TennesseeThe redistricting gods give with one hand, and they take with another. 2020 redistricting overall looks to be fairer and driven more by commissions than 2010. However, in a handful of states lines are set to get worse. Nowhere is this more relevant in Tennessee, where Nashville appears poised to lose its nice compact district. The transition of western Tennessee into a lockstep republican bastion leaves this island of blue vulnerable to a cutup.
Link to 2010 Atlas DiscussionRedistricting HistoryBelieve it or not, Tennessee redistricting in 2000 was a divided affair. The map from 1990-2000 was a purely dixiecratic affair. They drew a map that could maximize potential dixiecratic gains. In 2000, the Republicans had the governorship and dixiecrats had the state legislature without supermajorities. Working together, the map the two sides put together looks like a gerrymander in hindsight. It is not. Tennessee at the local level swung fairly easily thanks to GOP strength (since the civil war!) in the east and dixiecratic strength in the west. The map the two sides agreed to protected the democrats in the west, the republicans in the east, and left so supposed battlegrounds in the center. The 7th for instance was designed to take in as many western republicans as possible, so as to lock down the 8th and make the 4th competitive. Of course, Democrat Lincoln Davis would hold the 4th until 2010, making the map seem like a democratic gerrymander to preserve a diminishing dixiecratic base.
Tennessee Congressional Districts from 2000 to 2010, credit to Wikipedia
2010 swept aside the old dixiecratic partisan machines in Tennessee, just like the rest of the south. The republican wave did not care for the long moderate terms of their rural legislators, only urban Cooper and Cohen survived. The Republicans now held legislature and the governor’s office, granting them a trifecta and sole redistricting power. Immediately the question arose what the GOP was prepared to do with this new power. There were some halfhearted ideas about going after Cooper, but he was left unmolested. Instead, fearing a revival of the Dixiecrats, the GOP drew their seven districts to best accommodate and lock down the gains from 2010. Harsh lines were saved for the legislature where the Republicans moved aggressively to care away the dixiecratic holdouts.
Tennessee Congressional Districts since 2010, credit to Wikipedia
Since 2011Nothing has happened, which is exactly what the GOP originally hoped. The seven GOP seats have cycled incumbents and the two blue seats have remained blue. As we all know, there never was a dixiecratic revival, instead western Tennessee just got more and more red. What were drawn as GOP lockdowns in 2010 gradually became GOP self-packs. When Democrats did try to pierce the state’s ruby hue in 2018, it ended up following the modern coalition breakdown of urban vs rural, rather than the old east vs west dichotomy. The transformation of Western Tennessee has also transformed the state GOP party, bringing it in line with the rest of the south. The old-school easterners have lost their firm grip on the party.
2021 Jim Cooper is the most vulnerable congressman to redistricting in the nation. His island of blue is surrounded by seats with way too many Republicans, and can easily be carved up. Even when considering Bresden’s inflated margins and Blackburn’s lackluster turnout, a Nashville carve-up can be done safely. This is the disadvantage of representing a partisan island, be it blue or red, in the center of your state. It’s incredibly easy to crave up said island since there are already a lot of districts reaching inwards towards the center. To get ever seat to Safe Republican levels where even Blackburn gets 10-point margins at minimum, a 4-way or 5-way cut is needed. However, that isn’t hard.
Hypothetical neat 4-way cut of Nashville, Bresden only wins TN-09 and comes close in no others
Tennessee actually has restrictions on how many counties can be cut between districts, however this only applies to the State Legislature. There are no restrictions preventing the destruction of Nashville. In contrast with KY-03 which now has Beshear’s authority standing in the way of an aggressive legislature, there is nothing protecting TN-05.
What’s Left to DecideNothing. Tennessee’s districts are not competitive and there are too many legislative seats either Safe R or not up for reelection. Tennessee lacks the ballot initiative for citizens to change redistricting law. Democrats have 0% chance at having any seat the table.
