2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[Oryxslayer]

Tennessee

The redistricting gods give with one hand, and they take with another. 2020 redistricting overall looks to be fairer and driven more by commissions than 2010. However, in a handful of states lines are set to get worse. Nowhere is this more relevant in Tennessee, where Nashville appears poised to lose its nice compact district. The transition of western Tennessee into a lockstep republican bastion leaves this island of blue vulnerable to a cutup.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History

Believe it or not, Tennessee redistricting in 2000 was a divided affair. The map from 1990-2000 was a purely dixiecratic affair. They drew a map that could maximize potential dixiecratic gains. In 2000, the Republicans had the governorship and dixiecrats had the state legislature without supermajorities. Working together, the map the two sides put together looks like a gerrymander in hindsight. It is not. Tennessee at the local level swung fairly easily thanks to GOP strength (since the civil war!) in the east and dixiecratic strength in the west. The map the two sides agreed to protected the democrats in the west, the republicans in the east, and left so supposed battlegrounds in the center. The 7th for instance was designed to take in as many western republicans as possible, so as to lock down the 8th and make the 4th competitive. Of course, Democrat Lincoln Davis would hold the 4th until 2010, making the map seem like a democratic gerrymander to preserve a diminishing dixiecratic base.

Tennessee Congressional Districts from 2000 to 2010, credit to Wikipedia

2010 swept aside the old dixiecratic partisan machines in Tennessee, just like the rest of the south. The republican wave did not care for the long moderate terms of their rural legislators, only urban Cooper and Cohen survived. The Republicans now held legislature and the governor’s office, granting them a trifecta and sole redistricting power. Immediately the question arose what the GOP was prepared to do with this new power. There were some halfhearted ideas about going after Cooper, but he was left unmolested. Instead, fearing a revival of the Dixiecrats, the GOP drew their seven districts to best accommodate and lock down the gains from 2010. Harsh lines were saved for the legislature where the Republicans moved aggressively to care away the dixiecratic holdouts.

Tennessee Congressional Districts since 2010, credit to Wikipedia

Since 2011

Nothing has happened, which is exactly what the GOP originally hoped. The seven GOP seats have cycled incumbents and the two blue seats have remained blue. As we all know, there never was a dixiecratic revival, instead western Tennessee just got more and more red. What were drawn as GOP lockdowns in 2010 gradually became GOP self-packs. When Democrats did try to pierce the state’s ruby hue in 2018, it ended up following the modern coalition breakdown of urban vs rural, rather than the old east vs west dichotomy. The transformation of Western Tennessee has also transformed the state GOP party, bringing it in line with the rest of the south. The old-school easterners have lost their firm grip on the party.

2021

Jim Cooper is the most vulnerable congressman to redistricting in the nation. His island of blue is surrounded by seats with way too many Republicans, and can easily be carved up. Even when considering Bresden’s inflated margins and Blackburn’s lackluster turnout, a Nashville carve-up can be done safely. This is the disadvantage of representing a partisan island, be it blue or red, in the center of your state. It’s incredibly easy to crave up said island since there are already a lot of districts reaching inwards towards the center. To get ever seat to Safe Republican levels where even Blackburn gets 10-point margins at minimum, a 4-way or 5-way cut is needed. However, that isn’t hard.

Hypothetical neat 4-way cut of Nashville, Bresden only wins TN-09 and comes close in no others

Tennessee actually has restrictions on how many counties can be cut between districts, however this only applies to the State Legislature. There are no restrictions preventing the destruction of Nashville. In contrast with KY-03 which now has Beshear’s authority standing in the way of an aggressive legislature, there is nothing protecting TN-05.

What’s Left to Decide

Nothing. Tennessee’s districts are not competitive and there are too many legislative seats either Safe R or not up for reelection. Tennessee lacks the ballot initiative for citizens to change redistricting law. Democrats have 0% chance at having any seat the table.

[Skill and Chance]

The 2002 redistricting in Tennessee really should count as a Dem map.  Tennessee has simple majority veto override, so the GOP governor was nearly irrelevant (and unlike NC and KY, the legislature also controls appointments to the state courts in TN, so there would be little concern over independent supervision coming from the courts).  Whatever concessions the TN GOP was offered, it would have been done with the knowledge that TN Dems ultimately had the power to do whatever they wanted, and the resulting map was anything but clean. 

Also, I do wonder if the east TN R's will want to split Chattanooga/Knoxville after Bredesen nearly broke even in those counties?  Would that compromise the GOP plan for a Nashville split?

[Frodo]

A little off topic, but could what happened in Tennessee happen within the next few years in Kentucky and West Virginia? 

[Oryxslayer]

A little off topic, but could what happened in Tennessee happen within the next few years in Kentucky and West Virginia?  

In want way? That question is rather vague.

[Skill and Chance]

A little off topic, but could what happened in Tennessee happen within the next few years in Kentucky and West Virginia?  

In want way? That question is rather vague.

A complete wipeout of state legislative Dems in Eastern KY/Southern WV?  I think it is only a matter of time.

The one (urban) Dem district left in KY is likely protected by the state constitution and the elected state supreme court that intervened in the 2011 redistricting. 

[lfromnj]

yeah Coopers screwed but I would like to note Cooper did better than Bredesen in 2018.

[Frodo]

A little off topic, but could what happened in Tennessee happen within the next few years in Kentucky and West Virginia?  

In want way? That question is rather vague.

I have been looking at the Tennessee legislature, and comparing the Democrats' share of seats there with their counterparts in Kentucky and West Virginia:

Tennessee Senate:

Republicans: 28
Democrats: 5

Tennessee House:

Republicans: 73
Democrats: 26
----------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky Senate:

Republicans: 29
Democrats: 9

Kentucky House:

Republicans: 61
Democrats: 39
----------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia Senate:

Republicans: 20
Democrats: 14

West Virginia House:

Republicans: 59
Democrats: 41

Now, Tennessee has more minorities than in Kentucky and West Virginia, and even there Democrats are virtually irrelevant as a political force, judging by their share of seats in the legislature.  Which leads me to think that once Kentucky and West Virginia Democrats lose their remaining rural, white working class supporters even at the state and local levels (they're already there in the Kentucky Senate) after redistricting, they will be just as irrelevant.  

Perhaps more so, given how much fewer African Americans and other minorities live in those states comparatively, giving them a much lower floor than in other southern states.        

[Skill and Chance]

Demographically, WV should be the most Republican state in the country and KY easily in the top 5 and arguably 2nd.  I would expect Republican dominance comparable to the Mormon states during George W. Bush's presidency is coming to WV and KY within the next decade.  The redistricting laws do meaningfully help rural Dems in KY though by keeping e.g. Elliott county intact.  There are almost as many Beshear/Republican as Bevin/Dem districts in the legislature now, but I expect most will be gerrymandered away in 2021 as they are almost all within large counties.  Beshear was probably the last gasp of the KY New Deal coalition.  The next R governor will get the message and pay the teachers better.

If anything, I expect TN Dems to go up from their current numbers over the 2020's due to Nashville (70% Bredesen, and not so easily gerrymandered away at the state legislative level), and signs they are finally breaking through in Knoxville and Chattanooga. 

[lfromnj]

A little off topic, but could what happened in Tennessee happen within the next few years in Kentucky and West Virginia?  

In want way? That question is rather vague.

I have been looking at the Tennessee legislature, and comparing the Democrats' share of seats there compared with their counterparts in Kentucky and West Virginia:

Tennessee Senate:

Republicans: 28
Democrats: 5

Tennessee House:

Republicans: 73
Democrats: 26
----------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky Senate:

Republicans: 29
Democrats: 6

Kentucky House:

Republicans: 61
Democrats: 39
----------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia Senate:

Republicans: 20
Democrats: 14

West Virginia House:

Republicans: 59
Democrats: 41

Now, Tennessee has more minorities than in Kentucky and West Virginia, and even there Democrats are virtually irrelevant as a political force, judging by their share of seats in the legislature.  Which leads me to think that once Kentucky and West Virginia Democrats lose their remaining rural, white working class supporters even at the state and local levels (they're already there in the Kentucky Senate) after redistricting, they will be just as irrelevant.  

Perhaps more so, given how much fewer African Americans and other minorities live in those states comparatively, giving them a much lower floor than in other southern states.        

KY ds have 9 not 6 seats in the senate

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Demographically, WV should be the most Republican state in the country and KY easily in the top 5 and arguably 2nd.  I would expect Republican dominance comparable to the Mormon states during George W. Bush's presidency is coming to WV and KY within the next decade.  The redistricting laws do meaningfully help rural Dems in KY though by keeping e.g. Elliott county intact.  There are almost as many Beshear/Republican as Bevin/Dem districts in the legislature now, but I expect most will be gerrymandered away in 2021 as they are almost all within large counties.  Beshear was probably the last gasp of the KY New Deal coalition.  The next R governor will get the message and pay the teachers better.

If anything, I expect TN Dems to go up from their current numbers over the 2020's due to Nashville (70% Bredesen, and not so easily gerrymandered away at the state legislative level), and signs they are finally breaking through in Knoxville and Chattanooga. 

Democrats already have every Davidson County district in the state House, but Republicans do have one state Senate district that was Romney-Clinton and is up for re-election in 2020.  The Romney-Clinton House district that covers much of the aforementioned Senate district (though both were very narrow Clinton wins) went Democratic 51-49 in 2018 when the Republican incumbent retired.  The incumbent is running in the Senate election, so I'd call it Tossup/Tilt R for 2020.

There's also a Romney-Trump district in Western and Northern Davidson County, but Republicans have never been able to break through there for some reason.

A lot of making a safe 8-1 map relies on how confident you are that Williamson and Rutherford Counties will stay Safe R.  2018 actually showed some fairly promising signs for Republicans in Williamson County (that I have detailed numerous times here), but Rutherford looked a little more concerning.  Still, that just means that you have to give a little more rural territory/slightly less urban territory to the Rutherford-based district Trump +25 to +30, so it's pretty safe.

It would be illegal because of the VRA, but it's even possible to draw a pretty safe 9-0 map if you get aggressive with both Nashville and Memphis.

[Skill and Chance]

Demographically, WV should be the most Republican state in the country and KY easily in the top 5 and arguably 2nd.  I would expect Republican dominance comparable to the Mormon states during George W. Bush's presidency is coming to WV and KY within the next decade.  The redistricting laws do meaningfully help rural Dems in KY though by keeping e.g. Elliott county intact.  There are almost as many Beshear/Republican as Bevin/Dem districts in the legislature now, but I expect most will be gerrymandered away in 2021 as they are almost all within large counties.  Beshear was probably the last gasp of the KY New Deal coalition.  The next R governor will get the message and pay the teachers better.

If anything, I expect TN Dems to go up from their current numbers over the 2020's due to Nashville (70% Bredesen, and not so easily gerrymandered away at the state legislative level), and signs they are finally breaking through in Knoxville and Chattanooga. 

Democrats already have every Davidson County district in the state House, but Republicans do have one state Senate district that was Romney-Clinton and is up for re-election in 2020.  The Romney-Clinton House district that covers much of the aforementioned Senate district (though both were very narrow Clinton wins) went Democratic 51-49 in 2018 when the Republican incumbent retired.  The incumbent is running in the Senate election, so I'd call it Tossup/Tilt R for 2020.

There's also a Romney-Trump district in Western and Northern Davidson County, but Republicans have never been able to break through there for some reason.

A lot of making a safe 8-1 map relies on how confident you are that Williamson and Rutherford Counties will stay Safe R.  2018 actually showed some fairly promising signs for Republicans in Williamson County (that I have detailed numerous times here), but Rutherford looked a little more concerning.  Still, that just means that you have to give a little more rural territory/slightly less urban territory to the Rutherford-based district Trump +25 to +30, so it's pretty safe.

It would be illegal because of the VRA, but it's even possible to draw a pretty safe 9-0 map if you get aggressive with both Nashville and Memphis.

Hmmm... I think the greater issue will be Fleischmann.  He is likely going to want all of blood red Bradley back in TN-03 after seeing Bredesen come within 2% in Hamilton.  I guess you just give TN-06 Rutherford then and send TN-04 into southern Nashville with part of Williamson to offset it? 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Demographically, WV should be the most Republican state in the country and KY easily in the top 5 and arguably 2nd.  I would expect Republican dominance comparable to the Mormon states during George W. Bush's presidency is coming to WV and KY within the next decade.  The redistricting laws do meaningfully help rural Dems in KY though by keeping e.g. Elliott county intact.  There are almost as many Beshear/Republican as Bevin/Dem districts in the legislature now, but I expect most will be gerrymandered away in 2021 as they are almost all within large counties.  Beshear was probably the last gasp of the KY New Deal coalition.  The next R governor will get the message and pay the teachers better.

If anything, I expect TN Dems to go up from their current numbers over the 2020's due to Nashville (70% Bredesen, and not so easily gerrymandered away at the state legislative level), and signs they are finally breaking through in Knoxville and Chattanooga. 

Democrats already have every Davidson County district in the state House, but Republicans do have one state Senate district that was Romney-Clinton and is up for re-election in 2020.  The Romney-Clinton House district that covers much of the aforementioned Senate district (though both were very narrow Clinton wins) went Democratic 51-49 in 2018 when the Republican incumbent retired.  The incumbent is running in the Senate election, so I'd call it Tossup/Tilt R for 2020.

There's also a Romney-Trump district in Western and Northern Davidson County, but Republicans have never been able to break through there for some reason.

A lot of making a safe 8-1 map relies on how confident you are that Williamson and Rutherford Counties will stay Safe R.  2018 actually showed some fairly promising signs for Republicans in Williamson County (that I have detailed numerous times here), but Rutherford looked a little more concerning.  Still, that just means that you have to give a little more rural territory/slightly less urban territory to the Rutherford-based district Trump +25 to +30, so it's pretty safe.

It would be illegal because of the VRA, but it's even possible to draw a pretty safe 9-0 map if you get aggressive with both Nashville and Memphis.

Hmmm... I think the greater issue will be Fleischmann.  He is likely going to want all of blood red Bradley back in TN-03 after seeing Bredesen come within 2% in Hamilton.  I guess you just give TN-06 Rutherford then and send TN-04 into southern Nashville with part of Williamson to offset it? 

The Southern tier of Davidson County is pretty Republican (i.e. even), so I tend to have less issues with my Williamson-based district than with a Rutherford-based one that has to go more into Democratic Southeastern Davidson County.  I've also thought about putting much of Williamson and Rutherford into a district.

I don't see Bradley as an issue.  You really don't have to change TN 1-3 much at all.  The difference would all come in re-arranging districts 4-7 to all take a little of Nashville.  Here's a map I made that could probably be tidied up a bit.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/36044b9b-be3e-49dd-a588-e151dae7c7a8

[OBD]

I wonder if GOP representatives will complain about having to take in parts of Nashville, but based on those PVIs Oryxslayer posted I doubt it.

[TML]

It seems like this is yet another state where there isn't much that can be done to please Democrats. According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it isn't really possible to create a third strongly D-leaning district here, although it would be possible to create 2-3 swing districts (which would look rather awkward in terms of geographic shapes).

[Gass3268]

It seems like this is yet another state where there isn't much that can be done to please Democrats. According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it isn't really possible to create a third strongly D-leaning district here, although it would be possible to create 2-3 swing districts (which would look rather awkward in terms of geographic shapes).

Maybe take a shot at the Tennessee Supreme Court? It's 3-2 Republican, but maybe one could flip?

[Tintrlvr]

It seems like this is yet another state where there isn't much that can be done to please Democrats. According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it isn't really possible to create a third strongly D-leaning district here, although it would be possible to create 2-3 swing districts (which would look rather awkward in terms of geographic shapes).

I think if you split Memphis up, you could create another Democratic district. But that would be sacrificing a black-majority seat.

Here you go: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9b5b9329-9bb3-470f-83b5-ba4b6a607862

It's actually possible to create two minority-majority seats based in Memphis (narrowly, but both are plurality white). They're both competitive but Democratic-leaning; the one that was weaker for Obama in 2008 has trended solidly D since then and is probably actually safer, and the one that was stronger for Obama in 2008 has trended somewhat R but less than you might think (western Tennessee actually hasn't trended R very hard at the presidential level since 2008; it's middle Tennessee that has had a sharp R trend).

This is an obvious Democratic gerrymander (possible dummymander), though. Maybe it could be neater if you went over the top of Shelby County instead of around the bottom.

[Brittain33]

My brain still can’t handle the notion they would crack Nashville but the math looks quite convincing.

[walleye26]

Is Rutherford trending D? I’d like to know more.

[lfromnj]

Is Rutherford trending D? I’d like to know more.

More or less neutral trend.

[Sol]

Is Rutherford trending D? I’d like to know more.

It did in 2016. Rutherford is also the only suburban Nashville county with non-neglible Democratic communities; LaVergne and Smyrna are increasingly extensions of the very diverse Southeast side of Nashville, while MTSU in Murfreesboro is the second largest college in the state. It'd be the most likely to flip of Nashville's collar counties--Bredesen came close in 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

Is Rutherford trending D? I’d like to know more.

It did in 2016. Rutherford is also the only suburban Nashville county with non-neglible Democratic communities; LaVergne and Smyrna are increasingly extensions of the very diverse Southeast side of Nashville, while MTSU in Murfreesboro is the second largest college in the state. It'd be the most likely to flip of Nashville's collar counties--Bredesen came close in 2018.

We however are still a good number of years away from the say if/when it becomes competitive. If the GOP really fear it, then they put less Nashville in it's cut and more rurals. I kinda did it in TN04, in the map above, though a five way cut with TN08 involved could allow Rutherford to get fully locked down.

[Coastal Elitist]

Anyone think Republicans would be brazen enough to try this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b046fa7-ddd0-44e6-83d3-97a6073a9a5c

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone think Republicans would be brazen enough to try this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b046fa7-ddd0-44e6-83d3-97a6073a9a5c

They might try it in a world with no VRA. But not for a moment consider this seriously in real life.

[Nyvin]

Anyone think Republicans would be brazen enough to try this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b046fa7-ddd0-44e6-83d3-97a6073a9a5c

There's no Memphis AA seat,  that would violate the VRA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at a clean TN 8-1 map.