2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee  (Read 17369 times)
S019
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« on: June 10, 2021, 03:24:01 PM »

Tennessee Republicans have in multiple articles stayed quiet about their plans on cracking Nashville, saying they will wait for the data to arrive. This shows at least that cracking Nashville is not a done deal, even if I still think it'll happen in the end: https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/10/harwell-considering-congressional-run-if-the-lines-are-right/, https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/06/10/democrats-anticipate-republican-efforts-to-redraw-coopers-district-out-of-existence/
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S019
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*****
Posts: 18,331
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2021, 01:03:39 PM »



Fail to see how something like this is a dummymander risk.

It isn't, but that doesn't matter, the Representatives may be bothered by their seats becoming 2 or 3 points more Democratic, if they were solely drawing for partisan advantage, cracking Nashville is a no-brainer for the GOP, but some incumbents' concerns may complicate things...
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S019
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*****
Posts: 18,331
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2021, 11:36:10 PM »

So would you guys fall out of your chairs if Nashville was somehow kept intact? I probably wouldn't, since today's articles stated that even the chair of the local Republican Party in Nashville didn't think that would happen (he thought that the district would at most cede Dickson County to other districts).

Not really, we've gotten mixed signals on it all along, and Wasserman said in later tweets that some strategists expressed concern over this, and this is still just a draft, if a certain representative doesn't like how the draft carved up Nashville, then we go back to the drawing board. I've always though it'd happen more likely than not, but few things are certain when redrawing, I give it 80-20 odds.
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S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,331
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2022, 05:25:21 PM »

If Cooper's lucky, he would win 5 in 2022 under those lines. It would require outrunning the Biden 2020 performance by quite a bit but Ds can and do show capability to do better than that.

His best bet is probably 2024, which will likely a. be a much bluer year than 2022 and b. if the seat is going to continue to trend Dem, then it has trended more than it will have in 2022. Either one being true would greatly help his chances and if both are true, he could find himself in a tossup race. Also Republicans might actually want to make some changes to this map looking at it, that TN-07 could potentially cause problems in a Republican President's midterm towards the end of the decade.
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