UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that latter point shows how this sort of speculation is a mug's game.

(December 2020 - the days when Starmer actually led Johnson as "best PM" in [some] polls!)

[LabourJersey]

There really need to be some analysis as to why Starmer has lost so much ground since December. Is it all due to the success of the vaccine roll out? Some gaffes that I'm not aware of? It just seems so bizarre for a Leader to slide down on the polls that quickly

[CumbrianLefty]

Definite mistakes were made even before the pants soiling en masse at the weekend.

But maybe the central problem was that an appeal centred almost entirely on "competence" showed its limitations once the government (finally) showed some on the most important issue of the day.

[cp]

There really need to be some analysis as to why Starmer has lost so much ground since December. Is it all due to the success of the vaccine roll out? Some gaffes that I'm not aware of? It just seems so bizarre for a Leader to slide down on the polls that quickly

I've seen a few deep dive polling/demographic analyses on twitter over the past few weeks and the gist of them are:

1. Labour's lost a lot of previous non-voters (i.e. voters who don't show up every election). The people who delivered near-success in 2017, were shamed/demoralized into staying home in 2019, and came back for Starmer's post-installation bump have gone back to being non-respondents.

2. Starmer's made no impression personally. At least half of this is because he's competing with COVID/vaccines for headlines, but the other half is the ineffectiveness of his 'forensic' (lol) approach to criticizing Johnson and the Tories.

3. Related to point 1, a non-negligible slice of erstwhile Labour supporters are now supporting the Greens, SNP, PC, or 'other'. This is also the driver behind Starmer's even more precipitous fall in personal approval ratings.

The counterargument about Starmer's woes being about the vaccine bump lose integrity once you realize the Tory's own poll numbers are still pretty strong and have been throughout the period of the Starmer/Labour decline of the past 6 months.

[YL]

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1392208454853484551

Shows how strong the age polarisation has got in the last few years.

[afleitch]

(Sultry singing voice)

'Whatever boomers want...boomers get.'

Demographically most western nations have an economic and political bottleneck. What's made the last decade more difficult is the very online 'radicalisation' of much of the boomer anglosphere leading to a faster and harder swing to the right than 'just getting older'. Though in the same breath it's not the case in countries where they might be the ones who save us from Le Pen next time round.

[Blair]

Have we heard from the various weird FBPE twitter people about this yet?

https://www.cityam.com/michel-barnier-calls-for-halt-to-immigration-across-europe/

[LabourJersey]

(Sultry singing voice)

'Whatever boomers want...boomers get.'

Demographically most western nations have an economic and political bottleneck. What's made the last decade more difficult is the very online 'radicalisation' of much of the boomer anglosphere leading to a faster and harder swing to the right than 'just getting older'. Though in the same breath it's not the case in countries where they might be the ones who save us from Le Pen next time round.

I think one of the most underrated developments in the current state of politics is the point in early 2010s when middle aged and older people started using social media/when less tech savvy older people got smartphones.

[Cassius]

Have we heard from the various weird FBPE twitter people about this yet?

https://www.cityam.com/michel-barnier-calls-for-halt-to-immigration-across-europe/

I mean for a lot of those types ‘the globe’ ends at the straights of Gibraltar in the south and the Oder-Neisse line in the east so I imagine they wouldn’t be hugely concerned.

As for the so-called ‘online radicalisation’ of the ‘boomers’, Ofcom did a study back in 2018 which found that the main news platform used by over-65’s (at that point most of the ‘boomer’ generation) was TV (at 94%), followed by the papers (60%), Radio (54%) and finally the internet at just 38% usage. The two most popular individual news sources were the BBC (82%) and ITV (53%), whilst Facebook and Twitter were used by just 12% and 2% respectively. Of course, no study’s perfect but it makes a fair degree of anecdotal sense. Older people have always been a relatively Tory leaning demographic (even in 1997, according to Mori, Labour only led by a measly 4 points), it’s just that Labour have been... particularly off putting at the last couple of elections given their leadership and the general image of the party. But if old people are being ‘radicalised’ by anything it’s what they read in the paper or see on the BBC (as people on the left never tire of pointing out!), not by anything online, at least for the most part.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is a case for saying a *minority* of older voters have been radicalised by Facebook especially.

[Cassius]

There is a case for saying a *minority* of older voters have been radicalised by Facebook especially.

I’m aware that some research has been done on this in America (haven’t read it unfortunately), so I’d be interested to know if work has been done on it in the UK. You’re probably right that a minority have been ‘radicalised’ by social media (although anecdotally I’d say this is much more prevalent amongst people of my generation, on both sides of the spectrum), but not enough to make an appreciable difference to the overall voting totals. Of course, you also have to put a lot of trust in polling done by YouGov and Mori on voter demographics, which I’m increasingly sceptical of.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, you also have to put a lot of trust in polling done by YouGov and Mori on voter demographics, which I’m increasingly sceptical of.

The hideous reality is that so much of British politics is driven by bad and questionable data...

[afleitch]

Major action against the Home Office in Glasgow today (this is five minutes from me)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-57100259

Disgraceful action by the Home Office, making dawn raids on Eid, when the cities politicians were in Edinburgh and they took ages to take the calls from Scottish ministers. Over 100 police involved in what was at all times a peaceful protest. Home Office left them high and dry too.

[CumbrianLefty]

There really need to be some analysis as to why Starmer has lost so much ground since December. Is it all due to the success of the vaccine roll out? Some gaffes that I'm not aware of? It just seems so bizarre for a Leader to slide down on the polls that quickly

There are definite Martin Schulz vibes around him at present.

[Conservatopia]

Edwin Poots beat Jeffrey Donaldson for the DUP leadership.  This was a surprise (at least to Camp Donaldson) and the result was extremely close.

Poots will not become First Minister but it isn't immediately clear who will.  Foster may go the House of Lords.

Paula Bradley was elected deputy.  She is from the (relatively) liberal wing of the party.

[Silent Hunter]

Poots makes Paisley look pleasant and that's saying something.

[Blair]

The new Polling for Keir is getting close to the yikes category

[cp]

The new Polling for Keir is getting close to the yikes category

We're only 35 points away from being 20 points ahead ...

[Conservatopia]

To state the obvious if Labour lose Batley (still unlikely) then Keir is in deep trouble.

[gerritcole]

If labour loses 2024 is sir Keir in trouble?

[Silent Hunter]

If labour loses 2024 is sir Keir in trouble?

He's likely no longer leader if that happens.

[gerritcole]

If labour loses 2024 is sir Keir in trouble?

He's likely no longer leader if that happens.

Corbyn got two elections tho

[Silent Hunter]

If labour loses 2024 is sir Keir in trouble?

He's likely no longer leader if that happens.

Corbyn got two elections tho

He did much better than expected in 2017.

[LabourJersey]

To state the obvious if Labour lose Batley (still unlikely) then Keir is in deep trouble.

I think Keir is already in deep trouble at this point...

[cp]

To state the obvious if Labour lose Batley (still unlikely) then Keir is in deep trouble.

I think Keir is already in deep trouble at this point...

Sort of. The bubble has popped around his initial pitch (unprovocatively competent; not Corbyn = election winner), but he's fairly well ensconced. His lieutenants on the NEC, the GS office, and various constituencies are all still in place and maintaining discipline. There's no obvious challenger trying to wrest control or gather strength, though the witlessness of Keir's team over the past week has created the conditions for Rayner to do so unapologetically if she wishes.

The 'trouble' that he's in is that the past week revealed he doesn't really have any deep well of support(ers) in the party. The Blairites panned him, the left panned him, and the centre-soft left shrugged their shoulders. If he doesn't have charisma to attract people or a movement/organization like Momentum to drive mass support, it's only a matter of time - and successive losses - before people start to ask, in effect, 'so, what good are you anyway?'.

Also, I'm very bearish about Batley. No better than 50/50 chance here. We'll find out more when we know the candidates.