The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

FOLKS:

https://twitter.com/amieparnes/status/1611728150483845121

Good.

I don't see any other D winning in 2024, other than Biden and maybe successful centrist governors like Laura Kelly or Jared Polis.

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Potential candidates for President have to announce their candidacy no later than October or November, right?

From what I remember, filing deadlines for the earliest primary states (SC, NH, NV) are in November - or even as early as October - because overseas ballots have to be sent out long before election day.

Serious candidates can't miss those deadlines.

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Biden IN:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/president-biden-says-he-will-run-again-2024-nbc-2023-04-10/

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https://twitter.com/mccormickjohn/status/1662032016785784832?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

He looks like a president from a movie, but not like one where the president is prominently featured

He looks like Matthew McConaughey's father.

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Why is Burgum announcing on the same day as the former VP?

Doesn't make any sense to me: it just means you have less publicity and Burgum doesn't have the luxury of high name recognition. Why isn't he waiting for another week or month?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

ALREADY IN:

Trump
Ramaswamy
Haley
Hutchinson
Scott
Elder
Pence
DeSantis
Christie
Burgum

MAYBE:
Bolton
Suarez
Youngkin
Perry

My guess is Bolton, Perry (LOL), and Youngkin don't run but Suarez does. Does this look about right to everyone?

Why is Youngkin still considered a potential candidate?

If Republicans win the Virginia legislature elections in November, wouldn't he remain Governor so he can sign conservative laws that are passed by the new Republican majority? Why resigning and run for President? And if Republicans lose the Virginia legislature elections in November, he would be seen as an ineffective campaigner and a kind of a loser.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Will Hurd to make a decision soon:

Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd of Texas was also in New Hampshire earlier this week – his fourth visit so far this year.

The former CIA spy who was the only Black Republican in the U.S. House during his six years in Congress is likely to launch a presidential campaign as early as next week.

https://articles.concordmonitor.com/On-the-Trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-GOP-battles-heating-up-as-Trump-faces-new-indictment-51337241

But he already said so a month ago in previous interviews, and nothing happened...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Will Hurd to make a decision soon:

Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd of Texas was also in New Hampshire earlier this week – his fourth visit so far this year.

The former CIA spy who was the only Black Republican in the U.S. House during his six years in Congress is likely to launch a presidential campaign as early as next week.

https://articles.concordmonitor.com/On-the-Trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-GOP-battles-heating-up-as-Trump-faces-new-indictment-51337241

But he already said so a month ago in previous interviews, and nothing happened...

Will Hurd is apparently doing his best Joe Biden circa 2016 impersonation.

Yes, the same is true for Bolton and Rogers: they all said that they will anounce a run or no run, first in March, then April, then May, then by June and so forth.

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Running:

Burgum
Castro
Christie
DeSantis
Elder
Haley
Hurd
Hutchinson
Johnson
Laffey
Pence
Ramaswamy
Scott
Stapleton
Suarez
Trump

Decision expected by Friday:

Rogers

Potential candidates:

Abbott
Bolton
Kemp
Noem
Perry
Youngkin

Source: Wikipedia

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July 2023 UPDATE:

Running:

Biden
Exotic
Kennedy
Williamson

Burgum
Castro
Christie
DeSantis
Elder
Haley
Hurd
Hutchinson
Johnson
Laffey
Pence
Ramaswamy
Scott
Stapleton
Suarez
Trump

Potential candidates:

Manchin

Bolton
Kemp
Perry
Rogers
Youngkin

Source:

Wikipedia (D)
Wikipedia (R)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

There is a speculation that Virginia Governor Youngkin could jump in as late as November or early December.

He would only miss the Nevada filing deadline if he jumps in so late, and it won't mean anything really because Republicans are going to boycott the Nevada primary anyway and hold a caucus later.

My question: if Youngkin runs after the November elections in Virginia, would he have to resign as Governor, or can he stay in office and run for President at the same time?

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Does anyone know if Youngkin would have to resign as Governor in November to run for President, or does Virginia allow him to remain Governor - like Florida does? It would make a big difference.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Earliest filing deadline is coming up soon:

Oct. 1-15: Republican candidates have to file for the 8 February 2024 Nevada caucus

Youngkin, Kemp (and others who might still join the race) are going to miss this deadline ...

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If Youngkin jumped in on November 8th, the day after the VA Legislative elections, he'd miss the NV (Oct 15th) and SC (Oct 31st) GOP filing deadlines but still (barely) make the next set of deadlines, AL (Nov 10th) and AR (Nov 14th). If he waited a week he'd miss those too.

Missing these 4 small-state deadlines wouldn't impact Youngkin's campaign.

But he definitely needs to get in by December when the CA and TX filing deadlines are coming up, along with several other big states.

But I believe Youngkin won't get in, because Trump is 99% unbeatable right now.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The NH filing period has been set for October 11 through October 27:

https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/filing-period-announcement-for-web.pdf

A date for the NH primaries has not been set.

Filing on the Democratic side will be more interesting than on the Republican side, because NH Democrats are still in disarray over Biden filing or not. The latest I have read is that Biden won't file and NH Democrats will organize a write-in campaign for him.

Democrats have nothing to say in NH when it comes to election administration, because Republicans are in charge of the state legislature, the Secretary of State and the Governor.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The NH filing period has been set for October 11 through October 27:

https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/filing-period-announcement-for-web.pdf

A date for the NH primaries has not been set.

Filing on the Democratic side will be more interesting than on the Republican side, because NH Democrats are still in disarray over Biden filing or not. The latest I have read is that Biden won't file and NH Democrats will organize a write-in campaign for him.

Democrats have nothing to say in NH when it comes to election administration, because Republicans are in charge of the state legislature, the Secretary of State and the Governor.

Besides NH, the earliest filing period is in Nevada - which is already ongoing.

Candidates for the Feb. 8 Republican caucus can register with the NV GOP between Sept. 1 and Oct. 15

In SC, the filing deadline is Oct. 31

Iowa has no filing period, at least none that I am aware of. I think the Republican and Democratic state parties in Iowa will just announce at some points which candidates they consider "major" and these candidates are the ones people can caucus for.

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The door for a late-entry is now closing very fast:

In about one month, filing deadlines for CA, TX, OH, NC, TN, MA and others will have passed and it will become practically impossible afterwards for a late-entry candidate to win a majority of delegates in the remaining contests.

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No Labels might as well give their ballot access to RFK Jr., who has basically done a Tulsi Gabbard style "ultra-reactionary Democrat" swing dance anyway.

What ballot access? Are they on the ballot in any states?

NoLapels is on the ballot in 14 states as of today.