Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[jaymichaud]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/BJdpmYCEL

Oof, so it’s confirmed?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235603523364171777

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.


EDIT: B&W has 33, which is a typo. They only allocated 119 seats

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235603523364171777

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.

That's not accurate. B&W ended up with 33

[Storr]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/BJdpmYCEL

Oof, so it’s confirmed?

The last sentence of the article: "Netanyahu on Wednesday slammed the draft law, saying that, "the move led by Gantz undermines democracy.""
Bibi gonna Bibi.

[Walmart_shopper]

Assuming that Lieberman puts his recommendation where his mouth is, Gantz will have the votes he needs to be tasked with forming a government even if the 3 Balad members of the Joint List refuse to recommend him.

[BP🌹]

can't wait for libs to act like everything wrong with israel has now been solved with bibi out of the picture

[Walmart_shopper]

So Lieberman will support the bill which would prevent anyone under indictment from forming a government. It will apply for the NEXT election, however, and not right now. I suppose it is designed to disincentivize new elections for the Likud, but I doubt that it does.

And, actually, it's not quite so clear that it will only apply to the next Knesset, because Lieberman apparently wants it to apply to this one. Honestly, if Lieberman is going full on Tommy Lapid, as it appears, then I just don't understand why he would object to a minority government backed by the Joint Lisr from outside if he gets the deep secular cleansing he has been clamoring for. I doubt his voters will care if Mahmoud Abbas himself supported the government sovlong as they finally have the right to marry, buy milk on Saturday, and see their aging parents get a more sustainable pension. In other words, the Joint List will give him in six months what in at least six years the Haredim never would. Take a win, Yvette. Sometimes good government does need a fifth column to stand upon.

[Walmart_shopper]

can't wait for libs to act like everything wrong with israel has now been solved with bibi out of the picture

Literally no libs act like this. It will take decades to clean up from the Bibist arson on Israeli civil society. But it's okay to feel a tiny bit encouraged by the opportunity to at least start the clean up

[CumbrianLefty]

can't wait for libs to act like everything wrong with israel has now been solved with bibi out of the picture

Literally no libs act like this. It will take decades to clean up from the Bibist arson on Israeli civil society. But it's okay to feel a tiny bit encouraged by the opportunity to at least start the clean up

Yes, this. He needs to go for anything even mildly good to happen.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is...interesting. Bogie Yalon, leader of the right wing Telem faction that is part of the three parties comprising Blue and White, says he supports forming a minority government backed by the Joint List. Yalon and Telem have long been seen as the biggest obstacle within Blue and White to a leftist minority government

Wow wow wow, as they say.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235603523364171777

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.


EDIT: B&W has 33, which is a typo. They only allocated 119 seats

After the election day spectacle they made of themselves, Israeli medis and pollsters need to self-quarantine for two weeks, according to the ministry of political health.

[jaymichaud]

This is...interesting. Bogie Yalon, leader of the right wing Telem faction that is part of the three parties comprising Blue and White, says he supports forming a minority government backed by the Joint List. Yalon and Telem have long been seen as the biggest obstacle within Blue and White to a leftist minority government

Wow wow wow, as they say.

Apparently he doesn’t want Balad so we’ll see how that goes down

[FrancoAgo]

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.

Are you sure? Was not at 36/37 seats in the exit poll?

[Oryxslayer]

So Bibi+ ends up 2 seats below the 'incredulously high' exit poll results.

Are you sure? Was not at 36/37 seats in the exit poll?

Bibi+ had 60 in the original exits, now it only has 58. Likud has only dropped by one, but their block did drop from the exits.

[BP🌹]

It's just that with the way Israel is discussed with America, you'd think that Israel's problems began with his premiership and will end when his premiership ends as well. And if I had a nickel for every time a hardcore Zionist told me, "I don't support Bibi", in an attempt to make them sound more reasonable than they actually are, I'd be a millionaire.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is...interesting. Bogie Yalon, leader of the right wing Telem faction that is part of the three parties comprising Blue and White, says he supports forming a minority government backed by the Joint List. Yalon and Telem have long been seen as the biggest obstacle within Blue and White to a leftist minority government

Wow wow wow, as they say.

Lol, thank you Amit Segal!

Anyway, I won't get excited until Lieberman agrees.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235633117542723584

[jaymichaud]

Even then they were literally on 60 seats following the April elections, so they’re worse off than they were a mere 7 months ago.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1235633117542723584

Wow wow wow.

So that's step one, at least.

[Walmart_shopper]

Some have described it as the Israeli Watergate, but a  story that was very much under-told this election was the systemic use of spying methods to gather dirt on Benny Gantz by the Likud. Channel 13 now reports that it is "almost inevitable" that a criminal investigation will be opened against those Likid officials involved in the spying.

[Velasco]

Bibi calls victory among Zionists, because ''Arabs are not part of the equation''

 ''Netanyahu also says that bid to pass law barring indicted person from forming coalition, which he claims Gantz is behind, 'undermines foundations of democracy'''

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/.premium-netanyahu-declares-victory-among-zionists-because-arabs-not-part-of-the-equation-1.8630286

Another interesting headline in Haaretz says the centre-left was victim of Bibi's aggressiveness and its own complacency

Bibi is undoubtedly awful in every respect, but his mastery in trolling amazes me

[Walmart_shopper]

The right wing is in absolute meltdown right now. It started with Amit Segal's weird interview with Ilana Dayan and has only gone downhill from there as the day's events have unfolded. "Victory" has suddenly turned to desperation on the right.

Let me just say that there are many good, decent right wingers in Israel. I really believe that. But the last time a left wing leader joined with Arabs to carve a new way for the country he was murdered, and Bibi Netanyahu was the one inciting the right wing opposition at the time. The way that the right has demonized the Joint List and now Liberman and Gantz is actually therefore scary.

The irony is that if the right were really concerned about the country's future they'd throw Bibi overboard and we would have a broad center-right government by Monday. Years of right wing abuse drove Arabs to the polls and now they are reaping the rewards of democracy.

[jaymichaud]

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2020_q1/Article-c60ef7a0d3ca071027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1898243326

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/2020_q1/Article-c60ef7a0d3ca071027.htm?sCh=3d385dd2dd5d4110&pId=1898243326

Translation- "Liberman in personal conversations: the goal is to sent Netanyahu home".

[America Needs R'hllor]

Just compared the election results from last time to this time in my city (periphery town, Arab-Jewish, the Jews are split half Russians half Moroccans basically so very right wing):
1. The Arab part increased the turnout, increasing from 2340 to 2755 votes
2. Likud rose from 3253 to 3768 (first place), while Yamina went down from 650 to 570, Shas from 697 to 669, Otzma from 186 to 35 (!) and Yisrael Beiteinu from 2340 to 2142 (so Likud increased from these votes and a small amount of new voters, but new voters were mostly Arabs probably). Worrying sign for Lieberman, the Russians are seeping off. Also I saw a ton of Otzma signs, they must have the biggest signs to votes ratio.
3. KL went up from 1164 to 1203- probably from the left voters
4. But the left lists together (284 for Labour Gesher and 184 for Democratic Camp) decreased much more than KL gained, now earning 265, less than Labour Gesher got alone). This means that Orly-Amir DID get some periphery voters who now moved to Likud\didn't vote
5. UTJ rose from 105 to 143- the Haredim in the city are increasing folks (but also probably some Otzma voters)
6. Overall turnout increase is 62.54%->63.65%, so with the Arabs rising by hundreds of votes I doubt Likud got a lot of new voters here. It means, to me, that they still have some substantial untapped resources of non-voters