Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

They are pretty dissimilar.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is Shas running, hopefully they will return to their leftist roots but that's a pipedream.

Shas has no leftist roots. Deri’i being moderate and then sitting with Labour to jog on government cash doesn’t put them to the left. Their voters are actually very to the right and wouldn’t take aligning with the left well.

Deri used to be well to the left on economic issues, got a decent number of Arab votes, and Shas was a fairly vigorous proponent of Oslo. So at one point Shas was truly left wing on some key issues. Now they are just theocratic Bibi-ists. The change happened when Yishai took over after Deri went to jail.

[Hnv1]

Is Shas running, hopefully they will return to their leftist roots but that's a pipedream.

Shas has no leftist roots. Deri’i being moderate and then sitting with Labour to jog on government cash doesn’t put them to the left. Their voters are actually very to the right and wouldn’t take aligning with the left well.

Deri used to be well to the left on economic issues, got a decent number of Arab votes, and Shas was a fairly vigorous proponent of Oslo. So at one point Shas was truly left wing on some key issues. Now they are just theocratic Bibi-ists. The change happened when Yishai took over after Deri went to jail.

Well I actually remember those days and they weren’t left on economics, supporting government spending to benefit your sector isn’t “left”. Deri’i wasn’t a proponent of Oslo, he was willing to support but he wasn’t in the peace camp, merely pragmatic, like saying Meridor was leftist. Coincidental agreement with the left doesn’t make you leftist.
On all other issues Shas were always firmly to the right. It’s the historic revisionism that paints Sephardi as more moderate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

They are pretty dissimilar.

I thought they were fairly similar due to large numbers of Eastern European migration and, later, Russians? Enlighten me.

[Walmart_shopper]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

They are pretty dissimilar.

I thought they were fairly similar due to large numbers of Eastern European migration and, later, Russians? Enlighten me.

Only a small segment of the population is Eastern European, and many of them have been absorbed into the political mainstream anyway. Israeli politics are not defined by their orientation towards Soviet occupation and the years following it, as in Poland, Czechia, etc. Israel is an incredibly diverse place, unlike Eastern Europe, and our politics are especially oriented around tribal identity, around ethnic, cultural, and religious divisions (and not East vs West, strictly speaking). It's also a much more vigorously democratic and liberal (even with the structural racism) polity. It simply doesn't have the cynicism of Eastern European politics (yet--we are getting there). There is a libertarian streak to Israeli politics that is decidedly Western, yet a sectarianism more common in the Middle East. Think Belgium + Lebanon + Argentina and you have something approximating our politics. Israeli politics are all at once the most vibrant and exciting and depressing anywhere.

[Walmart_shopper]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

[jaymichaud]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Pretty idiotic move if true, we all know how fickle politics can be. Likud were topping the polls immediately after the April election but crashed and burned to the point they were barely getting 30 seats before September, and the same happened to B&W the following election cycle.

Don’t see Lapid and Lieberman joining forces, though. They have pretty much nothing in common on paper except like... Zionism and secularism. I can see Yesh-Telem staying together otoh.

[Continential]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

Who in the f***ing world would think that siding with Hendal and Hauser is a good idea.

[jaymichaud]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

Who in the f***ing world would think that siding with Hendal and Hauser is a good idea.

This too. Much like Orly Levy, their careers are done if no one takes them but they really aren’t worth saving.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

Who in the f***ing world would think that siding with Hendal and Hauser is a good idea.

Yeah... A couple who literally blocked their party's leader from the highest office in the land? No one with brains would take them in.

[jaymichaud]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

They are pretty dissimilar.

I thought they were fairly similar due to large numbers of Eastern European migration and, later, Russians? Enlighten me.

Lol we wanted to get out of the hellhole that is the former USSR to get away from political instability, not import it.

[Walmart_shopper]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

Right.

I guess when Israeli politics these days boils down to how much power you want to give:

1.) Bibi and
2.) the Haredim

you're bound to get some strange alliances.

[Walmart_shopper]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Pretty idiotic move if true, we all know how fickle politics can be. Likud were topping the polls immediately after the April election but crashed and burned to the point they were barely getting 30 seats before September, and the same happened to B&W the following election cycle.

Don’t see Lapid and Lieberman joining forces, though. They have pretty much nothing in common on paper except like... Zionism and secularism. I can see Yesh-Telem staying together otoh.

But secularism is not nothing these days, especially in the midst of a pandemic fueled locally by Haredi dysfunction.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Sefy Handler thinks that Bibi is leaning against a unity agreement. Perhaps he is tempted by polling show the immunity bloc with a majority. Rumors are swirling that Lapid and Liberman may try to form a new secularist center-right party, perhaps with Hauser and Hendal, which would definitely shake things up. If we do indeed go to a fourth election it is going to be crazier than anything we've seen before, and I suspect the polls today will look laughably inadequate four months from now.

Literally what

Right.

I guess when Israeli politics these days boils down to how much power you want to give:

1.) Bibi and
2.) the Haredim

you're bound to get some strange alliances.

Drek Eretz kept blocking a government without Bibi and the Haredim though. The only way to form such a government is without them and with outside support from the Arabs, doesn't make sense to me to give them a lifeline.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I suppose its all more or less the same due to the margin of error, but in the latest Channel 12 poll if you look at the percentages of the parties below threshold, Labor is polling less than each of Derekh Eretz, Gesher, Otzma

Talk about a fall from grace...

Also, why is Derekh Eretz running separately? I thought they were staying in the Blue and White alliance - or has Gantz realized they are dead weight who don't add anything, and have thrown them to the curb?

It's just the polls. Neither Labour, nor Gesher, not Drek are going to run separately, but since they haven't announced anything official yet the pollsters have to treat them as such. Hopefully Drek are thrown out, but Gantz probably has to keep them close until the next election is announced so that they don't defect.

[Hnv1]

I still expect the Supreme Court to disqualify Netanyahu as PM, and the main parties seem to tqke that very seriously as well, so we may be going to a fourth election no matter what happens with the blocs.

I don’t see a reason for any party that’s not Likud, Shas and UTJ to be against this. If any politician isn’t then they deserve to go too tbh.

Apparently the whole unity bid has been on ice over Netanyahu's concern that the Court will indeed disqualify him. They wanted Gantz to change the basic law to prevent that, Gantz said no, but they did get him to promise an automatic new election if Bagatz does go the way I think they will.

I am not actually entirely opposed to a unity deal if KL can squeeze Likud for key ministries (like Education) and especially if Yamina is kept out of the government. I suppose it comes down to whether you beleve that Netanyahu or the Israeli right is a graver threat to our political future. Bibi is bad, but the apocalyptic ideology of the religious right, driven by an insane ethno-supremacist religious movement, has always made my skin crawl more than anything. Bennet and Shaked are just upper class Ashkenazi Likudniks, so they aren't really all that bad. Like the Rubios of the American right. But the Smotrichs and religious settler leaders are absolutely terrifying. So stealing the government out of their hands and jolting it back to the left is really tempting, especially if Netanyahu will be ensured to face a judge for his alleged crimes.

Likud as a center-right/right wing conservative party? No. Likud as a corrupt, divisive, mafia-esque Fidesz lite? 100%.

Fair point.

And it's not as though Isreali politics in general is that dissimilar from Eastern Europe's either.

They are pretty dissimilar.

I thought they were fairly similar due to large numbers of Eastern European migration and, later, Russians? Enlighten me.

Only a small segment of the population is Eastern European, and many of them have been absorbed into the political mainstream anyway. Israeli politics are not defined by their orientation towards Soviet occupation and the years following it, as in Poland, Czechia, etc. Israel is an incredibly diverse place, unlike Eastern Europe, and our politics are especially oriented around tribal identity, around ethnic, cultural, and religious divisions (and not East vs West, strictly speaking). It's also a much more vigorously democratic and liberal (even with the structural racism) polity. It simply doesn't have the cynicism of Eastern European politics (yet--we are getting there). There is a libertarian streak to Israeli politics that is decidedly Western, yet a sectarianism more common in the Middle East. Think Belgium + Lebanon + Argentina and you have something approximating our politics. Israeli politics are all at once the most vibrant and exciting and depressing anywhere.

I actually think it's quite an apt comparison. Israel also has a strong emphasis of the ethnos, re-surging religion, contempt of the foreign, and a widespread common believe on the supremacy of the executive branch.

the only difference is the leftist elite which is somehow a counter balance you don't find in eastern Europe.

I think Turkey is more similar though

[jaymichaud]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.

It appears to be going up in flames.

A #4 coming right up.

[jaymichaud]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.

It appears to be going up in flames.

A #4 coming right up.

What a sh**tshow.

Not serious parties, not serious party leaders etc. etc. etc.

[The Mikado]

How will walking out on the right bloc in the coalition negotiations affect Yamina, if at all?

[CumbrianLefty]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.

It appears to be going up in flames.

A #4 coming right up.

If election #3 was "Madness" what on earth should we call #4??

[brucejoel99]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.

It appears to be going up in flames.

A #4 coming right up.

If election #3 was "Madness" what on earth should we call #4??

Israeli General Election IV - A New Hope?

[The Mikado]

Likud/B&W talks are resuming- mandate ends shortly.

It appears to be going up in flames.

A #4 coming right up.

If election #3 was "Madness" what on earth should we call #4??

Israeli General Election IV - A New Hope?

Does that make Gantz Anakin Skywalker/Darth Vader?

"You were the Chosen One! You were supposed to destroy the Likud, not join them!"

[Hnv1]

Chapter IV would be “Sisyphus’ Rock”