Obama-Obama-Trump counties that trended D in 2012
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  Obama-Obama-Trump counties that trended D in 2012
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Author Topic: Obama-Obama-Trump counties that trended D in 2012  (Read 2292 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
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Junior Chimp
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« on: December 04, 2019, 04:45:17 PM »

These are all interesting case studies:

Thurston County, Nebraska 2016: 5.94% R 2012: 13.91% D 2008: 6.96% D
Seneca County, New York 2016: 11.01% R 2012: 9.08% D 2008: 2.60% D
Oswego County, New York 2016: 21.99% R 2012: 7.93% D 2008: 2.44% D
Essex County, New York 2016: 1.14% R 2012: 18.77% D 2008: 13.32% D
Franklin County, New York 2016: 5.45% R 2012: 26.07% D 2008: 22.23% D
Barnwell County, South Carolina 2016: 5.16% R 2012: 5.33% D 2008: 1.65% D
Robeson County, North Carolina 2016: 4.27% R 2012: 17.41% D 2008: 13.78% D
Dooly County, Georgia 2016: 2.05% R 2012: 6.98% D 2008: 3.53% D
Cayuga County, New York 2016: 11.64% R 2012: 11.40% D 2008: 8.48% D
Rensselaer County, New York 2016: 1.41% R 2012: 12.19% D 2008: 9.34% D
Chickasaw County, Mississippi 2016: 6.06% R 2012: 4.52% D 2008: 2.13% D
Chester County, South Carolina 2016: 4.83% R 2012: 10.58% D 2008: 8.30% D
Panola County, Mississippi 2016: 0.12% R 2012: 8.62% D 2008: 6.52% D
Hidalgo County, New Mexico 2016: 6.73% R 2012: 4.96% D 2008: 2.92% D
Twiggs County, Georgia 2016: 1.58% R 2012: 8.64% D 2008: 6.97% D
Buckingham County, Virginia 2016: 11.28% R 2012: 2.43% D 2008: 0.87% D
Orange County, New York 2016: 5.50% R 2012: 5.65% D 2008: 4.13% D
Richmond County, North Carolina 2016: 9.74% R 2012: 2.95% D 2008: 1.50% D
Quitman County, Georgia 2016: 10.92% R 2012: 9.04% D 2008: 7.90% D
Washington County, New York 2016: 18.40% R 2012: 1.90% D 2008: 0.81% D
Alexander County, Illinois 2016: 8.30% R 2012: 13.65% D 2008: 12.62% D
Calhoun County, South Carolina 2016: 2.83% R 2012: 4.31% D 2008: 3.55% D
Peach County, Georgia 2016: 2.91% R 2012: 7.48% D 2008: 6.75% D
Washington County, Maine 2016: 18.44% R 2012: 1.60% D 2008: 1.01% D
Trumbull County, Ohio 2016: 6.22% R 2012: 23.00% D 2008: 22.43% D
St. Lawrence County, New York 2016: 8.82% R 2012: 16.71% D 2008: 16.33% D
Kent County, Rhode Island 2016: 0.67% R 2012: 17.74% D 2008: 17.40% D
Muscatine County, Iowa 2016: 6.26% R 2012: 15.88% D 2008: 15.64% D
Union County, Iowa 2016: 27.49% R 2012: 3.86% D 2008: 3.70% D
Madison County, New York 2016: 14.20% R 2012: 0.89% D 2008: 0.87% D
Martin County, North Carolina 2016: 0.43% R 2012: 4.65% D 2008: 4.64% D
Marshall County, Iowa 2016: 8.31% R 2012: 9.36% D 2008: 9.35% D

What exactly happened in far upstate NY and frontier New England?
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2019, 04:58:53 PM »

These are all interesting case studies:

Thurston County, Nebraska 2016: 5.94% R 2012: 13.91% D 2008: 6.96% D
Seneca County, New York 2016: 11.01% R 2012: 9.08% D 2008: 2.60% D
Oswego County, New York 2016: 21.99% R 2012: 7.93% D 2008: 2.44% D
Essex County, New York 2016: 1.14% R 2012: 18.77% D 2008: 13.32% D
Franklin County, New York 2016: 5.45% R 2012: 26.07% D 2008: 22.23% D
Barnwell County, South Carolina 2016: 5.16% R 2012: 5.33% D 2008: 1.65% D
Robeson County, North Carolina 2016: 4.27% R 2012: 17.41% D 2008: 13.78% D
Dooly County, Georgia 2016: 2.05% R 2012: 6.98% D 2008: 3.53% D
Cayuga County, New York 2016: 11.64% R 2012: 11.40% D 2008: 8.48% D
Rensselaer County, New York 2016: 1.41% R 2012: 12.19% D 2008: 9.34% D
Chickasaw County, Mississippi 2016: 6.06% R 2012: 4.52% D 2008: 2.13% D
Chester County, South Carolina 2016: 4.83% R 2012: 10.58% D 2008: 8.30% D
Panola County, Mississippi 2016: 0.12% R 2012: 8.62% D 2008: 6.52% D
Hidalgo County, New Mexico 2016: 6.73% R 2012: 4.96% D 2008: 2.92% D
Twiggs County, Georgia 2016: 1.58% R 2012: 8.64% D 2008: 6.97% D
Buckingham County, Virginia 2016: 11.28% R 2012: 2.43% D 2008: 0.87% D
Orange County, New York 2016: 5.50% R 2012: 5.65% D 2008: 4.13% D
Richmond County, North Carolina 2016: 9.74% R 2012: 2.95% D 2008: 1.50% D
Quitman County, Georgia 2016: 10.92% R 2012: 9.04% D 2008: 7.90% D
Washington County, New York 2016: 18.40% R 2012: 1.90% D 2008: 0.81% D
Alexander County, Illinois 2016: 8.30% R 2012: 13.65% D 2008: 12.62% D
Calhoun County, South Carolina 2016: 2.83% R 2012: 4.31% D 2008: 3.55% D
Peach County, Georgia 2016: 2.91% R 2012: 7.48% D 2008: 6.75% D
Washington County, Maine 2016: 18.44% R 2012: 1.60% D 2008: 1.01% D
Trumbull County, Ohio 2016: 6.22% R 2012: 23.00% D 2008: 22.43% D
St. Lawrence County, New York 2016: 8.82% R 2012: 16.71% D 2008: 16.33% D
Kent County, Rhode Island 2016: 0.67% R 2012: 17.74% D 2008: 17.40% D
Muscatine County, Iowa 2016: 6.26% R 2012: 15.88% D 2008: 15.64% D
Union County, Iowa 2016: 27.49% R 2012: 3.86% D 2008: 3.70% D
Madison County, New York 2016: 14.20% R 2012: 0.89% D 2008: 0.87% D
Martin County, North Carolina 2016: 0.43% R 2012: 4.65% D 2008: 4.64% D
Marshall County, Iowa 2016: 8.31% R 2012: 9.36% D 2008: 9.35% D

What exactly happened in far upstate NY and frontier New England?

Romney was a very poor fit for many of these counties which are generally lower incomes
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2019, 09:32:08 AM »

tWeNtY sIxTeEn wAs a cOnTiNuAtIoN oF nAtUrAl tReNdS

This. Also, wHiTe PeOpLe WiLl NeVeR vOtE dEmOcRaT aGaIn.

(See my signature.)
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2019, 12:33:21 AM »

tWeNtY sIxTeEn wAs a cOnTiNuAtIoN oF nAtUrAl tReNdS

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=346578.0

This thread removes those talking points lol


And this thread show how accurate trends are at predicting map more than two cycle away :

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=55337.0
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2019, 01:39:47 AM »
« Edited: December 09, 2019, 01:45:47 AM by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

tWeNtY sIxTeEn wAs a cOnTiNuAtIoN oF nAtUrAl tReNdS

This. Also, wHiTe PeOpLe WiLl NeVeR vOtE dEmOcRaT aGaIn.

(See my signature.)

They didn’t even win the white vote after two wars, the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression and an outgoing Republican President with a 25% approval rating, so I’m going to guess “no”, Democrats probably won’t win the white vote for President ever again. At least in any form that somewhat resembles the current Democratic Party
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538Electoral
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2019, 01:25:34 AM »

Neat.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2019, 02:16:25 AM »

tWeNtY sIxTeEn wAs a cOnTiNuAtIoN oF nAtUrAl tReNdS

This. Also, wHiTe PeOpLe WiLl NeVeR vOtE dEmOcRaT aGaIn.

(See my signature.)

They didn’t even win the white vote after two wars, the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression and an outgoing Republican President with a 25% approval rating, so I’m going to guess “no”, Democrats probably won’t win the white vote for President ever again. At least in any form that somewhat resembles the current Democratic Party

Yup. There's a reason why Democrats want to import as many immigrants as possible and give citizenship to illegal aliens. It's about getting their votes and gaining an electoral stranglehold as a result.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2019, 09:04:32 AM »
« Edited: December 26, 2019, 10:27:56 AM by mathstatman »

I'll attempt a non-snarky response to this well-researched question (though I can't figure out the rationale behind the ordering of the counties).

The only region conspicuously absent is the West (Pacific as well as Mountain).

I'm going to guess: (1) Obama's Hurricane Sandy bounce; (2) Trump's resonating with residents of New York State (but not NYC itself, except for Staten Island); (3) an abundance of Sanders primary supporters who voted 3rd party in the GE-- particularly those who voted Obama in 2012 and were too young to vote in '08.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #8 on: December 26, 2019, 10:03:11 AM »

Well done!

So the question now, fellas, becomes which of these counties remain TRUMP counties in 2020?

And in case anybody was wondering, there were six McCain - Romney - Clinton counties -- one of which was my homebase Fort Bend County. 
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #9 on: December 26, 2019, 10:27:19 AM »

Well done!

So the question now, fellas, becomes which of these counties remain TRUMP counties in 2020?

And in case anybody was wondering, there were six McCain - Romney - Clinton counties -- one of which was my homebase Fort Bend County.  
I'd say most such counties that went for Trump by less than 2% (in the Northeast) or 3% (in the Midwest) will flip. In the South, I predict Martin, NC will flip.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2019, 10:27:19 AM »

Florida and Ohio were Obama-Obama-Trump states that trended D in 2012.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2020, 06:59:15 PM »

Well done!

So the question now, fellas, becomes which of these counties remain TRUMP counties in 2020?

And in case anybody was wondering, there were six McCain - Romney - Clinton counties -- one of which was my homebase Fort Bend County. 
Actually, there were 7.

Anne Arundel, MD
Henry, GA
Gwinnett, GA
Cobb, GA
Fort Bend, TX
Orange, CA
Haines, AK
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2020, 07:12:10 PM »

I don't know what happened in frontier New England and far Upstate New York (near the border with Canada) but all those counties have massive French Canadian populations. There is a big French Canadian population also in Windham County, CT, another place in New England where Hillary Clinton crashed.
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