Kean 36% Mendez 25%: a Republican pick up?

[zorkpolitics]

FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON UNIVERSITY POLL
Tom Kean, Jr. (R)
36%
Bob Menendez (D)
25%

http://www.politicsnj.com/default011606.htm

'Tom Kean Jr. starts this race with the name ID and popularity of a rock star. New Jersey voters this November will be looking to vote for a proven reformer like Tom Kean, Jr., not a political insider and wheeler/dealer like Menendez,' said Dr. Mark P. Campbell, an FDU poll analyst. 'If Kean raises the money he wins. It's that simple.

With 39% undecided its really a wide open race.  And I agree whoever raises the most money will probably have the edge.  A wild card is whether Corzine will activate his GOTV machine and call it 'non-partisan' so he can spend an extra $5 million on Menendez's behalf

Too bad Tom Kean does not even have a web site to solicit donors!

So far Kean has raised a $1 Million vs $4 Million for Menendez.

[© tweed]

A university poll that isn't Quinnipiac is garbage.
Any poll with 39% undecided is garbage.

[Erc]

I haven't seen a single poll from NJ yet with any candidate out of the 30's.

In other words, we know as much about this race as we did a year ago (well, with the exception of who the Democratic candidate will be).

[Alcon]

Fairleigh Dickinson repeatedly showed New Jersey as tied in 2004.

Severe grain of salt warning here.

[Gustaf]

The analysis sounds very partisan as well...still, it's an indication, if nothing else.

[TheresNoMoney]

In my opinion, New Jersey is the Republicans' top chance for a pickup.

The only other realistic possibility I see is Minnesota.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This poll has crap written all over it.

[nini2287]

In my opinion, New Jersey is the Republicans' top chance for a pickup.

The only other realistic possibility I see is Minnesota.

I actually agree with Scoonie here although I would add Maryland in here as well (especially if that last poll had some semblence of truth to it)

[MissCatholic]

Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota need to be kept by the democrats. We cant give the republicans any hint of momentum heading into 2008.

When republicans feel they are going to lose they dont show up to the polls. Thats what Kerry failed to do.

[minionofmidas]

The analysis sounds very partisan as well...still, it's an indication, if nothing else.

Not the site's fault.

This is their full piece.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, in other words, the director of the poll didn't give them a good soundbite, so they took it to a partisan Republican and a partisan Democrat, both associated with the poll makers, and Zork then quoted the Rep and pretended it was FDU's analysis.

[Democratic Hawk]

Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota need to be kept by the democrats.

Indeed, they do . If the Democratic Party is to re-gain control of the Senate, they cannot afford to lose any seats whatsoever, especially 'safe' ones like in Maryland, to a greater extent, and New Jersey, to a lesser extent, since the Garden State is somewhat less Democratic

Dave

[Smash255]

I would say this poll would bother me, but considering its from a company who had NJ tied kllast year, and the undecided's are actually higher than either candidate's totals ummm.... Garbage Pail.

For the record has anyone seen the internals of the poll?

[zorkpolitics]

I would say this poll would bother me, but considering its from a company who had NJ tied kllast year, and the undecided's are actually higher than either candidate's totals ummm.... Garbage Pail.

For the record has anyone seen the internals of the poll?

the internals can be found here:
http://publicmind.fdu.edu/senatorm/tab.html

red flags: Menendez favored by only 39% of Dems, an donly 42% of the non-white.

[minionofmidas]

red flags: Menendez favored by only 39% of Dems, an donly 42% of the non-white.

Those figures are not to be found at your link A figure that can be found is ... 40% have never heard of Bob Menendez. Of those that have heard of him 50% have no opinion about him yet. Of those that have an opinion about him two thirds view him favorably. Of these, two thirds pick very when asked to say whether their view is very or somewhat favorable.

Make of that what you will.