2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

[Former President tack50]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

If this really was a concern, wouldn't Republicans be designing a deliberate "fault line" (so think instead of 4 Trump+15 districts; 3 Trump+17 districts and a final Trump+10 district, or something like that)

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

If this really was a concern, wouldn't Republicans be designing a deliberate "fault line" (so think instead of 4 Trump+15 districts; 3 Trump+17 districts and a final Trump+10 district, or something like that)

That would be the most rational for the party- make TN-05 a Trump +10ish district they would be clearly favored in for 2022 and then only bring the others with GOP incumbents down to Trump +20 or so. 

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

Let me guess: you think Tennessee is only a conservative state because of abortion?

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

Let me guess: you think Tennessee is only a conservative state because of abortion?

Not statewide, but I think the Nashville suburbs go the way of the Austin suburbs the moment the issue is taken off the table, with a very fast statewide shift back to 55R/45D or so.

I expect a similar federal shift from the JBE voters in the NOLA suburbs and the Andy Beshear voters in the Kentucky suburbs.  Abortion is the #1 thing keeping culturally Southern suburbs from going Fairfax.

[Sol]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

Let me guess: you think Tennessee is only a conservative state because of abortion?

Not statewide, but I think the Nashville suburbs go the way of the Austin suburbs the moment the issue is taken off the table, with a very fast statewide shift back to 55R/45D or so.

I expect a similar federal shift from the JBE voters in the NOLA suburbs and the Andy Beshear voters in the Kentucky suburbs.  Abortion is the #1 thing keeping culturally Southern suburbs from going Fairfax.

See, but this is the thing--abortion will still be a political issue post Roe! If anything it will be a more contentious issue.

[Virginiá]

See, but this is the thing--abortion will still be a political issue post Roe! If anything it will be a more contentious issue.

Yeah, if this becomes a state issue, it's going to become extremely relevant to state and local elections. To southern white Republicans, voting in a Democratic government could mean repealing abortion bans. I'm not 100% on what role the federal government would play in this if SCOTUS decides to let states act, whether they could pass a national ban on/right to abortion. If so, abortion would indeed be even more of an issue than it is now. There would be massive pressure on the Republican Party to pass a national abortion ban, filibuster be damned. It would make it impossible to convince pro-life voters to vote for Democrats, particularly as long as the issue remained the prerogative of Congress/state legislatures.

I don't see how this issue is ever off the table, even if it was guaranteed by a constitutional amendment. At best, maybe at some point pro-lifers get what they want and most of them move on, aside from the more dedicated activists who push back against the inevitable pro-choice movement.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

Let me guess: you think Tennessee is only a conservative state because of abortion?

Not statewide, but I think the Nashville suburbs go the way of the Austin suburbs the moment the issue is taken off the table, with a very fast statewide shift back to 55R/45D or so.

I expect a similar federal shift from the JBE voters in the NOLA suburbs and the Andy Beshear voters in the Kentucky suburbs.  Abortion is the #1 thing keeping culturally Southern suburbs from going Fairfax.

Just because a voter votes for a Democrat once in a gubernatorial race does not mean they are otherwise liberal single-issue pro-life voters, especially when both JBE and Beshear only were able to amass the support they did due to extremely unpopular opponents. One can look to election results, local voting habits, and more for proof of this. For instance, we can see the conservatism of Williamson County, a suburb of Nashville, in its support for congressional candidates such as Martha Blackburn and Manny Sethi.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

Let me guess: you think Tennessee is only a conservative state because of abortion?

Not statewide, but I think the Nashville suburbs go the way of the Austin suburbs the moment the issue is taken off the table, with a very fast statewide shift back to 55R/45D or so.

I expect a similar federal shift from the JBE voters in the NOLA suburbs and the Andy Beshear voters in the Kentucky suburbs.  Abortion is the #1 thing keeping culturally Southern suburbs from going Fairfax.

Just because a voter votes for a Democrat once in a gubernatorial race does not mean they are otherwise liberal single-issue pro-life voters, especially when both JBE and Beshear only were able to amass the support they did due to extremely unpopular opponents. One can look to election results, local voting habits, and more for proof of this. For instance, we can see the conservatism of Williamson County, a suburb of Nashville, in its support for congressional candidates such as Martha Blackburn and Manny Sethi.

Williamson County only voted like 4 points to the right of the state in an abortion referendum in 2014 (it voted 3 points to the right of the state in 2020 presidential numbers), so I don't think you can say that abortion is the only thing keeping it Republican.

It's true that pro-life politics play better in highly evangelical Southern suburbs than they do in Northern suburbs (and that issue isn't responsible for trends in Southern suburbs), but it's vastly inaccurate to say that the Nashville suburbs will go blue as soon as they can do so without risking supporting abortion.

[BoiseBoy]

TN House Redistricting Committee has released their State House proposal:

https://twitter.com/tnhousegop/status/1471967141683503107?s=20

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NC5PhilWilliams/status/1472013305199808513

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Mark Green have enough allies in the legislature to stop an 8R-1D?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

TN House Redistricting Committee has released their State House proposal:

https://twitter.com/tnhousegop/status/1471967141683503107?s=20

Does anyone have a higher resolution version of this?  I couldn't tell which district I'd be in.

[ctherainbow]

TN House Redistricting Committee has released their State House proposal:

https://twitter.com/tnhousegop/status/1471967141683503107?s=20

Does anyone have a higher resolution version of this?  I couldn't tell which district I'd be in.

America Needs Reading Glasses?

[Oryxslayer]

TN House Redistricting Committee has released their State House proposal:

https://twitter.com/tnhousegop/status/1471967141683503107?s=20

Does anyone have a higher resolution version of this?  I couldn't tell which district I'd be in.

America Needs Reading Glasses?

In all seriousness,  there is several pdfs on the house committee page.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

Simultaneously baconmandering and pizzamandering Memphis and Nashville, respectively is theoretically possible but looks absolutely terrible and could lead to vulnerable districts in Democratic-leaning years if trends continue.  But, even absent the VRA, it's a lot easier to eliminate Cooper's seat than Cohen's.  That's because of both partisanship of the current seats and location within the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

Simultaneously baconmandering and pizzamandering Memphis and Nashville, respectively is theoretically possible but looks absolutely terrible and could lead to vulnerable districts in Democratic-leaning years if trends continue.  But, even absent the VRA, it's a lot easier to eliminate Cooper's seat than Cohen's.  That's because of both partisanship of the current seats and location within the state.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e3bf274e-9651-49aa-9225-fc5a8d43c10c
This is the cleanest 9R-0D map I can conjure at the moment.

[lfromnj]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

2 things make a Nashville crack easier at a political level

First of all it doesn't require any grand division crossing. Middle TN doesn't have to go with West besides the small population leftover.
Secondly the Nashville suburbs are all already cracked with rural areas

[patzer]

Here's a more out-there idea.

You can justify it by saying you're representing the TN black vote better by having the VRA seat include black-majority bits of Memphis, black-majority bits of Nashville, and black-majority rural areas.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fbd5418-a7f0-411d-9cbe-c914aafeda23

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another attempt at a clean and safe 8-1 TN. Davidson County is going to have to be split at least 3 ways, like in this map, however, you'll prolly want a 4th district to take in part of the general Nashville metro area just to be safe. Considering how fast Nashville is growing and it's blueifying, I think this is a decade rental and next decade they'll have to cede the seat back, especially if TN gains a 10th district. While Memphis would normally be able to be cracked due to depopulation, VRA likely saves it for at least another redistricting cycle or two assuming VRA isn't overturned.

VRA or no VRA, Memphis creates such huge margins for Ds that Rs cannot crack both it and Nashville at the same time, while also giving rural Rs the representation they desire.

2 things make a Nashville crack easier at a political level

First of all it doesn't require any grand division crossing. Middle TN doesn't have to go with West besides the small population leftover.
Secondly the Nashville suburbs are all already cracked with rural areas

And even if the numbers for a Memphis crack somehow exist, there's the problem that the Memphis burbs seem particularly inclined to be paired together. If split in two, they'd probably be outvoted by rural interests and they would not have their own member of Congress.

[Torie]

Here's a more out-there idea.

You can justify it by saying you're representing the TN black vote better by having the VRA seat include black-majority bits of Memphis, black-majority bits of Nashville, and black-majority rural areas.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fbd5418-a7f0-411d-9cbe-c914aafeda23

It is also illegal on the grounds of being a black pack where race rather than partisanship drew the lines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a more out-there idea.

You can justify it by saying you're representing the TN black vote better by having the VRA seat include black-majority bits of Memphis, black-majority bits of Nashville, and black-majority rural areas.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fbd5418-a7f0-411d-9cbe-c914aafeda23

It is also illegal on the grounds of being a black pack where race rather than partisanship drew the lines.

So it's as legal as the NC-01 that Rs had in their first gerrymander in the 2010s (that SCOTUS struck down).