and later Labour).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Major rule breaking by the PM and others last Xmas seems to have been just discovered by the media.

They only discovered it now?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's worth pointing out that the wedge issues like abortion and LGBT+ rights often important to Evangelical support for Republicans in the US are traditionally outside of party politics in the UK, regarded as matters of conscience which are free votes in the Commons (as is capital punishment).

Of course there is also the traditional link between Anglicanism, especially High Church Anglicanism, and the Conservative Party, Nonconformists being more likely to be Liberal (and later Labour).

I know that, but it still seems weird for them to vote for the liberal democrats.

[Fubart Solman]

Is it true that British Evangelicals tend to vote liberal democrat ?

I grew up in a UK evangelical household, which was typically Lib-Dem (occasionally Tory in certain constituencies). It was pretty common in our congregation too.

I know things are a little more fractured now, but that was certainly the state of affairs in the 00s and the coalition years.

As a disclaimer, most of that time was in Scotland, where tactical voting has become more common, and we lived in a LibDem-SNP marginal seat.

Was there any particular reason for this ? Seems odd given that the libdem don't seem aligned to evangelicals on any particular issue and the electoral behaviour of their American brethren

Not really an explanation for why evangelicals vote Lib Dem, but it should be pointed out that the Lib Dems’ former leader, Tim Farron, is very much evangelical.

[CumbrianLefty]

Major rule breaking by the PM and others last Xmas seems to have been just discovered by the media.

They only discovered it now?

That is, indeed, a very intriguing question.

[Blair]

Finally a council by election election worth covering- The Conservatives have lost their majority on Worthing Council. This is a long running trend going back years but it’s an area people have been noting- which is that southern councils like this are slowly losing their once fortress like vote shares.

It’s been noted there’s been a lot of internal migration- some from Brighton but also from London. Ofc it’s worth remembering Brighton once had a Conservative seat- one only narrowly lost in 2015.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1466729259033104389

[YL]

Not only have the Tories lost their majority there but Labour have drawn level with them for "largest party" and could take control if they choose to ask for Lib Dem support to do so, and they will actually take overall control if they repeat May 2021's results next May.  Red Worthing may be a thing.

It used to have the reputation of being the sort of "Costa Geriatrica" type place which would never vote Labour in a million years, but this has clearly changed.  I assume the demographic change has been ongoing for a bit and now Labour have got organised the politics are catching up.

[Blair]

It is interesting how by-election mania has been slightly calmed down by the very sensible decision to put the vote totals- it's a bit harder for everyone to get so worked up over a 400 vote election.

Not only have the Tories lost their majority there but Labour have drawn level with them for "largest party" and could take control if they choose to ask for Lib Dem support to do so, and they will actually take overall control if they repeat May 2021's results next May.  Red Worthing may be a thing.

It used to have the reputation of being the sort of "Costa Geriatrica" type place which would never vote Labour in a million years, but this has clearly changed.  I assume the demographic change has been ongoing for a bit and now Labour have got organised the politics are catching up.

It's a very hard battle within Labour but it is slowly dawning on many that Worthing (current majority 15K) is much more likely going to be returning a Labour MP than Mansfield (currently 20K)

It would be interesting to know how much of it is down to internal migration, how much of it is organising & how much is previous conservative voters switching or the Lib Dem vote falling away- Worthing I believe voted Leave so it isn't even like it's similar to the other cases we've seen.

A strong Labour minority government could easily see a significant number of seats that were last held in 2005 or never previously held- while still struggling in seats we lost in 2017/2019. I don't think it's really sunk in yet just how screwed we are in Teeside for example

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's interesting, particularly because the urban strip west of Brighton has not had the sort of labour market statistics usually associated with reliably Conservative constituencies for quite a while now, but an important caveat to be aware of: when a ruling group is not used to a challenge, particularly from a new direction, it can often be very easy to push over in local elections but this does not always translate so well in higher-turnout environments. And in general momentum is a much bigger thing in local politics than national.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think it's really sunk in yet just how screwed we are in Teeside for example

A lot of that is down to Houchen though, fortunately people like him aren't two a penny in the Tories.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's worth pointing out that the wedge issues like abortion and LGBT+ rights often important to Evangelical support for Republicans in the US are traditionally outside of party politics in the UK, regarded as matters of conscience which are free votes in the Commons (as is capital punishment).

Of course there is also the traditional link between Anglicanism, especially High Church Anglicanism, and the Conservative Party, Nonconformists being more likely to be Liberal (and later Labour).

But both Abortion and LGBT rights were both issues the liberals seemed to lie on the left of the main parties in terms of parlimentary legislation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think it's really sunk in yet just how screwed we are in Teeside for example

A lot of that is down to Houchen though, fortunately people like him aren't two a penny in the Tories.

And this is one part of the country (and I mean Teesside specifically not the wider North East) where local Labour parties have a spectacularly horrible image way worse than that of the national party at its lowest ebbs.

[YL]

It's interesting, particularly because the urban strip west of Brighton has not had the sort of labour market statistics usually associated with reliably Conservative constituencies for quite a while now, but an important caveat to be aware of: when a ruling group is not used to a challenge, particularly from a new direction, it can often be very easy to push over in local elections but this does not always translate so well in higher-turnout environments. And in general momentum is a much bigger thing in local politics than national.

Yes, though in the more winnable of the two current Worthing seats (East & Shoreham) the swing happened in 2017 and it already looks like a winnable marginal.  Worthing West contains some Arun wards and still only looks like it would fall in a landslide.

The proposed new boundaries have a single "Worthing" seat though it wouldn't contain all of the borough and would contain the west side of Lancing (in Adur district).  It would contain all the wards which have been voting Labour so should be a reasonable Labour target if it comes to pass in that form.  (Indeed Electoral Calculus -- yes I know -- currently gives a predicted Tory majority of 527 in the proposed revised Worthing, making it only Tory leaning compared with the country by less than a percentage point.)

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think it's really sunk in yet just how screwed we are in Teeside for example

A lot of that is down to Houchen though, fortunately people like him aren't two a penny in the Tories.

And this is one part of the country (and I mean Teesside specifically not the wider North East) where local Labour parties have a spectacularly horrible image way worse than that of the national party at its lowest ebbs.

Yes, and they have been the "establishment" locally in a way that is widely resented.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I don't think it's really sunk in yet just how screwed we are in Teeside for example

A lot of that is down to Houchen though, fortunately people like him aren't two a penny in the Tories.

And this is one part of the country (and I mean Teesside specifically not the wider North East) where local Labour parties have a spectacularly horrible image way worse than that of the national party at its lowest ebbs.

Yes, and they have been the "establishment" locally in a way that is widely resented.

What specificaly has caused this resentment ? any particular policy or fiasco or something ?

[Torrain]

Was there any particular reason for this ? Seems odd given that the libdem don't seem aligned to evangelicals on any particular issue and the electoral behaviour of their American brethren

Christian socialism (largely decried in the US evangelical movement, by figures such as Beni Johnson), as a direct response to the call to action in the Sermon on the Mount is not uncommon. The calls to feed the poor, house the homeless etc in Matthew 5-7 are often cited if you ask a left-leaning Christian why they vote the way they do.

Evangelical culture just never became dependent on opposition to abortion in the way is has in the US, and the absense of a clear voting bloc (as they split between the major parties), has prevented politicization of them in the same way.

But both Abortion and LGBT rights were both issues the liberals seemed to lie on the left of the main parties in terms of parlimentary legislation.

Abortion has never been rallying point in elections here - while there are a handful of vocally anti-abortion/pro-life Conservative MPs, they've never made overcoming existing legislation a priority. Abortion in the UK is governed by the Abortion Act of 1967 (slightly modified by further legislation in 1990 and 2008), and is thus a matter purely for Parliament, rather than the courts. The fact that the Thatcher government never touched the Act, means that there's no figurehead for a UK anti-abortion movement, and the Act is broadly viewed as settled law. That means that change would need a significant anti-abortion majority in the House, which has never existed.

You've also got to understand that we never really had a pitched fight over same-sex marriage in this country (so there was no time, or impetus to really rally the churches against it). A Conservative PM essentially just introduced the legislation during the middle of a parliament when it became politically viable, and set up a largely free vote on the matter. This allowed him to claim a measure of credit for it passing, even though Labour and the Lib Dems provided the votes to overcome the split between the socially liberal and conservative factions within the Conservative Party.

In my experience, many social conservatives vent/grumble privately (no judgement - just an observation, having heard several of these), but are too invested in other political causes to change their voting patterns. Think of it as the inverse or perhaps a corollary to the reluctant Trump-voting evangelical ("I don't like his attitude, but he'll protect the unborn"), essentially saying something like "I may not agree on the redefinition of marriage, but I care too much about the EU/NHS funding/immigration reform/blocking the *insert other party* candidate etc, to switch to another party."

[Conservatopia]

In my experience, many social conservatives vent/grumble privately (no judgement - just an observation, having heard several of these), but are too invested in other political causes to change their voting patterns. Think of it as the inverse or perhaps a corollary to the reluctant Trump-voting evangelical ("I don't like his attitude, but he'll protect the unborn"), essentially saying something like "I may not agree on the redefinition of marriage, but I care too much about the EU/NHS funding/immigration reform/blocking the *insert other party* candidate etc, to switch to another party."

Can't emphasize this enough.  FPTP means there's no point voting for, for example, the CPA, and there's no point voting Labour because they also supported SSM.  Besides, many conservatives' MPs voted against those things when they came up.  Mine did for example.  So therefore social conservatives don't bother changing their voting patterns because ultimately there's no point and it doesn't matter.

[Blair]

People sometimes overlook as well that a lot of MPs had split voting records on the issues of abortion & homosexuality in the 1960s.

There was an abortion debate where Norman St John-Stevas (who was gay) was attacked for his anti-abortion views by Andrew Faulds on the grounds that St John-Stevas did ''not the capacity to put a bun in anybody's oven".

[CumbrianLefty]

Times front page today is a sight, they're going from "soft" Orbanisation to the hard stuff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you're comparing the politics of abortion (or similar issues) in Britain and the United States then it's an error to assume that the situation in America is the norm and that it is the state of play in Britain that must be explained. On the contrary: what happened here is what happened in most other countries, which is that a pragmatic social compromise was eventually reached on what will always be a difficult issue, one that did not (and does not) exactly please anyone, but which largely takes the heat out of the matter and turns it into a matter of technicalities and regulation. On this particular issue the compromise reached in Britain is actually a little different to most other European countries (essentially abortion is legal for a longer period into the pregnancy, but there is no on-demand access to it) but the general framework is recognisable across the board. So the real question is why this did not happen in America and (perhaps) what this curious failure says about the American political system and its functionality.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I do think the legalisation of same-sex marriage is an underrated factor in the breakthrough of UKIP in 2012-13. Especially among activists it was it was the first big driver of Conservative defections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it out of question for Sir Peter Bottomley to face electoral difficulties in the foreseeable future?

[Blair]

This is awful.

Reports that emails were ignored, staff couldn’t access computers due to crap IT resulting from DFID merger, Raab being pedantic over email formatting and the dogs and staff given special treatment- while thousands who served the U.K. were ignored.

Absolutely damning- Raab should have been sacked but frankly the FCO is a joke. God knows how they’ll do if Russia invades Ukraine.

Afghanistan: Foreign Office chaotic during Kabul evacuation - whistleblower https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59549868

[Zinneke]

We still have Tory old boys scuttling around Brussels as "foreign policy" experts in between pints, affirming that Europe couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery in terms of these kind of operations...well look how your party have turned the UK'S organisational prowess into a laughing stock.