2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It looks to me like the House is scared of trends in Rutherford County and wanted to avoid using that in their split.  Also, I bet Mark Green demanded to still represent Williamson County, which meant they had to get creative.

[BoiseBoy]

Taking Memphis into Tipton County? Why the hell would they do that?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Taking Memphis into Tipton County? Why the hell would they do that?

Probably some rich donor in Shelby that didn't fancy being drawn in Steve Cohen's district.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Taking Memphis into Tipton County? Why the hell would they do that?

Probably some rich donor in Shelby that didn't fancy being drawn in Steve Cohen's district.

Right, and Cohen's district had to expand for population purposes.  Some rich Republicans in Eastern Shelby County probably campaigned against being part of a blue district.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It looks to me like the House is scared of trends in Rutherford County and wanted to avoid using that in their split.  Also, I bet Mark Green demanded to still represent Williamson County, which meant they had to get creative.

Any info on election results for each district? Probably smart to exclude Rutherford, it seems like the high growth and eventual bluing is happening there and southern Williamson right?

[Gass3268]

TN-05 is only Trump +8

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1481307885837565955?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

TN-05 is only Trump +8

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1481307885837565955?s=20

I was calculating around R+10.7. Regardless, it's a seat that will seem competitive in a good year, but won't actually be.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

TN-05 is only Trump +8

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1481307885837565955?s=20

Wasserman has it at Trump +9

It looks to me like the House is scared of trends in Rutherford County and wanted to avoid using that in their split.  Also, I bet Mark Green demanded to still represent Williamson County, which meant they had to get creative.

Any info on election results for each district? Probably smart to exclude Rutherford, it seems like the high growth and eventual bluing is happening there and southern Williamson right?

Southern Williamson and Northern Maury are growing very quickly and swung heavily in 2020, but the thinking is likely that raw vote growth can still counteract percentage swing.  Still, I'd have felt better if it was more than Trump +9.  That seems like an unnecessary risk.

[Roll Roons]

I bet we'll get a compact Dem seat in Nashville after 2030.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Taking Memphis into Tipton County? Why the hell would they do that?

If I'm eyeballing it correctly, that district seems quite overpopulated, too.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I bet we'll get a compact Dem seat in Nashville after 2030.

Particularly if Tennessee gains a 10th district, it might be necessary, but 8-1 is pretty safe to do now.  This isn't a very well drawn 8-1, though, and is needlessly both risky and ugly.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Nashville isn't quite as liberal as other cities, democratic margins have a lot of room to grow there, this seat seems like it could me competive in 2026 assuming a republican president.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Miles has the new TN-5 as a Bredesen 2018 district

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1481329159024562177?t=0C8BmnDAYhTarxfZk...

[Tekken_Guy]

People are saying the new TN-05 is somewhere between high single digits and low double digits for Trump. This seat could be interesting by the end of the decade though depending on how trends go.

[lfromnj]

Honestly Jim Cooper could even try for a comeback by 24 or 26 in a R midterm.

[Adam Griffin]

For those interested:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a27902a8-eca7-4ea2-bd46-ffd2f8680b3e

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Cooper's lucky, he would win 5 in 2022 under those lines. It would require outrunning the Biden 2020 performance by quite a bit but Ds can and do show capability to do better than that.

[S019]

If Cooper's lucky, he would win 5 in 2022 under those lines. It would require outrunning the Biden 2020 performance by quite a bit but Ds can and do show capability to do better than that.

His best bet is probably 2024, which will likely a. be a much bluer year than 2022 and b. if the seat is going to continue to trend Dem, then it has trended more than it will have in 2022. Either one being true would greatly help his chances and if both are true, he could find himself in a tossup race. Also Republicans might actually want to make some changes to this map looking at it, that TN-07 could potentially cause problems in a Republican President's midterm towards the end of the decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Cooper's lucky, he would win 5 in 2022 under those lines. It would require outrunning the Biden 2020 performance by quite a bit but Ds can and do show capability to do better than that.

His best bet is probably 2024, which will likely a. be a much bluer year than 2022 and b. if the seat is going to continue to trend Dem, then it has trended more than it will have in 2022. Either one being true would greatly help his chances and if both are true, he could find himself in a tossup race. Also Republicans might actually want to make some changes to this map looking at it, that TN-07 could potentially cause problems in a Republican President's midterm towards the end of the decade.

Are you proposing he retire in 2022 and run for the seat in 2024?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/schelzig/status/1483474766581448706?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/schelzig/status/1483474766581448706?s=20

Yeah, putting Tipton in there made no sense. Glad at least one thing about this awful map was improved.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/schelzig/status/1483474766581448706?s=20

Yeah, putting Tipton in there made no sense. Glad at least one thing about this awful map was improved.

It kinda made sense in the context that Kustoff lives in Germantown, but there were still alternate areas to be taken in that didn't strand him.

[lfromnj]

Well its not just Kustoff but all that $$$$$$

[BoiseBoy]

So I was wrong, they chose to split Tipton instead of remove it entirely. Yikes.

https://twitter.com/BrandonLRichard/status/1483513261068898305?s=20

[Schiff for Senate]

Honestly the TNGOP should make themselves - and the map - look good and just take the Democrats' 7-2 map. Yes, I know they're gunning for 8-1, but this makes them look gracious (like the GOPs in KY and MO) - and considering the current map is also 7-2, they just get a much cleaner map with no change to the overall partisanship. Though of course, they would still have to oppose it because it shakes up incumbents' positions quite a bit.