2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[Sol]

Is Rutherford trending D? I’d like to know more.

It did in 2016. Rutherford is also the only suburban Nashville county with non-neglible Democratic communities; LaVergne and Smyrna are increasingly extensions of the very diverse Southeast side of Nashville, while MTSU in Murfreesboro is the second largest college in the state. It'd be the most likely to flip of Nashville's collar counties--Bredesen came close in 2018.

[Sol]

Cooper is probably a little more prepared for being drawn out than most congressmembers; he used to represent a bunch of rural turf to the east of Nashville, for example. That doesn't really matter now in terms of his electoral performance or anything but I think that Cooper has probably been preparing for this for a while.

[Sol]

Cooper is probably a little more prepared for being drawn out than most congressmembers; he used to represent a bunch of rural turf to the east of Nashville, for example. That doesn't really matter now in terms of his electoral performance or anything but I think that Cooper has probably been preparing for this for a while.

If Nashville is cracked, TN-5 will be safe R.  Even in a blue wave Cooper wouldn't survive a Trump+25 district, but in a red wave he'd be lucky to keep the race within 20 points.

I didn't mean in terms of ability to win, I meant politically--i.e. amassing people who would oppose cracking Nashville.

[Sol]

Cooper is probably a little more prepared for being drawn out than most congressmembers; he used to represent a bunch of rural turf to the east of Nashville, for example. That doesn't really matter now in terms of his electoral performance or anything but I think that Cooper has probably been preparing for this for a while.

If Nashville is cracked, TN-5 will be safe R.  Even in a blue wave Cooper wouldn't survive a Trump+25 district, but in a red wave he'd be lucky to keep the race within 20 points.

I didn't mean in terms of ability to win, I meant politically--i.e. amassing people who would oppose cracking Nashville.

the rural Dems are basically all gone now.

Did you read my post?

[Sol]

The potential cracking of Nashville might have quite serious implications for the TN Dems beyond merely losing a congressional seat. Nashville Democrats (traditionally white and moderate) have long been at the heart of the state’s Democratic establishment, but now they might have no opportunity for higher office beyond mayor/state legislator.

Nah, agraian West Tennessee and Memphis have always been the epicenter for TN Democrats.  Long-time Speakers of the TN House Ned McWherter (1973-87) and Jimmy Naifeh (1991-2009) were West TN Democrats.

Politics in Nashville has always had a stronger "professional" constituency tilted towards high-earning MBAs, MDs and JDs at the expense of business owners, farmers and other good ol' boys.  In the previous alignment, this made White Nashvillians the base of the TN-GOP (similar to how Jefferson County, AL or Fulton/Cobb County, GA Whites were once the base of the GOP in their respective states, too.)  It's no coincidence that Bill Frist, Fred Thompson, Beth Harwell and Bill Lee all hail from Nashville.      

Interesting; I guess you’re right. My perception (correct me if I’m wrong) was that rural West TN was more plantation South, while rural Middle TN had stronger New Deal/TVA Democratic roots.

I would have also thought that the TNGOP base until quite recently was more the relatively moderate Republicans from the ancestral heartland in East TN (Baker, Alexander, Haslam and Corker), and was actually less dominated by right-wing suburbanites than many other Southern states.

There have always really been two wings- the East Tennessee Establishment Republicans (Haslam, Corker, Alexander, Randy Boyd, etc.) who are relatively non-ideological and the Suburban Nashville Conservatives (Blackburn, Lee, Frist, Thompson, etc.).  That's independent of the growing rise of Trumpism.  Also, West Tennessee tends to go more for the "good ol' boys", more in line with East Tennessee.  Look at the Sethi vs. Hagerty primary map.  While both were from Middle Tennessee, it's clear which one was trying to be the Suburban Nashville Conservative and which one was trying to be the Good Ol' Tennessee Republican.

why are applacian republicans more moderate than suburban republicans?

Not very knowledgeable about Tennessee, but I imagine it's a result of historical patterns in voting.

Most of East Tennessee was ancestrally Republican, in much the same way that much of the rest of the South was ancestrally Democratic. This affiliation was based on historic opposition to secession, etc. rather than a strong ideological identification.

Meanwhile, as the Republican party began to grow in suburban Nashville in the back half of the 20th century, as elsewhere in the sunbelt its appeal was a strongly ideological one--a heady mix of anti-communism, fiscal conservatism, and social conservatism fueled by new evangelical movements.

As a result, I suspect the East Tennessee republicans were less strongly invested in ideological conservatism than their urban and suburban counterparts, so they were probably more willing to cut deals with Democrats, etc.

[Sol]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

Let me guess: you think Tennessee is only a conservative state because of abortion?

Not statewide, but I think the Nashville suburbs go the way of the Austin suburbs the moment the issue is taken off the table, with a very fast statewide shift back to 55R/45D or so.

I expect a similar federal shift from the JBE voters in the NOLA suburbs and the Andy Beshear voters in the Kentucky suburbs.  Abortion is the #1 thing keeping culturally Southern suburbs from going Fairfax.

See, but this is the thing--abortion will still be a political issue post Roe! If anything it will be a more contentious issue.

[Sol]

The most interesting part of the story is that he said "2 or 3" districts.  Most 8-1 maps I've seen used 4 districts for Nashville.  That almost makes me wonder if they're trying some sort of 7-1-1map, if they are not buying 2016-20 trends continuing,, or if Sexton just mispoke.

Cooper is very much positioned on the right of the party and has experience in running in rural areas--7-1-1 is no guarantee of a Republican pickup, even in 2022.

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.

NW Rutherford is definitely the best CoI or whatever but doing that basically forces splitting Smyrna.

[Sol]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.

I only want two split counties, meaning that one county in Metro Nashville has to be split in two. I can transfer the double chop to Robertson if need be.

IMO it's better to split two counties once than split one county between three districts, which totally dilutes that place's voice.