Obama-Obama-Trump counties that trended D in 2012 (user search)
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  Obama-Obama-Trump counties that trended D in 2012 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Obama-Obama-Trump counties that trended D in 2012  (Read 2358 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: December 26, 2019, 09:04:32 AM »
« edited: December 26, 2019, 10:27:56 AM by mathstatman »

I'll attempt a non-snarky response to this well-researched question (though I can't figure out the rationale behind the ordering of the counties).

The only region conspicuously absent is the West (Pacific as well as Mountain).

I'm going to guess: (1) Obama's Hurricane Sandy bounce; (2) Trump's resonating with residents of New York State (but not NYC itself, except for Staten Island); (3) an abundance of Sanders primary supporters who voted 3rd party in the GE-- particularly those who voted Obama in 2012 and were too young to vote in '08.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,637
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2019, 10:27:19 AM »

Well done!

So the question now, fellas, becomes which of these counties remain TRUMP counties in 2020?

And in case anybody was wondering, there were six McCain - Romney - Clinton counties -- one of which was my homebase Fort Bend County.  
I'd say most such counties that went for Trump by less than 2% (in the Northeast) or 3% (in the Midwest) will flip. In the South, I predict Martin, NC will flip.
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