The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What even is Hawley's appeal?

(devil's advocate, Hawley like most Republicans sicken me after the events of 1/6)

Staunch fighter against Big Tech censorship and political correctness, young, TradLife optics, pro-life, consistently pro-Trump record. Younger Republicans along the Red Eagle Politics line of intelligence love him.

Yeah, this is why I think he can still win. Also, he simultaneously is one of the most liberal GOP senators economically and Trump's most loyal Senate supporter.

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Trump on 2024:

https://dailycaller.com/2021/05/04/donald-trump-2024-candace-owens/

“I’m absolutely enthused. I look forward to doing an announcement at the right time,” Trump told The Daily Wire’s Candace Owens about his 2024 election plans. Trump would enter the Republican primary field as a prohibitive favorite if he does run for president again.

“It’s very early, but I think people are going to be very, very happy … when I make a certain announcement,” Trump continued. “For campaign finance reasons, you really can’t do it too early because it becomes a whole different thing. Otherwise, I’d give you an answer that I think you’d be very happy with. So we are looking at that very, very seriously. And all I’ll say is, stay tuned.”

- snip -

Good grief, the man is certifiably nuts. (Well, we already knew that, but based on this, he's proving it even more.)

Some reporter has got to ask him this question: "Sir, you repeatedly claimed that election 2020 was stolen from you, that it was rigged and it had massive election fraud. If the last election was rigged against you, why wouldn't the next election be rigged as well? How can you possibly win since the opposition party still has the means of rigging the system again?"

Yeah Trump's running again. People don't like to admit it but we're heading for a rematch.

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This thread's recent talk is activating some 'nice' flashbacks to 2015 of Democratic hopes for a certain bumbling fool to end up being the Republican nominee so that Hillary could easily crush him. Did the totality of everything over these last 6 years really somehow manage to not force us to learn our lesson on that? Let's please not go through that again, shall we?

He's personally reprehensible, but on policy, Gaetz would probably be a better president than most of the Republican frontrunners.

True. Without the allegations/investigation, he would be the GOP's best shot at winning imo.

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https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1400889992805765121
"Next time I'm in the White House..."

And some idiots still think he won't run.

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LOL Trump isn't picking MTG, Boebert or Gaetz like some Dems think here. I'd say Hawley, DeSantis or imo the most likely Noem are more probable.

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Anybody think Hawley's a likely contender for 2024? I think he's one of the only candidates who would be at all competitive against Trump in a primary.

Not only would he not run against Trump, he's polling at like...1% in polls without Trump included.

I could definitely see him running against Trump; Hawley's brand is pretty unique in the GOP right now. Someone like DeSantis, who's very derivative of Trump, probably won't run against him. But Hawley is positioning himself as a new breed of Republican. Given this, I could easily see him running against Trump.

When it comes to polling, we're a long way from the primary. Voters are tuned out, and I'd say Hawley isn't quite a household name yet. If he did end up running, his name recognition would go up through news coverage, debates, etc. Remember that Carter, Obama, Bernie, and others were all unexpectedly successful though early polling was very much not in their favor.

That's not to say polls don't matter, but their value is decidedly limited right now. Until the primary season is actually underway or close to it, I'd say they're far from definitive.

Hawley is NOT running against Trump.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

In every Trump speech/statement so far, he's explicitly said that he supports withdrawal, but thinks Biden handled it poorly.
Regular GOP politicians are a different story, but Trump isn't going pro-war.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Nina Turner gives a no comment on whether she'll run against Biden for the Dem. nomination:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2021/12/20/rage-of-the-left-wing-machine-495528

Now, with the sting of this latest BBB setback still fresh, progressive lawmakers and activists are openly venting about the White House — and some are even entertaining the idea of a primary challenge to Biden in 2024, if he stands by his plans to run for re-election.

Asked if she thought there’d be such a challenge, former state senator NINA TURNER, a close ally of Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), told West Wing Playbook: “Without a doubt.”

“I think the movement is going to cry out for that,” she said. “We played nice in 2020, we played nice in 2021, and what did we get for it?” Asked if she would consider challenging Biden, Turner declined to comment.

Given that she didn't flat out deny it, she's considering it

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-s-2020-fixation-putting-him-odds-some-his-biggest-n1286602?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

A lot of local GOP activists in swing states are tired of rehashing 2020 and want to move on. Honestly, if Trump runs again and his whole platform is how Democrats and RINOs stole the election, I think he really could be surprisingly vulnerable to someone like DeSantis who's in the "move on" camp.

Members of local GOPs (who probably were cherrypicked to make the article more interesting) aren't the base. A majority of Republicans which is actually growing, believe the election was stolen.

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Pompeo's lost more weight:

https://nypost.com/2022/01/06/mike-pompeos-weight-loss-story-down-90-pounds-in-6-months/

Another social media rumor is that Pompeo dropped the pounds to gear up for a presidential run in 2024. He laughs at the suggestion.

“The truth is, I’m really getting ready for 2044 and hoping I’ll be around in 2054.”

 Why those specific years? Grandchildren, he says hopefully.

“My son’s getting married in July, and I wanted to be healthier and be around for what I hope the Lord will bless us with as grandkids before too terribly long. I’m not supposed to talk about that, I’m told,” he said with a chuckle, knowing he is going to get a little good-natured grief for letting his true feelings slip.

Am I the only one who sees a resemblance to Pataki?

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Trump on 2024:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-condemns-russia-invasion-says-he-prays-ukrainian-people-2022-02-27/

Trump has not confirmed whether he will run for president again in 2024, but has hinted at it heavily recently and did so again on Saturday.

"On November 2024, they (Democrats) will find out like never before. We did it twice, and we'll do it again. We're going to be doing it again, a third time," Trump said.

Anyone who still believes Trump won't run again is literally braindead

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Kinzinger on 2024:

https://rollcall.com/2022/02/28/kinzinger-to-keep-fight-against-trumpism-going-after-house-but-hedges-on-2024/

Asked outside the ballroom if he was hinting at a presidential race, he said the super PAC he leads, Country First, has been building support and he wants to “see where that goes.”

“I am excited about continuing the fight for the country. At some point you’ve got to look and say, ‘Is the House the best place to do it?’ I think 12 years in the House is a long time for me. But I don’t intend to give up on the fight for the country,” he said.

Asked if he was definitely not running for president, Kinzinger, who turned 44 on Sunday, replied: “I’m definitely not announcing I’m running for president.”

Cheney/Kinzinger 2024 ticket here we go! Can't wait for them to get 0.6% of the vote, waste hundreds of millions of establishment neolib/neocon dollars and be permanently humiliated.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1502812678582059010

This is the 50th time we've gotten the "unofficial campaign announcement". We all know he's gonna run.

1. He has basically said he's running over and over and over again
2. People in contact with him say that he tells everyone he's running in private
3. Everyone who knows him and most GOP politicians are saying he's gonna run
4. He's obsessed with installing governors/secretaries of state/attorney generals in preparation to steal another election, which he would only do if he plans on running again (Trump wouldn't care to steal an election for someone else)
5. He reportedly is getting involved with Senate/congress races to ensure he has a pro-Trump congress for a second term
6. Again, every single time something comes out from behind-the-scenes in Trumpworld, it has to do with Trump doing something to try and increase his chances of running again
7. Trump is still incredibly involved with politics. Trump wouldn't want to be a "kingmaker", as the only thing he cares about is his own power and ego, what could they possibly offer him? Right now his litmus test is being willing to overturn another election, which Trump would only care about if he's running again
8. He's said that the reason he can't announce he's running for President yet is that when he announces he has to abide by campaign laws and the media has to limit his airtime and stuff
9. Trump has been pressuring Republican politicians to declare they won't run against Trump if he runs, DeSantis not doing so is a major reason he's getting on his nerves
10. He's basically said he's running like 10 times already geez how much more do you need?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

I'd go further; I don't know why anyone's pretending he isn't a lock to be the Republican nominee. Sure this is the tea leaves thread, and it definitely looks like Pompeo at a minimum is running, but it's irrelevant really; Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

I think a few others like Pence (LMAO) are also going to run regardless of Trump running, but it'll be irrelevant as despite what CNN want people to think, Trump's hold on the Republican party is par to none.

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NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

What would qualify as evidence to you that he is serious about running? Because to me it looks like he's done everything apart from say "I am running for president in 2024".

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

What would qualify as evidence to you that he is serious about running? Because to me it looks like he's done everything apart from say "I am running for president in 2024".

I’m just feeling like he’s just teasing. He may still run yes but maybe he doesn’t.

Like I said though, what evidence would you need to prove he is being serious?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

What would qualify as evidence to you that he is serious about running? Because to me it looks like he's done everything apart from say "I am running for president in 2024".

I’m just feeling like he’s just teasing. He may still run yes but maybe he doesn’t.

Like I said though, what evidence would you need to prove he is being serious?

I’m just skeptical until he’s officially in. I mean I was expecting Sununu to run for Senate until he didn’t.

Except Sununu never really commented on whether he would run for Senate, he just said "we'll see". It would be different if he was telling everyone he knew he was running and consistently called himself the "next Senator from New Hampshire" and that he's gonna have to "win the Senate race".

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

What would qualify as evidence to you that he is serious about running? Because to me it looks like he's done everything apart from say "I am running for president in 2024".

I’m just feeling like he’s just teasing. He may still run yes but maybe he doesn’t.

Like I said though, what evidence would you need to prove he is being serious?

I’m just skeptical until he’s officially in. I mean I was expecting Sununu to run for Senate until he didn’t.

Except Sununu never really commented on whether he would run for Senate, he just said "we'll see". It would be different if he was telling everyone he knew he was running and consistently called himself the "next Senator from New Hampshire" and that he's gonna have to "win the Senate race".

Anyway if it were clear Trump is running I don’t think there’d be any discourse around DeSantis and everyone else.

Its clear Michelle Obama's not running yet she's included in every dem primary poll. Online speculation is irrelevant.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

I'd go further; I don't know why anyone's pretending he isn't a lock to be the Republican nominee. Sure this is the tea leaves thread, and it definitely looks like Pompeo at a minimum is running, but it's irrelevant really; Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

I think most people expect him to be the nominee if he runs. The people just don’t seem to be convinced he will actually pull the trigger.

I really struggle with people who don't think he'll run; literally everything he's said and done indicates he will, and based on everything we know about his compulsive need to be in the public eye and to be number one, it's impossible to imagine him bowing out. The only way I see him not running is if his health takes a drastic downturn (unlikely; he seems frustratingly spry for his age + BMI) or he's barred from running for whatever reason.

How does he get barred from running.

It's not going to happen, but Congress can theoretically bar him based on the 14th right?

However using the same simple majority vote, congress can UNbar him once Republicans get in power.
Also I expect the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether Trump legally "incited insurrection", as that is a requirement for him to be banned. As the Supreme Court has always been very very careful about what constituted illegal speech, it's basically impossible it would stand up in court.

So if Democrats bar him from running, it will either be overturned once Republicans take over, or overturned via the Supreme Court. And then Republicans get the massively huge optics boost from Democrats trying to ban their biggest opponent from running for President and making him look like a victim of political censorship.

And people still call the 14th amendment banning Trump a good idea...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

I'd go further; I don't know why anyone's pretending he isn't a lock to be the Republican nominee. Sure this is the tea leaves thread, and it definitely looks like Pompeo at a minimum is running, but it's irrelevant really; Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

I think most people expect him to be the nominee if he runs. The people just don’t seem to be convinced he will actually pull the trigger.

I really struggle with people who don't think he'll run; literally everything he's said and done indicates he will, and based on everything we know about his compulsive need to be in the public eye and to be number one, it's impossible to imagine him bowing out. The only way I see him not running is if his health takes a drastic downturn (unlikely; he seems frustratingly spry for his age + BMI) or he's barred from running for whatever reason.

How does he get barred from running.

It's not going to happen, but Congress can theoretically bar him based on the 14th right?

However using the same simple majority vote, congress can UNbar him once Republicans get in power.
Also I expect the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether Trump legally "incited insurrection", as that is a requirement for him to be banned. As the Supreme Court has always been very very careful about what constituted illegal speech, it's basically impossible it would stand up in court.

So if Democrats bar him from running, it will either be overturned once Republicans take over, or overturned via the Supreme Court. And then Republicans get the massively huge optics boost from Democrats trying to ban their biggest opponent from running for President and making him look like a victim of political censorship.

And people still call the 14th amendment banning Trump a good idea...

Does this work different from the disqualification method through impeachment.

It is different. Impeachment requires 2/3 majority, 14th amendment needs only a simple majority.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/17/sanders-khanna-presidential-bid-2024-00018017

Sanders camp pushing Ro Khanna for presidential bid if Biden doesn't run.

REALLY SMART idea. None of the Squad are electable at all, as I've said 100 times before Khanna or Welch are the only progressives who can mount a successful presidential run.
Khanna is real presidential material imo.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Will Hurd:

https://politicalwire.com/2022/03/28/will-hurd-mulls-a-2024-presidential-bid/

Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) is mulling a 2024 presidential run amid a Republican Party that has move to the hard right, The Atlantic reports.

Said Hurd: “Look, there’s some people I’m not going to appeal to — the right-wingers. That’s okay. But there’s more of the other people. The normal people. And I’m going to find them. It will be hard. The cost per acquisition of those voters is higher than it is for the traditional Republican primary voter—you know, the people who have voted in the last four primaries. That’s why most people don’t bother trying to find them or turn them out.”

Mark Sanford 2.0

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/20/sanders-president-2024/

BASED

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tucker Carlson visiting Iowa:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-to-speak-at-iowa-summit-raising-eyebrows-and-speculation-of-a-presidential-run/

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1518992834384343041?s=20&t=LN08rUUxu...

Trump is running in 2024 so he won't run then, but he would be a formidable candidate in 2028.

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Hillary Clinton says a 2024 presidential run by her is “out of the question”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-2024-presidential-campaign-biden-democrats-2022-6

While speaking with the Financial Times, the former first lady and US senator said that she expected President Joe Biden to stand for reelection in two years. When asked if she could view herself launching a campaign — after unsuccessfully challenging Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and losing the general election to Donald Trump in 2016 — Clinton quickly waved off such a proposition.

"No, out of the question," she said.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was in Iowa on Friday to support striking UAW workers:

https://www.thehawkeye.com/story/news/2022/06/19/case-new-holland-strikers-react-bernie-sanders-burlington-iowa-visit/7622573001/

I'm starting to think that if Biden doesn't run for whatever reason, Bernie gives it one last shot.