UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

From what I’m hearing - we might finally get a cabinet reshuffle today.
Laura Kuennsberg is making veiled references on Twitter, Raab and Truss have cancelled events at CCHQ, and Labour MPs like Dr Allin-Khan are attacking it as a distraction from parliamentary debate over social care reform. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1438083241395773441

https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1438076451257978883

[CumbrianLefty]

Mr Tony's reputation is artificially depressed because of his embarrassing post-premiership antics and will rise quite a bit in the future (he'll move firmly into the Lloyd George/Wilson/Thatcher category), but the main reason why the process is so slow is that he cannot help but open his mouth every thirty seconds...

It seems as though Tony Blair in retirement has decided to become the caricature his left-wing critics portrayed him as.

He is a center-left man.

Was.

[Blair]

A Labour MP use to call colleagues from a withheld number on reshuffle day to see how quickly they answered.

Westminster goes potty on days like this- see below

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1438122080378179595

[YL]

Gavin Williamson out from Education as expected.  It's not clear whether he's going anywhere else yet, but maybe he isn't.  There was a rumour earlier that he might get Northern Ireland <shudders>

[Torrain]

Gavin Williamson out from Education as expected.  It's not clear whether he's going anywhere else yet, but maybe he isn't.  There was a rumour earlier that he might get Northern Ireland <shudders>

Oof. I must say, I really dislike Johnson's use of the NI Office as career-ending weapon. He clearly used it as a punishment for Brandon Lewis, with whom he's long feuded. Even worse, he removed Julian Smith, the first competent Secretary in that post for quite some time.

Sure, it's a poisoned chalice of a political appointment, but the sheer infamy of the office is frustrating. I've family in County Down, and a lot of the guys over there just feel patronised by the political posturing that's done with the NI Office.

[Torrain]

Robert Buckland has left the government, after two years in post.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1438126819396497420

[Blair]

This is a chance to tell my favourite story which is that it was always rumoured that Angela Eagle was only sacked as a junior minister in the 2000s because the post-it note with her name on it fell off the whiteboard in Downing Street and they forgot she existed.

[Torrain]

Speculation on the BBC seems to be as follows:

• Dominic Raab demoted, possibly to Justice or a similar mid-tier cabinet post - unclear whether he will retain the title of First Secretary of State
• Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary Robert Jenrick looks to be on the way out
• Conservative Party co-Chair Amanda Milling looks to be on the outs
• Kemi Badenoch (Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury) rumoured to be up for promotion
• Priti Patel noted to be looking grim, but not clear what her fate is yet

Edit - also discussion about Johnson addressing concerns about a lack of gender-balance and regional-diversity in the cabinet.

[Continential]

Speculation on the BBC seems to be as follows:

• Priti Patel noted to be looking grim, but not clear what her fate is yet

Could there be a leadership coup if she gets demoted?

[Torrain]

Speculation on the BBC seems to be as follows:

• Priti Patel noted to be looking grim, but not clear what her fate is yet

Could there be a leadership coup if she gets demoted?

I doubt it - I've never gotten the impression that Patel controls enough support to overthrow Johnson. I'm a little detached, up here in Scotland, but I firmly believe that Rishi Sunak remains a far greater threat to Johnson.

I think the bullying scandal, combined with her personal unpopularity killed any chance of a Patel premiership. On the otherhand, if I had to put money on the cabinet member who would succeed Johnson, I'd probably go with Sunak, who helped set up the furlough scheme and isn't as disliked as Raab (seen in many corners as incompetent) or Patel (who has become caricatured in the same manner as Thatcher, as a heartless right-winger).

[Torrain]

Jenrick officially out.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1438133539111854082

[Torrain]

It's also worth noting that, following the sacking of Buckland, Oliver Dowden (Secretary of Culture, Media and Sport) is the only MP who supported Remain in 2016 to still be in the cabinet.

[Blair]

Yes this looks to be a clear out of those who backed Johnson in 2019 for the simple reason he would win; although both Williamson and Jenrick should have been sacked last year.

[Blair]

New Labour had problems created by unsackable Ministers- it means people get sacked to create jobs for them and each reshuffle creates more problems.

[Torrain]

New Labour had problems created by unsackable Ministers- it means people get sacked to create jobs for them and each reshuffle creates more problems.

Yeah - that appears to be what happened to Buckland (who was broadly popular within Government), being fired to provide a new job for Raab, who Johnson wants to demote.

I'm just nervous about who will replace him as Foreign Secretary, given that the two names in discussion are Gove and Truss. Neither of whom I trust with one of the great offices of state.

[beesley]

Speculation on the BBC seems to be as follows:

• Priti Patel noted to be looking grim, but not clear what her fate is yet

Could there be a leadership coup if she gets demoted?

I doubt it - I've never gotten the impression that Patel controls enough support to overthrow Johnson. I'm a little detached, up here in Scotland, but I firmly believe that Rishi Sunak remains a far greater threat to Johnson.

I think the bullying scandal, combined with her personal unpopularity killed any chance of a Patel premiership. On the otherhand, if I had to put money on the cabinet member who would succeed Johnson, I'd probably go with Sunak, who helped set up the furlough scheme and isn't as disliked as Raab (seen in many corners as incompetent) or Patel (who has become caricatured in the same manner as Thatcher, as a heartless right-winger).

I'd agree - Patel is very much a 'darling' (as the press would say) of a particular subsection of the Tory membership. You might also argue that Sunak hasn't had to own his policies or actions in such a self-incri given that his most unpopular or most controversial actions are usually characterised as government policies rather than personal ineptitude.

[Torrain]

Speculation on the BBC seems to be as follows:

• Priti Patel noted to be looking grim, but not clear what her fate is yet

Could there be a leadership coup if she gets demoted?

I doubt it - I've never gotten the impression that Patel controls enough support to overthrow Johnson. I'm a little detached, up here in Scotland, but I firmly believe that Rishi Sunak remains a far greater threat to Johnson.

I think the bullying scandal, combined with her personal unpopularity killed any chance of a Patel premiership. On the otherhand, if I had to put money on the cabinet member who would succeed Johnson, I'd probably go with Sunak, who helped set up the furlough scheme and isn't as disliked as Raab (seen in many corners as incompetent) or Patel (who has become caricatured in the same manner as Thatcher, as a heartless right-winger).

I'd agree - Patel is very much a 'darling' (as the press would say) of a particular subsection of the Tory membership. You might also argue that Sunak hasn't had to own his policies or actions in such a self-incri given that his most unpopular or most controversial actions are usually characterised as government policies rather than personal ineptitude.

Yeah - I agree.

Patel has long-held very public, and controversial views on issues like the death penalty and immigration- so when the Home Office carries out a less-popular set of policies, it seems to be viewed as her personal mandate. She's got her fans, but they're a small group of loud individuals, rather than a crowd.

And conversely, Sunak appears to be able to evade scrutiny for Treasury screw-ups, but take credit for more popular/populist policies like the furlough scheme and pandemic pay-out schemes for businesses.

I wonder whether that's partly due to how he entered office. Javid resigned as Chancellor when it became apparent Johnson and Cummings wanted more control over the Treasury. Sunak taking the job was a tacit admission he was ok with slightly less power in the position - maybe that gives him political cover to blame No. 10 for foisting less effective/popular policies on him.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1438145142049935369

Worth noting that Raab was just First Secretary of State before (in addition to Foreign Secretary). He's been given Deputy PM today as a courtesy title - doesn't really mean much in actuality.

[Blair]

I wouldn’t be surprised to wake up to find out he’s an Archbishop.

[Torrain]

Amanda Milling officially out as Tory Party Co-Chairman.
Rishi Sunak retained as Chancellor.

Liz Truss has entered No. 10, presumably for a promotion, possibly even for Foreign Secretary

I could link to the tweets, but I've probably cluttered up the thread enough as it is, so  I'll just drop a link to Laura Kuensberg's twitter account and the BBC News live-stream instead.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcnews

[Torrain]

BIG NEWS - Priti Patel retained as Home Secretary

[Torrain]

Oliver Dowden, Culture Secretary, broadly liked within the party, and last Cabinet member to support Remain in 2016, has been called into Downing Street - seems like he's going to be tapped for one of the vacant posts - a viable candidate for Education Secretary.

Speculation is that:
Dowden gets Education
Gove gets Housing, Community and Local Government
Kemi Babenoch gets Culture, Media and Sport

Still being worked out though.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1438154617162981378

[Gary JG]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1438154617162981378

One incompetent lightweight replaces another. Weak leaders like Johnson do not approve of strong subordinates.

As with most reshuffles, the general public will probably have little or no idea who the people changing posts are.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mr Tony's reputation is artificially depressed because of his embarrassing post-premiership antics and will rise quite a bit in the future (he'll move firmly into the Lloyd George/Wilson/Thatcher category), but the main reason why the process is so slow is that he cannot help but open his mouth every thirty seconds...

Copium's a hell of a drug.

I'm hardly a Blairite, so I don't see how that works.

Anyway, what I mean is that at present there's a huge disconnect between public opinion of the domestic legacy of the Blair government (generally very popular) and public opinion of the man himself (pretty low). Over the longer term there's more or less no way that this will hold and, given that it is unlikely that the controversies about him and his time in office will vanish, it's likely that he will be seen as a complicated figure whose tenure at the top was capital 'i' Important, combining major positives with assorted negatives and ethical question marks. Wilson and Lloyd George in particular are useful points of comparison there - especially as both had honours related scandals on their watch!