2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's a much cleaner map of Tennesse that splits Nashville: https://davesredistricting.org/join/26814ee0-6d47-4106-b24d-1a081b7b8296

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Here's a much cleaner map of Tennesse that splits Nashville: https://davesredistricting.org/join/26814ee0-6d47-4106-b24d-1a081b7b8296

If you are going to crack Nashville, I think something like this makes the most logical sense.  I'm most familiar with the Southern half of Davidson County and the suburban counties south of it (Williamson, Rutherford, Northern Maury).  In a way, Southeastern Nashville (especially areas like Antioch) has started to spill over into Northwestern Rutherford County (especially La Vergne and Smyrna), so, if you are cracking Nashville, it makes sense to orient Antioch/SE Nashville with Rutherford County.  Then, portions of Southern and Southwestern Davidson County are super wealthy and historically very Republican (many even leaning Republican to this day).  Many of these areas were in a district with Williamson County in the 2000s and are culturally not too dissimilar from Brentwood and Franklin.

From there, I feel very strongly that Maury County should be in the same district as Williamson County.  Maury is rapidly growing, especially in Columbia and Spring Hill, but its growth is very much oriented towards Williamson County.  A lot of people who are priced out of living in Franklin or Brentwood but prefer a more suburban/exurban lifestyle to an urban one are winding up in Maury County.  Many here don't realize this and just think it's a random rural county, but that's not really true anymore.

The last thing you want to do is just tinker with how much of Nashville you give to each district.  While I'm not really a "trends are permanent" person, I think it's best to take a little insurance in case I am wrong.  To do this, I like to have my districts taking Williamson and Rutherford Counties a few points to the right of the ones heading in other directions.

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair 9-district map of Tennessee.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
61/100 on the Compactness Index
85/100 on County Splitting
50/100 on the Minority Representation index
1/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (that's the South for you though)

The map above shows results from a "2012 - 2016 Composite" (because that's the closest to 2020 out of what's available).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

"2012 - 2016 Composite": 7R to 2D

2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections in Tennessee CPVI: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Tennessee: 7R to 2D


Opinions?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a fair 9-district map of Tennessee.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
61/100 on the Compactness Index
85/100 on County Splitting
50/100 on the Minority Representation index
1/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (that's the South for you though)

The map above shows results from a "2012 - 2016 Composite" (because that's the closest to 2020 out of what's available).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

"2012 - 2016 Composite": 7R to 2D

2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections in Tennessee CPVI: 7R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Tennessee: 7R to 2D


Opinions?

I love how clean it is.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The 2020 Census allocations may have been bad news for a 8-1 map because of a combination of two factors.  First, Nashville (and its suburbs) are growing MUCH faster than the state as a whole, which is limiting the amount of Republican territory that can be added to these districts, even though the suburban counties are all still pretty red.  Heavily Republican exurban Maury County (south of Williamson) is now the fastest growing county in the state (excluding tiny Trousdale, whose growth is entirely related to a new jail).  Secondly, Memphis is actually growing much slower than the state as a whole, requiring the Shelby County-based Democratic district to eat up more Republican territory and get ever so slightly less Democratic.

I was able to still do a 4 district crack and get Trump +26, Trump +30, Trump +27, and Trump +24, the latter of which doesn't contain suburbs that trended heavily Democratic in 2016 and 2020.  But, those are based on 2016 numbers.  I did make the Rutherford and Williamson-based districts the more Republican ones, but they might have been Trump +18-20 in 2020.  Especially at the Congressional level, I'm pretty sure that these would be safe for 10 years, but I could understand some of the representatives not wanting to take that shot.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e2eac231-50e1-4e4e-a46e-826eca5a1141

[S019]

Fail to see how something like this is a dummymander risk.

It isn't, but that doesn't matter, the Representatives may be bothered by their seats becoming 2 or 3 points more Democratic, if they were solely drawing for partisan advantage, cracking Nashville is a no-brainer for the GOP, but some incumbents' concerns may complicate things...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Fail to see how something like this is a dummymander risk.

This is the first time I've seen a five-way crack of Nashville attempted.  I'd typically seen it done with four districts before, but it might be helpful to let five districts have a bit of Davidson County.

[Brittain33]

Would the rep from suburban Memphis object to being part of a five-way crack of Davidson?

[BoiseBoy]

I can’t remember if this is correct, but didn’t DesJarlais tell people he didn’t want TN-04 to take in part of Davidson?

[Stuart98]

In my 8-1 R map. Nashville is cracked by 5 districts and Chattanooga is cracked as well and One VRA seat in Memphis.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6da54831-ec0c-4c51-897d-50dfabbe8758

It's Knoxville that you have to worry about cracking; Chattanooga is safe R.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

In my 8-1 R map. Nashville is cracked by 5 districts and Chattanooga is cracked as well and One VRA seat in Memphis.

It's Knoxville that you have to worry about cracking; Chattanooga is safe R.

That map was made before the 2020 census data and 2020 Election. This new map I made cracks Nashville 5 times. This map started pretty clean until I made the 2nd and 5th districts which makes my map look messy. I respect all incumbents locations except for Cooper for obvious reasons.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/96c1912a-e8bc-4fa2-8a3e-6eb3f8c23e37

[Brittain33]

I can’t remember if this is correct, but didn’t DesJarlais tell people he didn’t want TN-04 to take in part of Davidson?

I wonder if DesJarlais can pressure and badger the legislature to kill this proposal before it becomes viable and takes on a life of its own.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can’t remember if this is correct, but didn’t DesJarlais tell people he didn’t want TN-04 to take in part of Davidson?

I wonder if DesJarlais can pressure and badger the legislature to kill this proposal before it becomes viable and takes on a life of its own.

If TN-05 is kept competitive for Ds, then it is quite likely that the singular biggest reason was incumbent grumbling like that of DesJarlais.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I can’t remember if this is correct, but didn’t DesJarlais tell people he didn’t want TN-04 to take in part of Davidson?

I wonder if DesJarlais can pressure and badger the legislature to kill this proposal before it becomes viable and takes on a life of its own.

If TN-05 is kept competitive for Ds, then it is quite likely that the singular biggest reason was incumbent grumbling like that of DesJarlais.

If the TN GOP had to sacrifice one of its representatives, I could almost guarantee it would be DesJarlais.  It wouldn't be that hard to find some Murfreesboro Republican to run in that district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cleanish Nashville crack. Wouldn't look like a gerrymander to your average person.

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's an updated version of my map and all the R districts are safe. Also, you do not need to crack Knoxville the trends there are overrated.






Here's a look at how the raw vote margin changed from 2016 to 2020

TN-1: Trump+156,895 to Trump+182,155
TN-2: Trump+97,938 to Trump+95,943
TN-3: Trump+69,630 to Trump+81,286
TN-4: Trump+108,766 to Trump+120,198
TN-5: Trump+69,350 to Trump+73,939
TN-6: Trump+72,963 to Trump+78,420
TN-7: Trump+75,391 to Trump+80,723
TN-8: Trump+129,088 to Trump+144,180
TN-9: Clinton+127,791 to Biden+148,080

So with the exception of TN-2 where the raw vote margin only dropped by 1,995 votes he actually increased his raw vote margin in every Republican-held district despite the percentage change dropping.

With that said if you want to go all out I would do Reagente's map but doing something like this should be super safe as well.

[Nyvin]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-7 was almost in the same situation too.

[Roll Roons]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

[Coastal Elitist]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

So just to repeat stop looking at the percentage change in the vote Trump won each district that takes in Nashville by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That's the trend to look at not how the percent changed. 2020 had a lot higher turnout than 2016 so these percentage changes are skewed and look worse than they are. If the best the dems can do is turnout more voters and lose by more than these should be safe.

[lfromnj]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-7 was almost in the same situation too.

And the 4 Central TN districts combined were +16 McCain and +26 Trump 2016 and +23 Trump 2020.
Not at all comparable.

[Nyvin]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

So just to repeat stop looking at the percentage change in the vote Trump won each district that takes in Nashville by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That's the trend to look at not how the percent changed. 2020 had a lot higher turnout than 2016 so these percentage changes are skewed and look worse than they are. If the best the dems can do is turnout more voters and lose by more than these should be safe.

Without knowing how much higher turnout was in 2020 that's kinda a useless metric though.  If  turnout is brought high enough pretty much any raw margin will increase, unless the district is trending so fast it's bound to be gone anyway. 

Besides that doesn't even tell the whole picture, once turnout is down again in the next cycle, does the raw margin stay the same or does the percentage persist with the lowered margins?

[Nyvin]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-7 was almost in the same situation too.

And the 4 Central TN districts combined were +16 McCain and +26 Trump 2016 and +23 Trump 2020.
Not at all comparable.

It might be worse since in 2008 the rurals weren't all maxed out for the GOP like they are in 2020.   Since the districts will be starting at 60-37 with the rurals already voting like 80 or 82% R then there's really nowhere for them to go but down.   Assuming the suburbia collapse continues, which we have every reason to believe will.

Unless someone can see Biden in 2024 winning Jackson county like Obama did in 2008?

[Coastal Elitist]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

So just to repeat stop looking at the percentage change in the vote Trump won each district that takes in Nashville by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That's the trend to look at not how the percent changed. 2020 had a lot higher turnout than 2016 so these percentage changes are skewed and look worse than they are. If the best the dems can do is turnout more voters and lose by more than these should be safe.

Without knowing how much higher turnout was in 2020 that's kinda a useless metric though.  If  turnout is brought high enough pretty much any raw margin will increase, unless the district is trending so fast it's bound to be gone anyway. 

Besides that doesn't even tell the whole picture, once turnout is down again in the next cycle, does the raw margin stay the same or does the percentage persist with the lowered margins?

What no it's not. You can easily calculate how much higher turnout was. How is the percentage change better a metric then? It's pretty obvious that Tennessee isn't trending like the other two examples you mention. Obviously, when turnout is lower it means the percentage margin will go up. I don't know why this is so hard for you to understand. Tennessee is not trending dem.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I know it's not a perfect comparison, but GA-6 and GA-7 were both 60R-37D (-ish) districts in 2012 as well.   Not necessarily guaranteed to be safe.

TX-10 and TX-21 (Austin crack districts) each gave Romney around 60% but only barely went to Trump last year.

So just to repeat stop looking at the percentage change in the vote Trump won each district that takes in Nashville by more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. That's the trend to look at not how the percent changed. 2020 had a lot higher turnout than 2016 so these percentage changes are skewed and look worse than they are. If the best the dems can do is turnout more voters and lose by more than these should be safe.

Without knowing how much higher turnout was in 2020 that's kinda a useless metric though.  If  turnout is brought high enough pretty much any raw margin will increase, unless the district is trending so fast it's bound to be gone anyway. 

Besides that doesn't even tell the whole picture, once turnout is down again in the next cycle, does the raw margin stay the same or does the percentage persist with the lowered margins?

What no it's not. You can easily calculate how much higher turnout was. How is the percentage change better a metric then? It's pretty obvious that Tennessee isn't trending like the other two examples you mention. Obviously, when turnout is lower it means the percentage margin will go up. I don't know why this is so hard for you to understand. Tennessee is not trending dem.

TN isn’t but Nashville metro area pretty clearly is, and that’s the part being cracked.

Considering these districts will all be pretty good mix and urban/suburbs/rurals, Trump + 20 should be fine for the decade; districts like GA-6 or TX-7 were purely suburban and therefore more prone to trends. If any of these TN seats fall then there’s either a massive unforeseen political re-alignment or the GOP is in the trash nationally.

[Meatball Ron]

No surprise, but the 8-1 plan appears to be a go

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1436004585504706562