The ted cruz electorate and Trump electorate

[jman123]

In the 2016 primaries,  what diferentiated the Trump electorate vs the Ted Cruz electorate?

[darklordoftech]

Ted Cruz voters are probably more likely to be National Review subscribers, more opinionated on wedge issues, more hawkish, more religious, more likely to own guns, and richer.

[RI]

Cruz voters were more conservative (suburban + exurban + western rural, more religious, somewhat wealthier, white collar), Trump voters were more moderate/communitarian (small town + eastern rural, older, less religious, poorer, less educated, more populist, blue collar).

[Orser67]

Support for Trump was strongly correlated with negative views of blacks/immigrants/Muslims and moderate/liberal views on economics. Support for Cruz was strongly correlated with conservative economic views. Trump generally did better with those who reported economic anxiety, Kasich and Rubio did worse with said group, and Cruz did about the same regardless of self-reported economic anxiety. Income itself wasn't especially important, though Trump did best with those making under $30k and Rubio/Kasich did best with those making >$50k (support for Cruz didn't change too much based on income).

My source here is Identity Crisis by John Sides et. al. One of their main points is that Trump won both the primary and general election in large part because of "racialized economic anxiety", which largely boils down to the attitude of: "non-whites are taking all the jobs and government benefits". Many also hold the view that "discrimination against whites is a bigger problem than discrimination against non-whites".

[Orser67]

Also, it's worth noting that Cruz voters were more likely to vote for Trump in the general than were Kasich/Rubio voters. In the general, Trump won 98% of his own primary voters, 77% of Cruz's voters, 67% of Rubio's voters, and just 57% of Kasich's voters. Most of the remaining Cruz voters went for Gary Johnson or another candidate (I'm assuming McMullin?). Meanwhile, Clinton won a whopping 32% of Kasich's voters (compared to just 10% of Rubio's voters and 3% of Cruz's).

[morgankingsley]

Also, it's worth noting that Cruz voters were more likely to vote for Trump in the general than were Kasich/Rubio voters. In the general, Trump won 98% of his own primary voters, 77% of Cruz's voters, 67% of Rubio's voters, and just 57% of Kasich's voters. Most of the remaining Cruz voters went for Gary Johnson or another candidate (I'm assuming McMullin?). Meanwhile, Clinton won a whopping 32% of Kasich's voters (compared to just 10% of Rubio's voters and 3% of Cruz's).

Well there was no way in hell Cruz supporters were going to bolt to Clinton. She had literally nothing in common with his platform like at all besides "never trump". But for the vast majority of Cruz voters knew that while trump was far from the ideal choice, he was plain and simple the closer of the two, and therefore seemed to be the option to go with

[darklordoftech]

Also, it's worth noting that Cruz voters were more likely to vote for Trump in the general than were Kasich/Rubio voters. In the general, Trump won 98% of his own primary voters, 77% of Cruz's voters, 67% of Rubio's voters, and just 57% of Kasich's voters. Most of the remaining Cruz voters went for Gary Johnson or another candidate (I'm assuming McMullin?). Meanwhile, Clinton won a whopping 32% of Kasich's voters (compared to just 10% of Rubio's voters and 3% of Cruz's).

Well there was no way in hell Cruz supporters were going to bolt to Clinton. She had literally nothing in common with his platform like at all besides "never trump". But for the vast majority of Cruz voters knew that while trump was far from the ideal choice, he was plain and simple the closer of the two, and therefore seemed to be the option to go with

Cruz voters tended to be very conservative on wedge issues (healthcare, SCOTUS justices, guns, immigration, income taxes), ensuring that they would vote for the GOP nominee. However, I could see a voter who hates tariffs, hates Russia, or likes NATO being a Cruz-Hillary voter.

[atheist4thecause]

Support for Trump was strongly correlated with negative views of blacks/immigrants/Muslims and moderate/liberal views on economics. Support for Cruz was strongly correlated with conservative economic views. Trump generally did better with those who reported economic anxiety, Kasich and Rubio did worse with said group, and Cruz did about the same regardless of self-reported economic anxiety. Income itself wasn't especially important, though Trump did best with those making under $30k and Rubio/Kasich did best with those making >$50k (support for Cruz didn't change too much based on income).

My source here is Identity Crisis by John Sides et. al. One of their main points is that Trump won both the primary and general election in large part because of "racialized economic anxiety", which largely boils down to the attitude of: "non-whites are taking all the jobs and government benefits". Many also hold the view that "discrimination against whites is a bigger problem than discrimination against non-whites".

That's a poor way of putting it. If asked in a poll, Trump supporters would be more likely to say that Blacks are more criminal than Whites than supporters of other candidates, but that's just objectively true based on facts about arrest rates and things like that. Blacks as a group commit far more crimes per capita. It's like if you say that school shooters tend to be White, that doesn't mean you see Whites negatively, it just means that you recognize the objective fact that school shooters tend to be White. The way you word it is the vilification of Trump supporters that the MSM was dishonestly putting out there, and it's a big reason Trump won. I see you haven't learned your lesson.

[Orser67]

Support for Trump was strongly correlated with negative views of blacks/immigrants/Muslims and moderate/liberal views on economics. Support for Cruz was strongly correlated with conservative economic views. Trump generally did better with those who reported economic anxiety, Kasich and Rubio did worse with said group, and Cruz did about the same regardless of self-reported economic anxiety. Income itself wasn't especially important, though Trump did best with those making under $30k and Rubio/Kasich did best with those making >$50k (support for Cruz didn't change too much based on income).

My source here is Identity Crisis by John Sides et. al. One of their main points is that Trump won both the primary and general election in large part because of "racialized economic anxiety", which largely boils down to the attitude of: "non-whites are taking all the jobs and government benefits". Many also hold the view that "discrimination against whites is a bigger problem than discrimination against non-whites".

That's a poor way of putting it. If asked in a poll, Trump supporters would be more likely to say that Blacks are more criminal than Whites than supporters of other candidates, but that's just objectively true based on facts about arrest rates and things like that. Blacks as a group commit far more crimes per capita. It's like if you say that school shooters tend to be White, that doesn't mean you see Whites negatively, it just means that you recognize the objective fact that school shooters tend to be White. The way you word it is the vilification of Trump supporters that the MSM was dishonestly putting out there, and it's a big reason Trump won. I see you haven't learned your lesson.

The authors were looking at responses to opinion-based questions such as:

-"Do you attribute racial inequality to discrimination or to blacks' lack of effort"

-"Do you oppose interracial dating?"

-"Do you rate Muslims favorably or unfavorably?"

[atheist4thecause]

Support for Trump was strongly correlated with negative views of blacks/immigrants/Muslims and moderate/liberal views on economics. Support for Cruz was strongly correlated with conservative economic views. Trump generally did better with those who reported economic anxiety, Kasich and Rubio did worse with said group, and Cruz did about the same regardless of self-reported economic anxiety. Income itself wasn't especially important, though Trump did best with those making under $30k and Rubio/Kasich did best with those making >$50k (support for Cruz didn't change too much based on income).

My source here is Identity Crisis by John Sides et. al. One of their main points is that Trump won both the primary and general election in large part because of "racialized economic anxiety", which largely boils down to the attitude of: "non-whites are taking all the jobs and government benefits". Many also hold the view that "discrimination against whites is a bigger problem than discrimination against non-whites".

That's a poor way of putting it. If asked in a poll, Trump supporters would be more likely to say that Blacks are more criminal than Whites than supporters of other candidates, but that's just objectively true based on facts about arrest rates and things like that. Blacks as a group commit far more crimes per capita. It's like if you say that school shooters tend to be White, that doesn't mean you see Whites negatively, it just means that you recognize the objective fact that school shooters tend to be White. The way you word it is the vilification of Trump supporters that the MSM was dishonestly putting out there, and it's a big reason Trump won. I see you haven't learned your lesson.

The authors were looking at responses to opinion-based questions such as:

-"Do you attribute racial inequality to discrimination or to blacks' lack of effort"

-"Do you oppose interracial dating?"

-"Do you rate Muslims favorably or unfavorably?"

Do you have a link specifically to the poll you are using? Btw, these things aren't necessarily indicative of negative views of Blacks. For instance, if a person doesn't value interracial dating based on the data that interracial dating ends up in divorce and abuse more than intra-racial dating, that would just be based on facts and isn't a negative view of any race. Interracial dating isn't even race-specific because it includes groupings like Asian-Latino, for instance. If one said they attribute the racial inequality to Blacks' lack of effort rather than discrimination, that's first of all a false dichotomy and loaded question, and second of all, if Trump supporters tend to value empowerment of the individual (which they do) then of course they will be more likely to blame a lack of effort, not just for Blacks, but for all races.

The goal of these kinds of questionnaires is typically to make the Basket of Deplorables look like racists so that the loser elites can feel better about losing.

[darklordoftech]

For Albion’s Seed fans, it seems like the Cavaliers voted for Cruz and the Scotch-Irish voted for Trump.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Cruz supporters were more religious, wealthy, and more focused on economic issues such as the budget, and were derived from the Santorum crowd from 2012.

Trump supporters were more blue collar, secular, focused on issues like illegal immigration and corruption in government, and they derived mainly from the Romney and Gingrich crowd.

WTF lol

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For Albion’s Seed fans, it seems like the Cavaliers voted for Cruz and the Scotch-Irish voted for Trump.

I suppose the Cavaliers voted Romney (but with Gingrich in the mix) in 2012 and McCain in 2008 whereas the Scotch-Irish voted Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008?

[darklordoftech]

For Albion’s Seed fans, it seems like the Cavaliers voted for Cruz and the Scotch-Irish voted for Trump.

I suppose the Cavaliers voted Romney (but with Gingrich in the mix) in 2012 and McCain in 2008 whereas the Scotch-Irish voted Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008?

Romney and McCain both appealed to “Cavaliers” in 2008, but otherwise correct.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For Albion’s Seed fans, it seems like the Cavaliers voted for Cruz and the Scotch-Irish voted for Trump.

I suppose the Cavaliers voted Romney (but with Gingrich in the mix) in 2012 and McCain in 2008 whereas the Scotch-Irish voted Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008?

Romney and McCain both appealed to “Cavaliers” in 2008, but otherwise correct.

Yeah I was thinking about that. But I think McCain appealed more to the types in the Black Belt and Romney more to the types in Sandy Springs, Alpharetta and Belle Meade.