Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[America Needs R'hllor]

Are the double envelopes included in the current 99.8% reporting? Because if so it was fast this time.

[Walmart_shopper]

Are the double envelopes included in the current 99.8% reporting? Because if so it was fast this time.

Yes.

So results are not likely to change.

[Walmart_shopper]

If anyone needed proof how deeply tied the media here is the Netanyahu's success, there is no clearee example than the last week. First the recording witg Gantz's advisor lovingly dropped into the sweaty palms of Amit Segal. Then an ecstatic rush to declare the election is historic win for Netanyahu (the headlines were amazing), followed by  a more sober conversation about the shape of the next Netanyahu government as though Bibi as PM were a fait accompli. Even Haaretz was screaming about how resounding Bibi's victory had been.

This is not pollsters' fault. The irresponsible predictions of "seeing things we've not seen in a long time" by exit pollsters was obviously wrong.  But polls were right. The problem is how easily the media is dazzled by the narrative of King Bibi. Gantz didn't win anything, of course. Somehow the cadre of journalists didn't bother to notice the fact that a Gantz loss does not exclude the possibility of a Netanyahu loss.

[Walmart_shopper]

What is amazing to me is the fact that the opposition parties are willing to go to extra-constitutional measures to depose Bibi but they won't just find a way to agree to something that allows a government to be formed and a costly fourth election to be avoided. It is totally possible for a good government to include both Lieberman and the Joint List. There are many pressing issues that such a government can and should address. But the egos and ideologies are making that seem impossible, at a great cost to our democracy and our economic health.

[America Needs R'hllor]

If anyone needed proof how deeply tied the media here is the Netanyahu's success, there is no clearee example than the last week. First the recording witg Gantz's advisor lovingly dropped into the sweaty palms of Amit Segal. Then an ecstatic rush to declare the election is historic win for Netanyahu (the headlines were amazing), followed by  a more sober conversation about the shape of the next Netanyahu government as though Bibi as PM were a fait accompli. Even Haaretz was screaming about how resounding Bibi's victory had been.

This is not pollsters' fault. The irresponsible predictions of "seeing things we've not seen in a long time" by exit pollsters was obviously wrong.  But polls were right. The problem is how easily the media is dazzled by the narrative of King Bibi. Gantz didn't win anything, of course. Somehow the cadre of journalists didn't bother to notice the fact that a Gantz loss does not exclude the possibility of a Netanyahu loss.

Yeah, it was embarrassing.

At this point, the best things to do is either quickly pass a law preventing Netanyahu from being PM and then forming a unity government with a Netanyahu-less Likud, or form a minority government of KL-LGM with outside support from Lieberman and the JL (a huge stretch but if Lieberman won't support a Netanyahu-lead government he should put his money where his mouth is). A 4th election is too big a risk- there are still 7 seats from YB that Likud could snatch, and still voters who could turn out in anger to "finish it" and make Bibi PM. Sure, the Arabs could still turn out more, and it would be nice if the goddamn Tel Avivians moved their arses, but it's too big a risk.

[Walmart_shopper]

If anyone needed proof how deeply tied the media here is the Netanyahu's success, there is no clearee example than the last week. First the recording witg Gantz's advisor lovingly dropped into the sweaty palms of Amit Segal. Then an ecstatic rush to declare the election is historic win for Netanyahu (the headlines were amazing), followed by  a more sober conversation about the shape of the next Netanyahu government as though Bibi as PM were a fait accompli. Even Haaretz was screaming about how resounding Bibi's victory had been.

This is not pollsters' fault. The irresponsible predictions of "seeing things we've not seen in a long time" by exit pollsters was obviously wrong.  But polls were right. The problem is how easily the media is dazzled by the narrative of King Bibi. Gantz didn't win anything, of course. Somehow the cadre of journalists didn't bother to notice the fact that a Gantz loss does not exclude the possibility of a Netanyahu loss.

Yeah, it was embarrassing.

At this point, the best things to do is either quickly pass a law preventing Netanyahu from being PM and then forming a unity government with a Netanyahu-less Likud, or form a minority government of KL-LGM with outside support from Lieberman and the JL (a huge stretch but if Lieberman won't support a Netanyahu-lead government he should put his money where his mouth is). A 4th election is too big a risk- there are still 7 seats from YB that Likud could snatch, and still voters who could turn out in anger to "finish it" and make Bibi PM. Sure, the Arabs could still turn out more, and it would be nice if the Tel Avivians moved their arses, but it's too big a risk.

Somebody should actually do a case study on the cognitive dissonance required to be a secular, liberal Tel Aviv non-voter. In most of the world these are the wealthy, educated people with basic liberties at stake who turn out the most. How Tel Aviv can bary get 60% turnout is mind-boggling. We all talk about the TLV bubble, but I wonder if we shouldn't think of it as Plato's cave or the Matrix.

[Hnv1]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

[Walmart_shopper]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

It's hard to call 62 seats--a majority--losers. They wouldn't  have the votes if they had lost. If people wanted to keep Bibi in power they had several right wing parties to choose from that promised to do exactly that. A majority instead chose parties that oppose Bibi. That's how it goes.

That said, though, I would much prefer the opposition form a government before woreying about a legislation. Lawmaking should be uaed to better the country not get an advantage in post-election coalition negotiations. Grow up, form a Gantz-led coalition, and only then rewrite the law so that people like Netanyahu cannot subvert our democracy for personal gain.

[Hnv1]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

It's hard to call 62 seats--a majority--losers. They wouldn't  have the votes if they had lost. If people wanted to keep Bibi in power they had several right wing parties to choose from that promised to do exactly that. A majority instead chose parties that oppose Bibi. That's how it goes.

That said, though, I would much prefer the opposition form a government before woreying about a legislation. Lawmaking should be uaed to better the country not get an advantage in post-election coalition negotiations. Grow up, form a Gantz-led coalition, and only then rewrite the law so that people like Netanyahu cannot subvert our democracy for personal gain.

all of that aside, you're not going to give mass constitutional theory lessons to the general public. it looks bad.

If they want they should declare a list of constitutional reforms going to the 4th election, and then it will be a quasi plebiscite

[cp]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

What amendments are they proposing?

Unrelatedly, a strange point of comparison occurred to me this morning. This result is akin to the one a lot of pessimistic Labourites in the UK were hoping/expecting would happen last December: the right wing wins but too narrowly to break the deadlock, leading to at least the possibility of changes of leadership at the top of both parties.

[Hnv1]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

What amendments are they proposing?

Unrelatedly, a strange point of comparison occurred to me this morning. This result is akin to the one a lot of pessimistic Labourites in the UK were hoping/expecting would happen last December: the right wing wins but too narrowly to break the deadlock, leading to at least the possibility of changes of leadership at the top of both parties.

Amending article 18 of the basic-law government saying an indicted MK cannot be given a manadate (or act) as a PM. beyond the legal and democratic complications this is just political suicide. think of impeachment times 20

[jaymichaud]

Sure enough, KL is now advancing a bill that would effectively force Netanyahu to resign. The Joint List signalled that they would be happy to be a part of a majority supporting the bill.

Let me introduce you

To my party people

In the cluuuub

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman is also planning to back the bill to give Bibi the boot. So it should be okayed if it survives a legal challenge. This is not a bad idea if they've already got a deal with the Likud after Netanyahu is gone, but if we are just going to a fourth election this is a pointless move that should not replace a left wing Gantz-led government.

[Walmart_shopper]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

It's hard to call 62 seats--a majority--losers. They wouldn't  have the votes if they had lost. If people wanted to keep Bibi in power they had several right wing parties to choose from that promised to do exactly that. A majority instead chose parties that oppose Bibi. That's how it goes.

That said, though, I would much prefer the opposition form a government before woreying about a legislation. Lawmaking should be uaed to better the country not get an advantage in post-election coalition negotiations. Grow up, form a Gantz-led coalition, and only then rewrite the law so that people like Netanyahu cannot subvert our democracy for personal gain.

all of that aside, you're not going to give mass constitutional theory lessons to the general public. it looks bad.

If they want they should declare a list of constitutional reforms going to the 4th election, and then it will be a quasi plebiscite

I don't think you have to lecture the public about anything. What's so hard about: "thanks to the support of a majority of the voters of Israel and their vote for government free of the stain of corruption we will legislate to prevent anyone under indictment from becoming the prime minister"? Literally nobody will be surprised because that was really the only issue that was campaigned on. Now is not the time to get prissy about obscure constitutional norms, and if this really does violate the basoc law then we will all have the good pleasure of watching the right wing forced to petition the Supreme Court seekimg respite from majoritarian rule under the canopy of the basic law. It's worth it just to see that great spectacle of supreme irony.

[America Needs R'hllor]

B&W talking about amending the basic-law. political suicide, it will lead to a fourth election where Bibi will win a landslide, people hate sour losers.

It's hard to call 62 seats--a majority--losers. They wouldn't  have the votes if they had lost. If people wanted to keep Bibi in power they had several right wing parties to choose from that promised to do exactly that. A majority instead chose parties that oppose Bibi. That's how it goes.

That said, though, I would much prefer the opposition form a government before woreying about a legislation. Lawmaking should be uaed to better the country not get an advantage in post-election coalition negotiations. Grow up, form a Gantz-led coalition, and only then rewrite the law so that people like Netanyahu cannot subvert our democracy for personal gain.

all of that aside, you're not going to give mass constitutional theory lessons to the general public. it looks bad.

If they want they should declare a list of constitutional reforms going to the 4th election, and then it will be a quasi plebiscite

I don't think you have to lecture the public about anything. What's so hard about: "thanks to the support of a majority of the voters of Israel and their vote for government free of the stain of corruption we will legislate to prevent anyone under indictment from becoming the prime minister"? Literally nobody will be surprised because that was really the only issue that was campaigned on. Now is not the time to get prissy about obscure constitutional norms, and if this really does violate the basoc law then we will all have the good pleasure of watching the right wing forced to petition the Supreme Court seekimg respite from majoritarian rule under the canopy of the basic law. It's worth it just to see that great spectacle of supreme irony.

Yeah, it's time for the anti-Bibi camp to stop being so cautious. The right never has any shame, and this doesn't come close to the amount of times the right wanted to amend the laws to fit their political needs- increasing the number of Ministers, playing with reducing and increasing the threshold, floating a law to make it easier for defectors... Just do anything to remove Netanyahu and form a government.

[jaymichaud]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

[Walmart_shopper]

The rumor has been that Orly Levy was offered health minister AND giving to her dad the presidency to defect to a Bibi government. Amir Peretz was apparently also offered the presidency

[CumbrianLefty]

The media really is broken all over the world, isn't it?

[America Needs R'hllor]

The rumor has been that Orly Levy was offered health minister AND giving to her dad the presidency to defect to a Bibi government. Amir Peretz was apparently also offered the presidency

She said there aren't any talks + adding her father's name to the mix is insanity.

[DC Al Fine]

The rumor has been that Orly Levy was offered health minister AND giving to her dad the presidency to defect to a Bibi government. Amir Peretz was apparently also offered the presidency

I'm kind of amazed at the discipline here. Back in 2005 Paul Martin managed to bribe one half of a Tory power couple to jump ship and dump her boyfriend for a cabinet spot, to save his government

[Walmart_shopper]

The rumor has been that Orly Levy was offered health minister AND giving to her dad the presidency to defect to a Bibi government. Amir Peretz was apparently also offered the presidency

I'm kind of amazed at the discipline here. Back in 2005 Paul Martin managed to bribe one half of a Tory power couple to jump ship and dump her boyfriend for a cabinet spot, to save his government

Yes, I thought the same thing. But Bibi has built an empire on destroying his opponents. I can understand why they don't feel inclined to bail him out now.

[Hnv1]

Why is no one talking about the fact The Jewish Home went from 12 seats to 1 in just five years?

Because they’re at 6, Yamina is of the same composition of the old JH. But yeah they failed big time regardless

[BP🌹]

I see chaos as a victory too.

[Walmart_shopper]

Wait, Netanyahu announces, you're looking at this all wrong. I did win, and I won big. My bloc got 58 seats and Gantz only got 47. That's a solid majority of the Knesset. What about the Joint List, you ask. "The terror supporters aren't in the picture." They don't count. 

He said the same thing in September, of course. Which only helped create the historic result for the Joint List two nights ago. And it is clear that in the hate-filled little world of the Israeli far right it really would be a better, more pristine country if Arab votes didn't count. But Arab Israelis know better than that. They know that, at least for now, an Arab vote is as good as a Jewish one, and that only by staying homr on election day can that core democratic reality be done away with. So they voted. They voted, in many places, at a 70 to 80 percent turnout. They earned their chosen party three extra mandates--the exact number Bibi's phantom majority is missing. Of course Bibi is trying to delegitimize their achievement, then. After all, if Gantz and his allies have the courage to honor the mandate given by voters, that achievement will be Netanyahu's political death. That those most responsible for his fall will he those he spent a career anathemizing will be one of the sweetest and most hopeful moments in this country's short history.

The future in Israel is too often marked by the shadowy gloom of conflict and injustice. This, though, is an unmistakeable bright spot. A very small one, but it gives just enough light to see a more cooperative, hopeful future based on building bridges rather than walls.

[Walmart_shopper]

I see chaos as a victory too.

I guess I just don't understand why a weak, balkanized, conflict-ridden, and marginally theocratic Jewish state that tramples the rights of minorities can possibly ever be a good thing for the Arabs you claim to care so deeply about. By framing "Israel" entirely within a Jewish nationalist framework, as though the large minority of Arab Israelis were merely marginal to the state, you are literally doing the same thing as right wing zealots who refuse to recognise the integral Arab connection to the state.