The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trump's potential campaign kickoff?:

https://www.axios.com/trump-biden-inauguration-florida-rally-78b56134-54ae-4113-ad0a-ae29cd5c7be1.html

President Trump is considering a made-for-TV grand finale: a White House departure on Marine One and final Air Force One flight to Florida for a political rally opposite Joe Biden's inauguration, sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

The former network star is privately discussing using his waning powers as commander in chief to order up the exit he wants after dissing Biden by refusing to concede the election, welcome him to the White House or commit to attending his inauguration.

Is he...allowed to take Air Force One out of Washington on inauguration day?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/mikepompeo/status/1352274074886680579
1,384 days from now is exactly the date of the next presidential election, which is November 5, 2024.

Honest question: Who seriously wants Mike Pompeo to be President?

Mike Pompeo

Susan Pompeo, too.

I wouldn’t be quite so sure.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Hawley’s voted against every Biden cabinet nominee, but denies that that’s a sign he’s going to run for president:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/04/josh-hawley-2024-465756

“All I can say is no,” Hawley said in an interview on Wednesday, denying he has an overarching plan to oppose Biden’s nominees. “What can I say? That’s clearly not my focus.”

But aside from Hawley’s allies, no one familiar with presidential politics or the U.S. Senate is taking the 41-year-old at his word — especially after several Democratic senators used their opposition to early Trump appointees as a springboard to 2020.

Also:

Hawley is becoming more of a regular on Fox News, the most-watched cable channel for Republican primary voters, and his fundraising has kept pace with his growing national profile. Negative news media coverage and the Democrats’ ethics investigation of him and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for their roles leading up to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot has served to stoke his coffers: A memo sent to donors this week said he raised nearly $1 million in January, touted his popularity in the state and argued his electoral objections were popular in Missouri.

lmao ok

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What even is Hawley's appeal?

He’s a Trump guy through and through.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Nikki Haley, by way of having morality and a conscious, out.

Insofar as she does have those things.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Nikki Haley, by way of having morality and a conscious, out.

Insofar as she does have those things.

I mean, I assume she does sleep sometimes.  So during those periods, she isn't conscious, but otherwise she is.

I’ve never seen her do it but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/04/rick-scott-maga-473548

Rick Scott, despite embracing MAGA, is failing to gain traction

He reminds me a lot of Scott Walker. A far right governor of a swing state that keeps winning state elections and gets a lot of media attention, but the national rank and file just don't care for.

Is Scott really getting a lot of media attention? All I’ve seen is DeSantis and to a lesser extent Rubio.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1400592340377608193

Pence just has to push ads looping 1/6 footage over the audio calling for his hanging (with eventual footage of Biden taking office) and he'll at least give Trump a contested convention.

I'm feeling a Revenge of the Silver Fox arc here.

Pence would fail spectacularly and all the anti-Trump Republicans will be extinct by 2024.

I wouldn't go that far. Worst case scenario they have SAM or the Libertarian Party to run to, grow quickly with the tens of millions of dollars they'll bring, and make it a viable third party. GOP cannot win an Insert 2028 Dem vs. DeSantis (for example) vs. Anti-Trump Republican election. That's the best part of the Trump/QAnon community's dream; they really don't understand how elections work.

Or we're all killed in the coup, who knows.

How exactly will they “make it a viable third party”?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Even if Biden runs- there is a good chance he loses in the Primary. Although this almost never happens... Age/ concern over health capacity ... is one reason that makes this situation different. I also think the risk of losing- is a big reason Biden may end up not running (to ensure he ends long career at President... rather than risk ending a ousted in Primary).

But nationwide polls are very important. The early primaries will set the tone:

The latest NH Primary had Biden in 2nd Place by 1pt (with only 16% support). Harris is in 7th or 8th place with about 6% support.


Also- Iowa isn't naturally fertile ground for Biden. In 2020 Iowa Caucus, he finished 4th (with only 14%). Harris did not meet the threshold to get any votes.

Biden. Will. Not. Lose. A. Primary.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

"U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s rise on the national stage since she left Rhode Island is spurring speculation about her political future. But there’s at least one path she’s already willing to rule out."

“Not a no, but not a yes, either” is how she characterized her answer, describing herself as “really, really focused” on leading the Commerce Department.

WPRI reported but I can't share the link.

What rise on the national stage?