The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[LostInOhio]

The Guardian has an "interesting" piece on Tucker Carlson. I had no idea he was flirting with the idea or in Iowa until I dropped by the Guardian website. From there you can click on an NYT article that does a  deep dive into Carlson's mining of white fear for ratings and profits. Nothing else boosted his ratings, and Fox's profits, with nearly as much efficacy, as the threat people of color pose to the American dream.

Oh yeah, of course he is saying he won't run. He will keep saying that and raking in the big bucks until he announces.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/16/tucker-carlson-family-leadership-summit-president

If Biden wins in ‘24, I could see him running against Harris in ‘28. It’ll be like a 2016 redux.

In fact, I don’t think the 2016 election ever really ended and will just be repeated in perpetuity by both parties

[LostInOhio]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AshleyRParker/status/1550214521117184002

One of the few most constant rules of American politics is that the VPs of one-term administrations almost always get blown out either in the primary or in the general. Walter Mondale, Dan Quayle, John C. Breckenridge, etc.

He’ll get third in Iowa and drop out

[LostInOhio]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1559727777737330688

She’s definitely no Abraham Lincoln. I’m a Democrat and feel that this is the equivalent of Republicans speculating about Tulsi Gabbard winning the Democratic nomination in ‘24 or something.

Her running would siphon more votes from Biden than it would from Trump. The 2020 election was arguably won by moderate Republicans turning away from Trump. Those people would almost certainly vote for Cheney rather than Biden or Trump if given the choice

[LostInOhio]

Youngkin/Scott is by far the strongest ticket they could put up. They’d win back the suburbs and be able to reclaim the rust belt from Biden. But they won’t, because their party has no clue how to think strategically like the Democrats do. So Trump and a narrow Biden win once again it is!

[LostInOhio]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

I disagree. Harris is the sitting VP and has a lot of popularity with Black voters, who are the base of the Democratic Party and largely decide the nominee. They are not going to vote for a random red state Governor.

[LostInOhio]

The GOP establishment really needs to make some phone calls and convince Pence not to run. It’s a waste of time and he has to know that he’ll only sap voters from DeSantis and wreck their only chance at defeating Trump.

[LostInOhio]

https://twitter.com/mccormickjohn/status/1662032016785784832?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

He looks like a president from a movie, but not like one where the president is prominently featured

Cory Booker and Mitt Romney also had this same problem IMO

[LostInOhio]

There is a LOT of Twitter chatter/rumors that pence’s iowa campaign will be run by legendary iowa radio host/evangelical Bartleby Van Ookerstok

Would be a big hire for western Dutch areas of the state

I said that name out loud and now the furniture in my house is floating.

[LostInOhio]

Harris is going to be the likely nominee should Biden (unlikely) experience a health problem that causes him to drop out of the election. It’s not going to be Gavin Newsom or Cory Booker. People who say things like that really don’t understand how the Democratic Party operates.

Moreover I’d say that she’s highly likely (90% chance IMO) to be the 2028 nominee if Biden wins as well. But that’s a discussion reserved for the 2028 forum - maybe I’ll post a thread detailing why I feel so confidently about this when that board opens up.

[LostInOhio]

There is a speculation that Virginia Governor Youngkin could jump in as late as November or early December.

He would only miss the Nevada filing deadline if he jumps in so late, and it won't mean anything really because Republicans are going to boycott the Nevada primary anyway and hold a caucus later.

My question: if Youngkin runs after the November elections in Virginia, would he have to resign as Governor, or can he stay in office and run for President at the same time?

I would seriously question his intelligence if he did something so stupid. I'd also question his team because nobody tried to step in to stop him.

Like the rest of this field he should just wait until 2028 after Trump loses in '24. He'd be a genuinely great candidate for them then, looks & acts very presidential, decent amount of charisma, comes off as a moderate, doesn't make MAGA people mad etc. Far better than DeSantis.

[LostInOhio]

The GOP actively wants Trump or someone like him. Everything non-Republicans think is a liability against him is actually an asset. After Trump isn’t around in 2028 they’ll likely coalesce behind the next Trumpian figure they find, probably Tucker Carlson if he runs (50/50 at this point) or maybe even Kari Lake.

[LostInOhio]

If Youngkin jumped in on November 8th, the day after the VA Legislative elections, he'd miss the NV (Oct 15th) and SC (Oct 31st) GOP filing deadlines but still (barely) make the next set of deadlines, AL (Nov 10th) and AR (Nov 14th). If he waited a week he'd miss those too.

Youngkin isn’t getting in the race. He would poll at like 2% and then drop out a month or two later. There is no stopping Trump, he is the Republican Party now.

[LostInOhio]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like.

It's because he's a winner. Ettingermentum puts him in B tier here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-republican-party-presidential

Youngkin, a 56-year old former CEO of the Carlyle Group (yes, the same one from Fahrenheit 9/11), has only run in one election of his life, but that race needs no introduction. Almost exactly one year after Biden won the commonwealth of Virginia by 10%, Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by two points in the state’s extremely high-profile gubernatorial contest in 2021. This win immediately rocketed Youngkin into the national spotlight, not just because he won in a blue state (although that was impressive enough by itself) but in the way in which he won. While the standard Republican playbook in blue states has always been to compromise on social issues, Youngkin managed to win while centering his campaign around a set of right-wing culture war attacks. It was a massively invigorating result for a Republican Party that had been struggling mightily in places exactly like Virginia for years, and led them to place his strategy at the core of their efforts in the 2022 midterms.

A year and a half later, however, Youngkin still stands alone as the sole Republican to win anything close to a competitive race off of the platform he pioneered. Attempts to take his hysterical campaign style nationally would fail so disastrously that some have already begun dismissing his 2021 win as a fluke. While I wouldn’t go that far—no Republican can win in a state like Virginia simply off of luck alone—it’s also undeniable that Youngkin benefited tremendously from factors outside of his control. The most important of these was timing. His election occurring in November 2021 meant that he was able to benefit from one event that massively helped Republicans—the fall of Kabul and the collapse of Biden’s approval ratings—while avoiding the impact of the Dobbs ruling, which massively harmed Republicans. If his race occurred before the former event, he almost certainly loses. If it occurred after the latter one, he likely loses as well.

And you don’t even have to look into hypotheticals to see that Youngkin’s ability to overperform Trump in November 2021 wasn’t a unique one. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for Governor in New Jersey, whose election was on the same day as Youngkin, actually had a larger overperformance in his race than Youngkin did in his, despite running against a popular incumbent. Because of just how favorable this environment was, Youngkin was never forced to face the sort of hard questions on issues like Trump and abortion that will make or break his viability on the national stage. While the national political media is very far from perfect, I find it doubtful that they will let him slide on as nearly as many issues as local Virginia media did during his race in 2021.

He also rates Tim Scott and Brian Kemp as B Tier as well. There are no credible Republican Presidential contenders in A tier or S tier.

This is assuming that the GOP base voters are capable of strategic thinking but they are not. Democrats didn’t love Biden but voted for him specifically to beat Trump. Maybe in 2028 they’ll go with Youngkin to beat Harris - that’s what I’d personally advise them to do - but they’re more likely to nominate a whacko they love like Kari Lake or Matt Gaetz and lose instead.

For some reason they seem to have interpreted their two losses to Obama as being because they went with more moderate candidates when in reality nobody they nominated would ever be able to defeat Obama. Nobody.