2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[Torie]

Here's a more out-there idea.

You can justify it by saying you're representing the TN black vote better by having the VRA seat include black-majority bits of Memphis, black-majority bits of Nashville, and black-majority rural areas.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fbd5418-a7f0-411d-9cbe-c914aafeda23

It is also illegal on the grounds of being a black pack where race rather than partisanship drew the lines.

So it's as legal as the NC-01 that Rs had in their first gerrymander in the 2010s (that SCOTUS struck down).

Yes, although bear in mind that the facts were unusual in the NC case. The Pubs thought they had to gerrymander to get over 50% black, so it was the blacks that they were going after rather than Dems. That was because they guessed wrong as to what the law was.

Now nobody expressly goes after blacks, in a gerrymander, or admits it, once a CD is black performing. Rather it is all about going after Dems. It is akin to a  tyrancal Goldilocks rule. As long as a CD is deemed "compact," you go after blacks until a CD is black performing. but if you then go past that and gerrymander further, to get the black percentage up more, then it is also illegal. It must be just right or else. So, that is why lines are drawn based on party preference but not race as an initial matter, and then you check to see if, where Gingles is in play, you have the requisite performing black CD's. If not, then you move the lines around until you do, but no more.

From the Pub perspective, the best practice is to start by hewing to jurisdictional lines and compactness, and if not Pub enough, get less compact and chop more to the extent necessary to get to the right level of Pubness, and then check, if Gingles is in play, as to whether you screwed the blacks out of a performing CD, and if so, revise as necessary to make it all legal.
Quite often you can get a satisfactory Pubmander just by doing step one, and have a nice pretty map. I did that with my MI Pubmander the other day. Remember?

[Aurelius]

If I were in charge of TN redistricting I might make a map like this whose primary aim is to punish Scott DesJarlais for being a despicable POS.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f9d81ce2-a45c-484e-a996-c3d86e97114e

DesJarlais is double bunked with Fleischmann in a district that contains all of metro Chattanooga (Fleischmann's home territory) and very little of DesJarlais' rural core. Fleischmann would win this primary easily.

Rose trades away some of suburban/exurban Nashville for the majority of the rural core of DesJarlais' current district.

Rutherford County is placed with Williamson and other counties in a suburban/exurban Nashville district that also contains Green's home. I don't think Williamson County evangelicals would be very fond of DesJarlais' abominable behavior.

The two remaining counties of DesJarlais' current district go to a SW Tennessee district stretching west to Kustoff's stomping grounds in the eastern suburbs of Memphis.

The vacant district is based in Clarksville and rural NW Tennessee, also taking in some Nashville exurbs. This district is as far from DesJarlais' home territory as possible to make it difficult for him to carpetbag into it.

Burchett's and Harshbarger's districts are redrawn as necessary to complete the jigsaw puzzle.

This is a 7-2 map. Drawing a 8-1 map that scuttles DesJarlais' chances like this is harder but I'll give it a try too.

[BoiseBoy]

We will see draft maps JANUARY 12:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1478784743827255296?s=20

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kkruesi/status/1480610368921739267

[Suburbia]

So there is going to be a GOP representative for Nashville, for the first time since when?

[Calthrina950]

This has been expected for months. That means Jim Cooper will be out of the House in January 2023, for the second and last time. He first left the House in 1994 to run for Senate (in a special election for Al Gore's seat) but was defeated by the late Fred Thompson that year and returned in 2003.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/kkruesi/status/1480610368921739267

Any potential for a successful lawsuit there?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Huh, I had hoped that the Nashville seat was going to survive after seeing the GOP spare the Louisville and Kansas City districts. Oh well.

[Schiff for Senate]

Huh, I had hope that the Nashville seat was going to survive after seeing the GOP spare the Louisville and Kansas City districts. Oh well.

Your mistake was in equating the half-decent GOPs of MO and KY with the utterly polluted, disgusting, disgraceful and shameful TNGOP. Tennessee's Republicans are utterly sick, even more so than Kentucky's and Missouri's are. No comparison. (Interestingly, just 1/5 KY House Republicans - and that person was Hal Rogers of all people - voted to overturn, while 7/7 TN House Republicans did. 5/6 MO Republicans supported overturning, the exception being Ann Wagner, who represents a suburban district that just barely voted for Trump in 2020.)

[Unelectable Bystander]

Huh, I had hope that the Nashville seat was going to survive after seeing the GOP spare the Louisville and Kansas City districts. Oh well.

Your mistake was in equating the half-decent GOPs of MO and KY with the utterly polluted, disgusting, disgraceful and shameful TNGOP. Tennessee's Republicans are utterly sick, even more so than Kentucky's and Missouri's are. No comparison. (Interestingly, just 1/5 KY House Republicans - and that person was Hal Rogers of all people - voted to overturn, while 7/7 TN House Republicans did. 5/6 MO Republicans supported overturning, the exception being Ann Wagner, who represents a suburban district that just barely voted for Trump in 2020.)

As an Illinois resident, cry me a river about gerrymanders

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The most interesting part of the story is that he said "2 or 3" districts.  Most 8-1 maps I've seen used 4 districts for Nashville.  That almost makes me wonder if they're trying some sort of 7-1-1map, if they are not buying 2016-20 trends continuing,, or if Sexton just mispoke.

[Schiff for Senate]

Huh, I had hope that the Nashville seat was going to survive after seeing the GOP spare the Louisville and Kansas City districts. Oh well.

Your mistake was in equating the half-decent GOPs of MO and KY with the utterly polluted, disgusting, disgraceful and shameful TNGOP. Tennessee's Republicans are utterly sick, even more so than Kentucky's and Missouri's are. No comparison. (Interestingly, just 1/5 KY House Republicans - and that person was Hal Rogers of all people - voted to overturn, while 7/7 TN House Republicans did. 5/6 MO Republicans supported overturning, the exception being Ann Wagner, who represents a suburban district that just barely voted for Trump in 2020.)

As an Illinois resident, cry me a river about gerrymanders

Honestly, IL Democrats were justified in their gerrymandering given that thus far Democrats outside of MD have refrained from gerrymandering and almost exclusively, gerrymandering is done to the GOP's benefit. Having said that, I definitely think that the gerrymander in IL was blatant, obvious and ugly. The Democrats have a problem that while the GOP is able to gerrymander states and still have relatively clean-looking districts, Democrats can't go anywhere without coming up with the ugliest districts that make it very obvious a gerrymander has occurred (see: MD, IL).

[BoiseBoy]

The most interesting part of the story is that he said "2 or 3" districts.  Most 8-1 maps I've seen used 4 districts for Nashville.  That almost makes me wonder if they're trying some sort of 7-1-1map, if they are not buying 2016-20 trends continuing,, or if Sexton just mispoke.

Splitting Nashville into 2 districts practically guarantees one of those will be a DEM seat. I think 3 districts is the minimum if they want all three to be Republican leaning, and even still one of those will be risky down the line. I'll be surprised if they don't split it into four districts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

well f**k

Between this and MO, please tell me again how Republicans are unilaterally disarming or whatever.

[Sol]

The most interesting part of the story is that he said "2 or 3" districts.  Most 8-1 maps I've seen used 4 districts for Nashville.  That almost makes me wonder if they're trying some sort of 7-1-1map, if they are not buying 2016-20 trends continuing,, or if Sexton just mispoke.

Cooper is very much positioned on the right of the party and has experience in running in rural areas--7-1-1 is no guarantee of a Republican pickup, even in 2022.

[Nyvin]

Well, New York being a D gerrymander is justified now.

I assume the plan is to put Rutherford into one district and then split Davidson up between the remaining three central Tennessee districts.

[lfromnj]

The most interesting part of the story is that he said "2 or 3" districts.  Most 8-1 maps I've seen used 4 districts for Nashville.  That almost makes me wonder if they're trying some sort of 7-1-1map, if they are not buying 2016-20 trends continuing,, or if Sexton just mispoke.

Cooper is very much positioned on the right of the party and has experience in running in rural areas--7-1-1 is no guarantee of a Republican pickup, even in 2022.

I do think Jim Cooper did outperform Bredesen in 2018.

[Ritz]

The most interesting part of the story is that he said "2 or 3" districts.  Most 8-1 maps I've seen used 4 districts for Nashville.  That almost makes me wonder if they're trying some sort of 7-1-1map, if they are not buying 2016-20 trends continuing,, or if Sexton just mispoke.

Two districts sound like an R version of Maryland. Stops Kelly but not much else.

[BoiseBoy]

We are getting a senate-created congressional map too.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1480978161194213380?s=20

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We are getting a senate-created congressional map too.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1480978161194213380?s=20

That tweet seems to have been deleted

[Coastal Elitist]

This article gives a decent idea of what the preferred plan by the senate might look like. The plan is to do a two way split of Davidson which is three districts with Green taking in some of Nashville along with 1/3 of Williamson, Rose taking in some of Nashville and Cooper's seat taking in some of Nashville and the rest of Williamson.

https://onthehill.tnjournal.net/threes-a-crowd-senate-gop-would-have-green-desjarlais-cooper-districts-meet-in-nashville/

Based on those descriptions I think it will look something like this:





Even though TN-7 is only Trump+18 there are no bad trends and it's safe along with all the other ones. Trump actually increased his margin of victory in all the Nashville districts and the PVIs all moved to the right as well

[Unelectable Bystander]

This article gives a decent idea of what the preferred plan by the senate might look like. The plan is to do a two way split of Davidson which is three districts with Green taking in some of Nashville along with 1/3 of Williamson, Rose taking in some of Nashville and Cooper's seat taking in some of Nashville and the rest of Williamson.

https://onthehill.tnjournal.net/threes-a-crowd-senate-gop-would-have-green-desjarlais-cooper-districts-meet-in-nashville/

Based on those descriptions I think it will look something like this:





Even though TN-7 is only Trump+18 there are no bad trends and it's safe along with all the other ones. Trump actually increased his margin of victory in all the Nashville districts and the PVIs all moved to the right as well

What’s up with the Nashville trends? Urban and rural shifts outweighing the suburban shifts? 59-38 still seems risky in a future wave if it turns into Austin. Then again, not everyone moving to Nashville is left-leaning

[lfromnj]

This article gives a decent idea of what the preferred plan by the senate might look like. The plan is to do a two way split of Davidson which is three districts with Green taking in some of Nashville along with 1/3 of Williamson, Rose taking in some of Nashville and Cooper's seat taking in some of Nashville and the rest of Williamson.

https://onthehill.tnjournal.net/threes-a-crowd-senate-gop-would-have-green-desjarlais-cooper-districts-meet-in-nashville/

Based on those descriptions I think it will look something like this:





Even though TN-7 is only Trump+18 there are no bad trends and it's safe along with all the other ones. Trump actually increased his margin of victory in all the Nashville districts and the PVIs all moved to the right as well

What’s up with the Nashville trends? Urban and rural shifts outweighing the suburban shifts? 59-38 still seems risky in a future wave if it turns into Austin. Then again, not everyone moving to Nashville is left-leaning

Well Nashville + Williamson +rutherford is only 1.6 districts so you got 2.4 worth of rurals or clarkesville

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This article gives a decent idea of what the preferred plan by the senate might look like. The plan is to do a two way split of Davidson which is three districts with Green taking in some of Nashville along with 1/3 of Williamson, Rose taking in some of Nashville and Cooper's seat taking in some of Nashville and the rest of Williamson.

https://onthehill.tnjournal.net/threes-a-crowd-senate-gop-would-have-green-desjarlais-cooper-districts-meet-in-nashville/

Based on those descriptions I think it will look something like this:





Even though TN-7 is only Trump+18 there are no bad trends and it's safe along with all the other ones. Trump actually increased his margin of victory in all the Nashville districts and the PVIs all moved to the right as well

What’s up with the Nashville trends? Urban and rural shifts outweighing the suburban shifts? 59-38 still seems risky in a future wave if it turns into Austin. Then again, not everyone moving to Nashville is left-leaning

Well Nashville + Williamson +rutherford is only 1.6 districts so you got 2.4 worth of rurals or clarkesville

Wilson, Sumner, and, to a growing extent, Maury (especially Northern Maury) should be considered suburban, but they didn't trend very hard in 2020.

Plus, this was about vote margin.  Trump actually basically broke even from 2016-2020 in Williamson County in terms of net vote margin (despite the percentage swing), for instance.

EDIT: Corrected it to say that those counties are suburban.  I'd previously typed rural by mistake.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1481301971135086592

Pretty much exactly what I was thinking of for this.