2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[BoiseBoy]

No surprise, but the 8-1 plan appears to be a go

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1436004585504706562

Disappointing, but not surprising.

[Roll Roons]

I still think they're asking for trouble down the road by doing this. Let's see what happens.

[lfromnj]

An interesting factor that helps the TN legislature push for this map is the current gerrymander cracking Nashville suburbs with rural areas.

[BoiseBoy]

I still think they're asking for trouble down the road by doing this. Let's see what happens.

It's easy to do a 4-way split, and have the most Democrat district in the area be R+18 or more. That probably wouldn't be competitive for some time. All that matters is that it holds for the next decade.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No surprise, but the 8-1 plan appears to be a go

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1436004585504706562

Can’t say I blame them, sucks though

[100% pro-life no matter what]

An interesting factor that helps the TN legislature push for this map is the current gerrymander cracking Nashville suburbs with rural areas.

I wouldn't really call the current map a gerrymander.  Unless you actually split Nashville for that purpose, it wouldn't be possible to draw two Democratic or competitive districts in Middle Tennessee.

A hypothetical "ultimate suburban" district containing Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, and either Maury or Sumner would easily be Trump +25.

[lfromnj]

An interesting factor that helps the TN legislature push for this map is the current gerrymander cracking Nashville suburbs with rural areas.

I wouldn't really call the current map a gerrymander.  Unless you actually split Nashville for that purpose, it wouldn't be possible to draw two Democratic or competitive districts in Middle Tennessee.

A hypothetical "ultimate suburban" district containing Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, and either Maury or Sumner would easily be Trump +25.

It had 0 partisan effect under this decade but the idea was a rural bounceback would happen

[OBD]

No surprise, but the 8-1 plan appears to be a go

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1436004585504706562

Here's to hoping they hired the NEGOP to draw their maps.

[TML]

So would you guys fall out of your chairs if Nashville was somehow kept intact? I probably wouldn't, since today's articles stated that even the chair of the local Republican Party in Nashville didn't think that would happen (he thought that the district would at most cede Dickson County to other districts).

[BoiseBoy]

So would you guys fall out of your chairs if Nashville was somehow kept intact? I probably wouldn't, since today's articles stated that even the chair of the local Republican Party in Nashville didn't think that would happen (he thought that the district would at most cede Dickson County to other districts).

The ideal TN-05 sheds Dickson and Cheatham, which go into TN-07. My version of it pulls in the MinMaj town of La Vergne from Rutherford County and also pulls in the other half of Goodlettsville from Sumner.

[S019]

So would you guys fall out of your chairs if Nashville was somehow kept intact? I probably wouldn't, since today's articles stated that even the chair of the local Republican Party in Nashville didn't think that would happen (he thought that the district would at most cede Dickson County to other districts).

Not really, we've gotten mixed signals on it all along, and Wasserman said in later tweets that some strategists expressed concern over this, and this is still just a draft, if a certain representative doesn't like how the draft carved up Nashville, then we go back to the drawing board. I've always though it'd happen more likely than not, but few things are certain when redrawing, I give it 80-20 odds.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Another 8R-1D map I made. DesJarlais moves to the 5th district, but all over incumbents besides Cooper obviously are in there same numbered districts. Nashville is sliced into 4 seats. All districts are safe.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8bc61f5-47e9-4a6c-8629-ae62c8da10ce

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Another 8R-1D map I made. DesJarlais moves to the 5th district, but all over incumbents besides Cooper obviously are in there same numbered districts. Nashville is sliced into 4 seats. All districts are safe.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8bc61f5-47e9-4a6c-8629-ae62c8da10ce

I think DesJarlais might still try to run in the 4th in a map like that.  It's most of the familiar voters to him, and I think it's likely he'd lose a primary in that 5th to a Williamson County/Suburban Nashville Republican.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Just another generic 3 way Nashville crack based on the 2020 election.







https://davesredistricting.org/join/4c360299-7d7f-47d4-a0bb-91d474e55207

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1461038110897287183?s=21

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1461038110897287183?s=21

It's a moot hypothetical, but I really don't think DesJarlais would run in that 4th.  He'd moreso be double-bunked with Rose in the 6th.  Rutherford County has always been his weak spot in GOP Primaries, and I really think he'd struggle in the primary of a Williamson-Rutherford-Wilson district.

If it stays 7-2, I can't see that drastic of a change to Middle Tennessee happening.

[Schiff for Senate]

I still think they're asking for trouble down the road by doing this. Let's see what happens.

I think by the time trends start catching up and both Nashville districts are bordering on competitivity, the 2030 redistricting will come around and the TNGOP will gerrymander accordingly, probably putting Nashville back into one district to have a 7-2 map instead of risking a 6-3 map. Or they could break Nashville up into several districts so its voting power is very diluted and meaningless. It also depends on how they split it up; many who've posted here have created maps where Nashville is not split into two but rather three or four different districts, thus destroying any chance of any of the Nashville districts to be competitive. And since the VRA isn't being explicitly violated (no race-based gerrymander), I doubt the court would care all that much. They don't do much about race-based gerrymandering as it is, and they care even less about blatant partisan gerrymandering. But despite my not knowing how it's possible, I really hope you are correct inthat the TNGOP faces karma for their actions. One would think they'd be content with a 7-2 map, but no!: they want an 8-1 map. Just wow at how greedy they are.

[BoiseBoy]

Nashville's political future could be in jeopardy by gerrymandered congressional districts | Opinion



Looks like 8-1 is the prevailing plan.

Any chance of a 4-way split being successfully challenged in court or is Tennessee gonna get away with this horsesh**t?

[Nyvin]

Mark Green is one of the most partisan members of Congress.  Why would he show Cooper the map?

[Tekken_Guy]

Mark Green is one of the most partisan members of Congress.  Why would he show Cooper the map?

Green opposes 8-1 because he's annoyed that he no longer gets to represent the Republican donors in Williamson County

Then he can carpetbag to Williamson.

[Brittain33]

Someone noted that map is just Dave Wasserman's from a few months ago.

[Skill and Chance]

Nashville's political future could be in jeopardy by gerrymandered congressional districts | Opinion



Looks like 8-1 is the prevailing plan.

Any chance of a 4-way split being successfully challenged in court or is Tennessee gonna get away with this horsesh**t?

This wouldn't involve any VRA districts and the state courts are now dominated by Republican appointees. 

[lfromnj]

https://tennesseelookout.com/2021/12/07/democrats-cry-foul-on-redistricting/

Just some legislative insider politics. IIRC Rs let Dems draw the 2010 state house districts for Davidson County.

[lfromnj]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!