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  2020 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  McSally Underperforming Trump, Again
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Author Topic: McSally Underperforming Trump, Again  (Read 953 times)
TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« on: December 11, 2019, 12:24:17 pm »

Trails Kelly 47-44

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4mbv7c2auwqck54/Senate_Report.pdf?dl=0
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2019, 12:25:35 pm »

Yep, the 2016 win by McCain is not in the cards for McSally
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2016
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2019, 12:42:10 pm »

You little Democrats may have to consider something:

The Arizona Senate Race is a MUST-WIN Race for you IF you want to take back the Senate in 2020!

Any loss here and Republicans will retain the Senate.

Kyrsten Sinema won in 2018 because she ran to the Middle and cast herself as an Independent.

I don't see the same thing happening with this liberal Hawk Mark Kelly.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2019, 12:42:24 pm »

McSally is a garbage candidate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2019, 12:44:37 pm »

McSally is damaged goods, news at 11. Interesting that Trump is underwater and the generic congressional ballot is tied 44-44. All indications are Arizona will be a swing state in 2020.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2019, 12:49:27 pm »

Yeah, a Trump-Kelly win is looking likely at this point. McSally is an incredibly weak incumbent.
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2016
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2019, 12:49:56 pm »

McSally is damaged goods, news at 11. Interesting that Trump is underwater and the generic congressional ballot is tied 44-44. All indications are Arizona will be a swing state in 2020.
Democrats like you still don't get it! Any possible Democratic Majority after the 2020 Elections include AZ. You lose here, your chances are immediatedly evaporating.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2019, 01:06:21 pm »

McSally is damaged goods, news at 11. Interesting that Trump is underwater and the generic congressional ballot is tied 44-44. All indications are Arizona will be a swing state in 2020.
Democrats like you still don't get it! Any possible Democratic Majority after the 2020 Elections include AZ. You lose here, your chances are immediatedly evaporating.
We get it. Democrats need Arizona. They might just get it. You better hope they do, too because a mid term will probably see Ducey replaced by a Democrat. The worst case scenario for AZ GOP would be for McSally to underperform an otherwise good night for Republicans.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2019, 01:52:20 pm »

She's down by 3 in that trash OH PI poll. Not good!
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bronz4141
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2019, 02:02:47 pm »

McSally is a good Defense Secretary for a future Republican cabinet, not as a Senator.

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DTC
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2019, 02:04:34 pm »

You little Democrats may have to consider something:

The Arizona Senate Race is a MUST-WIN Race for you IF you want to take back the Senate in 2020!

Any loss here and Republicans will retain the Senate.

Kyrsten Sinema won in 2018 because she ran to the Middle and cast herself as an Independent.

I don't see the same thing happening with this liberal Hawk Mark Kelly.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/arizona/senate

Electorate in 2018 was 38% Hillary 50% Trump. Hispanic turnout dropped off a cliff in 2018. Sienma won 11% of Trump voters.

Presumably the 2020 electorate will not be +12 Trump given that Trump only won by 3.5%
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2019, 02:11:46 pm »

You little Democrats may have to consider something:

The Arizona Senate Race is a MUST-WIN Race for you IF you want to take back the Senate in 2020!

Any loss here and Republicans will retain the Senate.

Kyrsten Sinema won in 2018 because she ran to the Middle and cast herself as an Independent.

I don't see the same thing happening with this liberal Hawk Mark Kelly.

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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2019, 02:38:05 pm »

You little Democrats may have to consider something:

The Arizona Senate Race is a MUST-WIN Race for you IF you want to take back the Senate in 2020!

Any loss here and Republicans will retain the Senate.

Kyrsten Sinema won in 2018 because she ran to the Middle and cast herself as an Independent.

I don't see the same thing happening with this liberal Hawk Mark Kelly.

Is this how consevatives feel when they drink liberal tears? Because I had a lot of satisfaction reading this Boomer post
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2019, 03:29:02 pm »

McSally is a good Defense Secretary for a future Republican cabinet, not as a Senator.



Maybe Trump will consider if he wins and she loses?
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Make America Malarkey Free Again
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« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2019, 04:30:10 pm »

Yeah, there's nothing "bold" or "unreasonable" about predicting that Trump will narrowly win AZ while McSally narrowly loses.
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#Bidemings2020
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« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2019, 07:21:26 pm »

You little Democrats may have to consider something:

The Arizona Senate Race is a MUST-WIN Race for you IF you want to take back the Senate in 2020!

Any loss here and Republicans will retain the Senate.

Kyrsten Sinema won in 2018 because she ran to the Middle and cast herself as an Independent.

I don't see the same thing happening with this liberal Hawk Mark Kelly.

I didn't know we had a fourth-grader on this site...
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jimmie
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2019, 07:32:24 pm »

Remember there are people who strongly believe that because 2016 had every state vote the same for Senate and President that going forward that will happen in every single election until the end of time.

Wouldn't be surprised to see:

AZ President GOP and AZ Sen Dem.
North Carolina could see GOP Pres/Dem Sen or the exact opposite.
Michigan being D Pres/GOP Senate is possible. More possible than people would want to admit.
Maine Dem Pres/GOP Senate is probable.

Arizona did see some statewide breakthrough for Democrats last year unlike the Democratic trending states of Georgia and Texas.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2019, 08:39:20 pm »

MI and ME polling has always has had GOP bias in them. EPIC polls always had a GOP bias; consequently,  Peter's narrowly wins
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bronz4141
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2019, 09:09:01 pm »

McSally is a good Defense Secretary for a future Republican cabinet, not as a Senator.



Maybe Trump will consider if he wins and she loses?

Maybe.
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PrisonerOfHope
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« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2019, 11:33:32 pm »

McSally is damaged goods, news at 11. Interesting that Trump is underwater and the generic congressional ballot is tied 44-44. All indications are Arizona will be a swing state in 2020.
Democrats like you still don't get it! Any possible Democratic Majority after the 2020 Elections include AZ. You lose here, your chances are immediatedly evaporating.

AZ looks like a great pick-up opportunity for BOTH Senate & WH, but NOT vital.  So many other opportunities: CO, NC, ME, GA(2), IA, even KY & KS.  WH & +3 Net = control. 
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2019, 11:57:33 pm »

McSally is damaged goods, news at 11. Interesting that Trump is underwater and the generic congressional ballot is tied 44-44. All indications are Arizona will be a swing state in 2020.
Democrats like you still don't get it! Any possible Democratic Majority after the 2020 Elections include AZ. You lose here, your chances are immediatedly evaporating.

AZ looks like a great pick-up opportunity for BOTH Senate & WH, but NOT vital.  So many other opportunities: CO, NC, ME, GA(2), IA, even KY & KS.  WH & +3 Net = control. 

The fact that you're listing GA, IA, KY, and KS as part of your "path to a majority" shows just how vital it is, lol.
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money printer go brrr
peenie_weenie
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« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2019, 12:01:09 am »

You little Democrats may have to consider something:

The Arizona Senate Race is a MUST-WIN Race for you IF you want to take back the Senate in 2020!

Any loss here and Republicans will retain the Senate.

Kyrsten Sinema won in 2018 because she ran to the Middle and cast herself as an Independent.

I don't see the same thing happening with this liberal Hawk Mark Kelly.

Gotta love my man saying that he can't see Mark Kelly replicating Sinema's win in a thread for a poll which shows Kelly at the exact same margin of victory over McSally that Sinema had.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #22 on: December 14, 2019, 04:00:20 pm »

Kelly is a Bill Nelson Dem, and will be the next Senator from AZ
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: December 16, 2019, 06:57:32 am »

Yeah, a Trump-Kelly win is looking likely at this point. McSally is an incredibly weak incumbent.

Trump win in AZ isn't looking likely. It's a total tossup at this point.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: December 16, 2019, 03:38:06 pm »

Remember there are people who strongly believe that because 2016 had every state vote the same for Senate and President that going forward that will happen in every single election until the end of time.

Yeah, this is such a hilariously bad take. Even in 2016, Republicans almost lost a Senate race in a Trump +18 state and almost certainly would have held NH if it had not been for the conservative Independent candidate (Aaron Day) who received 2.4% of the vote.
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