2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone think Republicans would be brazen enough to try this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b046fa7-ddd0-44e6-83d3-97a6073a9a5c

They might try it in a world with no VRA. But not for a moment consider this seriously in real life.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My attempt at a clean TN 8-1 map.

Certainly is clean.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

With the way Cooper continues to behave it would be shocking if he isn't drawn out. It's incredibly easy to do with each seat being at least Trump+23-25. Also not sure what nonsense democrats are talking about regarding potential lawsuits. There are no VRA concerns and no fair district amendments to worry about.

Could you fill me in on what you mean here?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a fair 9-district map of Tennessee.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
61/100 on the Compactness Index
85/100 on County Splitting
50/100 on the Minority Representation index
1/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (that's the South for you though)

The map above shows results from a "2012 - 2016 Composite" (because that's the closest to 2020 out of what's available).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

"2012 - 2016 Composite": 7R to 2D

2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections in Tennessee CPVI: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Tennessee: 7R to 2D


Opinions?

I love how clean it is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can’t remember if this is correct, but didn’t DesJarlais tell people he didn’t want TN-04 to take in part of Davidson?

I wonder if DesJarlais can pressure and badger the legislature to kill this proposal before it becomes viable and takes on a life of its own.

If TN-05 is kept competitive for Ds, then it is quite likely that the singular biggest reason was incumbent grumbling like that of DesJarlais.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Mark Green have enough allies in the legislature to stop an 8R-1D?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

Simultaneously baconmandering and pizzamandering Memphis and Nashville, respectively is theoretically possible but looks absolutely terrible and could lead to vulnerable districts in Democratic-leaning years if trends continue.  But, even absent the VRA, it's a lot easier to eliminate Cooper's seat than Cohen's.  That's because of both partisanship of the current seats and location within the state.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e3bf274e-9651-49aa-9225-fc5a8d43c10c
This is the cleanest 9R-0D map I can conjure at the moment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

2 things make a Nashville crack easier at a political level

First of all it doesn't require any grand division crossing. Middle TN doesn't have to go with West besides the small population leftover.
Secondly the Nashville suburbs are all already cracked with rural areas

And even if the numbers for a Memphis crack somehow exist, there's the problem that the Memphis burbs seem particularly inclined to be paired together. If split in two, they'd probably be outvoted by rural interests and they would not have their own member of Congress.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a more out-there idea.

You can justify it by saying you're representing the TN black vote better by having the VRA seat include black-majority bits of Memphis, black-majority bits of Nashville, and black-majority rural areas.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fbd5418-a7f0-411d-9cbe-c914aafeda23

It is also illegal on the grounds of being a black pack where race rather than partisanship drew the lines.

So it's as legal as the NC-01 that Rs had in their first gerrymander in the 2010s (that SCOTUS struck down).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Cooper's lucky, he would win 5 in 2022 under those lines. It would require outrunning the Biden 2020 performance by quite a bit but Ds can and do show capability to do better than that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Cooper's lucky, he would win 5 in 2022 under those lines. It would require outrunning the Biden 2020 performance by quite a bit but Ds can and do show capability to do better than that.

His best bet is probably 2024, which will likely a. be a much bluer year than 2022 and b. if the seat is going to continue to trend Dem, then it has trended more than it will have in 2022. Either one being true would greatly help his chances and if both are true, he could find himself in a tossup race. Also Republicans might actually want to make some changes to this map looking at it, that TN-07 could potentially cause problems in a Republican President's midterm towards the end of the decade.

Are you proposing he retire in 2022 and run for the seat in 2024?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

I'm wary of making the 9th more black, and the current arrangement is extremely compact - essentially close as compact as possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.

I only want two split counties, meaning that one county in Metro Nashville has to be split in two. I can transfer the double chop to Robertson if need be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/005bac6a-c6dc-45ac-beaf-8b49eaa12aa8
TN non-partisan map optimized for reducing the number of split counties. Only two are split - Williamson and Shelby.

I question the utility of putting Germantown and Collierville in the Memphis seat while not including the entirety of Memphis proper. It's a moot point strictly on VRA grounds, since the seat will still perform, but in terms of COI it's messy.

Id also probably add NW rutherford to the Nashville district.

I only want two split counties, meaning that one county in Metro Nashville has to be split in two. I can transfer the double chop to Robertson if need be.

IMO it's better to split two counties once than split one county between three districts, which totally dilutes that place's voice.

That's valid logic in a number of instances. But only a very silly definition could describe either Williamson or Robertson County being diluted here.
73% of Williamson is in TN-07 here. TN-05 takes only 52k of Williamson, and only 13k is taken from Williamson to add to TN-06.
If the chop is transferred to Robertson (a county of 73k), then TN-06 has to take 13k of it. The 52k shortfall of a Nashville-only CD is made up in Robertson, which means 71% of the county is within TN-05. This leaves 8k to go to TN-07.
The math doesn't add up for any dilution claim.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38e4214b-3e69-42c1-8eeb-26ed5ec40a8e
Alternative arrangement in Middle Tennessee. Robertson shifted to the 6th, Macon and Smith shifted to TN-04, TN-04 no longer just whole counties, TN-06 now full counties, Williamson now 16k TN-04, 52k TN-05, 179k TN-07.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update, I was able to get a hold of the shapefiles for the new map. I have imported them into DRA, so you can now find an interactive version of the congressional lines here:



https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f3ed018f-bbe1-4a98-9218-c01c75b4da74

Wow, so in the 2018 senate election Breseden (D) won the new 5th by nineteen votes.

And he only lost the 7th by 1071 votes (49.6%-49.1%).

It'd be very amusing if both of those districts end up flipping D later in the decade.

Any chance TN Rs were using 2018 senate numbers as a benchmark for the best possible D performance?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance TN Rs were using 2018 senate numbers as a benchmark for the best possible D performance?

That wouldn't surprise me.

Hmm, just using presidential data, the 5th went from Trump+17.1% in 2016 to Trump+11.3% in 2020, while the 7th went from Trump+17.2% in 2016 to Trump+15.1% in 2020. So while both of the districts may have had similar performances in 2016 and 2018, looks like it's the 5th that has the best chances for Dems in the future- important to look at trends as well as past performances!

That 2016>2020 swing in TN-05 is notable for two reasons. 1) This is the South, which generally means lower elasticity thanks to less swingy demographics, and 2) It's considerably in excess of the average nationwide swing, which is around 2 points iirc.
I would not at all be shocked if TN-05 or even TN-07 was Dem by 2030.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

District contiguity of not I believe is a matter of state law. Not all states require bridge or ferry or land connections. There is no point debating this further absent someone providing citations when they have time.

That would not surprise me, if it was a matter of state law. American states can vary immensely in their redistricting laws.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Check out my legal under current SCOTUS map!

Crafty gerrymander. But I doubt that the destruction of a black seat like this, especially one that is so obvious to draw, would withstand litigation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bb769187-c924-4130-9939-5281a6e3590c
Clean 8R-1D map

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.lawyerscommittee.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/TN-Complaint-final.pdf
Here is a link to the PDF of the complaint itself.