2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[lfromnj]

yeah Coopers screwed but I would like to note Cooper did better than Bredesen in 2018.

[lfromnj]

A little off topic, but could what happened in Tennessee happen within the next few years in Kentucky and West Virginia?  

In want way? That question is rather vague.

I have been looking at the Tennessee legislature, and comparing the Democrats' share of seats there compared with their counterparts in Kentucky and West Virginia:

Tennessee Senate:

Republicans: 28
Democrats: 5

Tennessee House:

Republicans: 73
Democrats: 26
----------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky Senate:

Republicans: 29
Democrats: 6

Kentucky House:

Republicans: 61
Democrats: 39
----------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia Senate:

Republicans: 20
Democrats: 14

West Virginia House:

Republicans: 59
Democrats: 41

Now, Tennessee has more minorities than in Kentucky and West Virginia, and even there Democrats are virtually irrelevant as a political force, judging by their share of seats in the legislature.  Which leads me to think that once Kentucky and West Virginia Democrats lose their remaining rural, white working class supporters even at the state and local levels (they're already there in the Kentucky Senate) after redistricting, they will be just as irrelevant.  

Perhaps more so, given how much fewer African Americans and other minorities live in those states comparatively, giving them a much lower floor than in other southern states.        

KY ds have 9 not 6 seats in the senate

[lfromnj]

Is Rutherford trending D? I’d like to know more.

More or less neutral trend.

[lfromnj]

yeah basically in East TN if you wanted to go anywhere in politics you would be a Republican just like most of the South was Democrats. Therefore if everyone was a Republican it would have to include people from all areas of politics.

[lfromnj]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-7 was almost in the same situation too.

And the 4 Central TN districts combined were +16 McCain and +26 Trump 2016 and +23 Trump 2020.
Not at all comparable.

[lfromnj]

An interesting factor that helps the TN legislature push for this map is the current gerrymander cracking Nashville suburbs with rural areas.

[lfromnj]

An interesting factor that helps the TN legislature push for this map is the current gerrymander cracking Nashville suburbs with rural areas.

I wouldn't really call the current map a gerrymander.  Unless you actually split Nashville for that purpose, it wouldn't be possible to draw two Democratic or competitive districts in Middle Tennessee.

A hypothetical "ultimate suburban" district containing Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, and either Maury or Sumner would easily be Trump +25.

It had 0 partisan effect under this decade but the idea was a rural bounceback would happen

[lfromnj]

https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/12/07/democrats-cry-foul-on-redistricting/

Just some legislative insider politics. IIRC Rs let Dems draw the 2010 state house districts for Davidson County.

[lfromnj]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NC5PhilWilliams/status/1472013305199808513

[lfromnj]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

2 things make a Nashville crack easier at a political level

First of all it doesn't require any grand division crossing. Middle TN doesn't have to go with West besides the small population leftover.
Secondly the Nashville suburbs are all already cracked with rural areas

[lfromnj]

The most interesting part of the story is that he said "2 or 3" districts.  Most 8-1 maps I've seen used 4 districts for Nashville.  That almost makes me wonder if they're trying some sort of 7-1-1map, if they are not buying 2016-20 trends continuing,, or if Sexton just mispoke.

Cooper is very much positioned on the right of the party and has experience in running in rural areas--7-1-1 is no guarantee of a Republican pickup, even in 2022.

I do think Jim Cooper did outperform Bredesen in 2018.

[lfromnj]

This article gives a decent idea of what the preferred plan by the senate might look like. The plan is to do a two way split of Davidson which is three districts with Green taking in some of Nashville along with 1/3 of Williamson, Rose taking in some of Nashville and Cooper's seat taking in some of Nashville and the rest of Williamson.

https://onthehill.tnjournal.net/threes-a-crowd-senate-gop-would-have-green-desjarlais-cooper-districts-meet-in-nashville/

Based on those descriptions I think it will look something like this:





Even though TN-7 is only Trump+18 there are no bad trends and it's safe along with all the other ones. Trump actually increased his margin of victory in all the Nashville districts and the PVIs all moved to the right as well

What’s up with the Nashville trends? Urban and rural shifts outweighing the suburban shifts? 59-38 still seems risky in a future wave if it turns into Austin. Then again, not everyone moving to Nashville is left-leaning

Well Nashville + Williamson +rutherford is only 1.6 districts so you got 2.4 worth of rurals or clarkesville

[lfromnj]

Honestly Jim Cooper could even try for a comeback by 24 or 26 in a R midterm.

[lfromnj]

Well its not just Kustoff but all that $$$$$$

[lfromnj]

I'm still not entirely convinced that 8-1 will hold for the decade.

A proper 8 1 could.  This probably won't if trends continue.  Still i think it only reverts back to 7 2 at worst for the GOP. Mark Greens seat is much more inelastic and has generally had a decent R trend even if Bredesen came close.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.

[lfromnj]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/23/tennessee-sued-over-state-house-senate-redistricting-maps/9245414002/

Lawsuit based on county provisions for legislative districts. Not sure how much basis it has.  Dems could also try their luck in the state senate for another black majority state senate seat in Memphis using the VRA(current map is 3 Safe D, 2 Safe R in the cluster, fair map would be 3 Safe D , 1 tossup by 2020 presidential numbers and 1 Safe R and 4 black majority means 4 Safe D seats.)

Technically its also barely possible for 5 black majority districts

[lfromnj]

Contiguity requirements are a matter of state law. And I think the rules vary. County dis-contiguity is uncommon but municipal dis-contiguity I see often, particularly fragments of towns, after the heart of a town has been swallowed up by a city.

Nationally districts have to be contiguous by land though, with the only exception being Islands or when there's clear road/ferry/transit between points A and B (i.e. if Satan Island were attatched to lower Manhattan).

I could be wrong but County Contiguity isn't valid on the Congressional level.

No such requirements ?

[lfromnj]

Contiguity requirements are a matter of state law. And I think the rules vary. County dis-contiguity is uncommon but municipal dis-contiguity I see often, particularly fragments of towns, after the heart of a town has been swallowed up by a city.

Nationally districts have to be contiguous by land though, with the only exception being Islands or when there's clear road/ferry/transit between points A and B (i.e. if Satan Island were attatched to lower Manhattan).

I could be wrong but County Contiguity isn't valid on the Congressional level.

No such requirements ?

I could be wrong but I thought contiguity was settled law in the most general sense (i.e Dems couldn't attach the Maryland Panhandle or the penninsula with a seperate random chunk of deep blue precincts outside DC). Ik some states have additional stricter rules

No as far I understand it probably has to do with VRA districts. Basically a VRA distrift should be contigious otherwise it violates the 14th.