Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[John Dule]

Let me tell you, when I was in town we were in town, in a town like places like this. We did the hard work and I did it before they did it, and that's how it got done. I used to come from a small place like this, back when I was a small town like this, and that's why I did it before you remember me. And that's the way it was.

Now listen to what I'm saying. I'm running for mayor, and I don't want anyone to not forget to remember it. I give it to you straight and I got it done. I came out from places like this, towns like these, and when I came back I went here. To this.

Vote for the other me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

The establishment should take some blame at the very least. Sure, the party seemed "leader-less" at one point in time but there were many other options the Democrats could've pushed to run. Instead, they insisted Biden would be the best choice. There were plenty of good reasons to skip over Biden. They were probably focusing too much on the general election while thinking Biden had this primary in the bag (I mean Biden certainly seemed to think so).

Now, Biden is fighting for his life to get a [decent] win in South Carolina, a state that was far more favorable to him than now, while having yet to drop a single ad for Super Tuesday after two horrible performances in IA and NH (he was polling well in both of those states, but he still uses demographics as an excuse) and a distant 2nd place in NV, a state he was widely expected win at one point. Even a win in SC still might not help him much for ST.

The expectations for Biden were probably higher than they should have been, I don't think anyone expected his communication skills to degrade how they did in his post-Vice Presidency years. Many probably thought that they were going to get 2012/2016 "Malarkey!" Biden. Those years in between sure took their toll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ukraine scandal took its toll on Biden, as well and it sidelined Jill Biden. Jill was out campaigning for Joe Biden and when the Ukraine scandal broke, women left Biden and moved to Bernie

[2016]

Did Joe Biden just say at the CNN Town Hall he wants to do away the 2nd Amendment or come close to it?

[UWS]

Did Joe Biden just say at the CNN Town Hall he wants to do away the 2nd Amendment or come close to it?

That means he would abolish the 2nd Amendment so that no one would have the right to wear fireweapons? If that's the case, it's an extreme position.

[2016]

The Ukraine scandal took its toll on Biden, as well and it sidelined Jill Biden. Jill was out campaigning for Joe Biden and when the Ukraine scandal broke, women left Biden and moved to Bernie

But wait, that was supposed Nancys Grand Masterplan to impeach Trump to help Biden and keep all these Senators in Washington. It didn't work.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Did Joe Biden just say at the CNN Town Hall he wants to do away the 2nd Amendment or come close to it?

That means he would abolish the 2nd Amendment so that no one would have the right to wear fireweapons? If that's the case, it's an extreme position.

Ownership of firearms would still be legal without the Second Amendment, just as regulation of firearms is technically legal with it. That's how it works in other countries and their gun culture isn't constrained by a reverence for a muddled, unclear Amendment in their Constitution. It's interpretation has changed many times in our history.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden campaign announces Super Tuesday ad campaign, but it's only six figures....meaning he's spending markedly less on ads in Super Tuesday states than any other candidate except for Gabbard.  (E.g., Klobuchar's spending $3.5 million just on TV ads.)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/biden-announces-six-figure-super-tuesday-ad-campaign/ar-BB10qRGC?ocid=st2

Joe Biden’s campaign is launching advertising in Super Tuesday states — but the small ad buy leaves the former vice president significantly outmatched by most of his Democratic rivals as 14 states prepare to vote on March 3.

The buy, details of which were shared first with POLITICO, primarily targets Southern states voting next week with ads touting the former vice president’s relationship with former President Barack Obama.

The campaign is airing a television ad that features Obama praising Biden in early 2017, when Obama awarded his right-hand man the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The ad will air in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia on shows and stations “that overperform with African American viewership,” according to the campaign — a constituency that Biden’s team believes remains a strength for their campaign and a decisive force in the Democratic nominating process.
.
.
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According to data compiled by Advertising Analytics, an ad tracking firm, Biden is spending by far the least on Super Tuesday TV ads out of all the candidates who participated in Tuesday night’s debate in South Carolina.

I guess the optimistic spin for Biden here is that some of the bottom polling candidates are spending themselves into oblivion on the hope that a polling miracle will happen, while Biden is conserving his $ because he actually expects to keep his campaign running all the way to the end of primary season?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The campaign is airing a television ad that features Obama praising Biden in early 2017, when Obama awarded his right-hand man the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The ad will air in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia on shows and stations “that overperform with African American viewership,” according to the campaign — a constituency that Biden’s team believes remains a strength for their campaign and a decisive force in the Democratic nominating process.

He's really pinning his whole candidacy on the South.

[Calthrina950]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

Another point is that Trump would have faced a nominee 14-23 years younger than him if he were being opposed by anyone of Klobuchar, Harris, Gillibrand, or Booker. That would have provided a sort of generational contrast, and a younger nominee, particularly someone like Booker, would have been able to better make the case to key elements of the Democratic coalition-particularly younger, minority, and female voters-and to infrequent voters. But instead, Trump will be facing a nominee older than himself-whether it be Sanders, Biden, or Bloomberg. Sanders will still be able to energize turnout and rally the base, obviously, but Biden and Bloomberg clearly do not have that ability. And by facing an older nominee, Trump's ability to outcampaign them is enhanced.

Putting Biden in a debate with Trump would be a disaster for the Democrats. Say what you will about Trump, but he's extremely energetic when you get him in front of a camera. That's why, despite being six years his senior, Trump was able to call Jeb Bush "low-energy" in 2016. He is an experienced showman and he knows how to handle a crowd. I cannot imagine Biden and his stumbling, slurred speech pattern keeping up with Trump in any capacity. He would look like a complete geezer next to him.

I certainly agree. It's obvious to me that Trump would outcampaign him and would also outflank him on the debate stage. In fact, it's hard for me to see any of the Democratic candidates being able to outmaneuver Trump. Sanders comes across as an "angry old man", and Trump would know how to get him riled up and sputtering things. Warren is easily provoked, and her calm intellectual demeanor would be at the breaking point the moment Trump called her "Pocahontas." Klobuchar would be shaking with anger as soon as he savaged her, and Buttigieg wouldn't be able to "out-interrupt" Trump, and would have nothing but platitudes to counter him. And Trump would absolutely destroy Bloomberg. Thus, no matter who the nominee is, the debates are unlikely to make that much of a difference.

[catographer]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

Another point is that Trump would have faced a nominee 14-23 years younger than him if he were being opposed by anyone of Klobuchar, Harris, Gillibrand, or Booker. That would have provided a sort of generational contrast, and a younger nominee, particularly someone like Booker, would have been able to better make the case to key elements of the Democratic coalition-particularly younger, minority, and female voters-and to infrequent voters. But instead, Trump will be facing a nominee older than himself-whether it be Sanders, Biden, or Bloomberg. Sanders will still be able to energize turnout and rally the base, obviously, but Biden and Bloomberg clearly do not have that ability. And by facing an older nominee, Trump's ability to outcampaign them is enhanced.

Putting Biden in a debate with Trump would be a disaster for the Democrats. Say what you will about Trump, but he's extremely energetic when you get him in front of a camera. That's why, despite being six years his senior, Trump was able to call Jeb Bush "low-energy" in 2016. He is an experienced showman and he knows how to handle a crowd. I cannot imagine Biden and his stumbling, slurred speech pattern keeping up with Trump in any capacity. He would look like a complete geezer next to him.

I certainly agree. It's obvious to me that Trump would outcampaign him and would also outflank him on the debate stage. In fact, it's hard for me to see any of the Democratic candidates being able to outmaneuver Trump. Sanders comes across as an "angry old man", and Trump would know how to get him riled up and sputtering things. Warren is easily provoked, and her calm intellectual demeanor would be at the breaking point the moment Trump called her "Pocahontas." Klobuchar would be shaking with anger as soon as he savaged her, and Buttigieg wouldn't be able to "out-interrupt" Trump, and would have nothing but platitudes to counter him. And Trump would absolutely destroy Bloomberg. Thus, no matter who the nominee is, the debates are unlikely to make that much of a difference.

On the upside for Democrats, we learned in 2016 that the debates don't really matter as much as we think (polling showed Clinton "won" most viewers).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Obama demands South Carolina TV stations pull misleading ad attacking Biden

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/obama-demands-south-carolina-tv-stations-pull-misleading-ad-attacking-biden/ar-BB10rfxh?ocid=spartandhp

(It is a WP article, but it is through MSN, so it should work even if you aren't subscirbed to the WP)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Obama demands South Carolina TV stations pull misleading ad attacking Biden

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/obama-demands-south-carolina-tv-stations-pull-misleading-ad-attacking-biden/ar-BB10rfxh?ocid=spartandhp

(It is a WP article, but it is through MSN, so it should work even if you aren't subscirbed to the WP)

It's such a weird ad.  The implied connection between the Obama audio excerpt and the words on the screen is hard to make out. The idea seems to be that Biden is an example of Democratic "plantation politics" - but are they expecting blacks to buy that Obama would consider this to be true of the party he led and the Vice President he picked?

[KaiserDave]

That Obama voice sounds like a bad imitation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is the fall guy, everything bad that happened during Obama years is blamed on Biden now. Obama is like Clinton to Democrats, and he isnt gonna be criticized for the bad parts of his administration,  but very much like Gore, Biden is the fall guy. Being a sloth doesnt help him, and neither did it help Gore

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

That Obama voice sounds like a bad imitation

I think they sped it up to fit in a 30 second ad.

[NOVA Green]

Biden is the fall guy, everything bad that happened during Obama years is blamed on Biden now. Obama is like Clinton to Democrats, and he isnt gonna be criticized for the bad parts of his administration,  but very much like Gore, Biden is the fall guy. Being a sloth doesnt help him, and neither did it help Gore

That's an interesting angle, which is something I hadn't really considered before within the context of the 2020 DEM PRIM (Presumably you are talking about the Primaries and not the GE).

Bolded your OP for emphasis....

I guess my initial question would be:

1.) What specific Obama policy initiatives is Biden taking the hit on?

2.) In any DEM PRIM there is a "push-pull" factor, meaning that '16 was the natural gap between the Obama Administration (including VP Biden) with a DEM PRIM, which was effectively a two person contest (HRC vs Sanders), which went down the wire to what was a much less than spectacular win for HRC in Cali, which in many ways foreshadowed the 2020 Sanders Coalition.

3.) If we look at shifts in DEM PRIM Coalitions and policies, one item in specific stands out where Biden *might* be taking a bit of a hit from Obama Policies. Specifically this would be the policy of larger scale deportations of Immigrants whose paperwork was out of status, for what were frequently offenses that would have gone down very differently for American Nationals, or those with official paperwork showing current residency status within the US.

When we lived in Houston back in the early 2010s, I posted on Atlas multiple times about how Obama was perceived as the "Deporter in Chief" among many Latinos within Tejas. Since me and my Wife did not have any friends or family close by within TX, our friends were predominately co-workers that we came to know over time, the majority of whom were Latinos.

4.) ACA "Obamacare" was extremely popular among the vast majority of Latinos within my work-place, where I was MGMT and the Company did not offer Health Insurance to certain job classifications.... Still, despite ACA the cost structure, plus tax penalties created issues for many working-class folks who had embraced ACA and then found it was much more expensive than they could afford.

I *suspect* this is part of the reason why M4A is so popular among many working-class Mexican-American and Latino-American DEM PRIM voters (Among many other demographics as well).

So there might be another example of where Biden might be facing some indirect blame for Obama policies that both expanded access, but simultaneously created expectations which did not match
la realidad that this was not a perfect solution to a much larger problem.

5.) Millennial Workers, especially those of lower education levels were disproportionately impacted by the Great Recession.

I remember back in down-state OR, it was hard for many of the young folks back in the late 2000's/ early 2010's to even get a fast-food job in many parts of the State, because there were older unemployed working-class folks that had been laid off with significant work experience and willing to take a major pay-cut just to get a (30) Hr week job at minimum wage.

Naturally this has disproportionately impacted many Communities of Color with Demographic Changes.

6.) Millennial Voters were one of Obama's strongest Demographic in '08, and in terms of age distribution is now effectively somewhat of a counterbalance to the Baby Boomers in terms of % of US POP.

Is it any wonder that Sanders holds such strong appeal among voters under the age of 35, and now looking like quite possibly DEM voters under the age of 45?

Can we blame Obama for not being able to deliver a sufficient package to recover from the aftermath of the Robber Baron Capitalists that gave us the Great Recession?

No---- in face Obama has addressed that directly in interviews somewhere in the Middle of his Presidency that he should have sunk more $$$ into the recovery and *pushed the Republicans harder* to give a bailout to working class Americans, as opposed to the "Bailouts" to the Financial Sector who played a major role in the Great Recession.

Thoughts???

You are onto something that Biden is taking a bit of a hit within the DEM electorate bcs Obama wasn't able to get as much done as he wanted to, and was blocked by the Tea Bagger PUBs in the House & Senate, but one might make an argument that Sanders created his own Political Opportunity Structure (POS) built a real coalition from the "wretched of the earth" (Sorry--- couldn't resist), that was dramatically expanded into the 2020 DEM PRIM, to the point where effectively the assumptions that the "DEM Elites" had going into 2020, was that "Uncle Joe" would be able to unify the Party quickly and represent a "frente popular" against DJT, but now their dreams are broken on the mirrors of coke donors from Wall Street, where now some are busy trying to shift around their "investments" between various Greyhounds as part of a dawg racing track....

[Illini Moderate]

He’s really hitting his groove. I hope it’s not too late. https://twitter.com/cnnpolitics/status/1232841187343699968?s=21

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024

Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024

Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

[wbrocks67]

The possibility of this makes me incredibly excited.

https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1233004571246632960

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's too late for money to save Biden on Super Tuesday.  The only thing that can rescue Biden is for a win that's so strong that it immediately labels him as the clear, obvious alternative to Sanders.  That way everyone who's still undecided and hasn't voted, or people who were hesitant on Joe and supporting Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar as an alternative, will swing back to his camp and give him enough votes to be viable in California, compete in Texas, and win Virginia.

A result like
Biden 45%
Steyer 18%
Sanders 16%
Buttigieg 9%
Gabbard 5%
Klobuchar 4%

would immediately say to everyone "Biden is the one."  If you are a Buttigieg or Klobuchar or Bloomberg supporter, that's wonderful, but if you care about stopping Sanders it's time to jump on the Biden train.

Even better would be a result like
Biden 45%
Sanders 15%
everyone else non-viable

or Sanders non-viable.  A 3-1 victory would give Joe a 30-delegate MOV and put him ahead of Sanders in the delegate count.  Certainly seeing Joe Biden in first place would have a huge effect on people.

I'm pessimistic though.  Biden still doesn't have any sort of ground game and he's underperformed thus far.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024
Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

Yes, but Super Tuesday is 3 days after SC.

[brucejoel99]

The possibility of this makes me incredibly excited.

https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1233004571246632960

Vice President Kamala Harris & Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, here we come!!

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024

Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

It’s still not a great sign that Biden has spent no money on Super Tuesday states. Ensuring a big win in South Carolina is important for his campaign (though admittedly one of his best states should have never been competitive in the first place). However, he lacks the organizational strength of his opponents who have been heavily campaigning in ST states for the past few weeks - namely Sanders and Bloomberg. Despite  the latter’s relative weakened position after the last two debates, the amount of money Bloomberg has thrown in should not be underestimated and polling has shown that he still maintains reasonably high support which should worry Biden.