The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Heebie Jeebie]

Hogan is way too liberal for the GOP and would be lucky to get 1% of the vote in Iowa.

His anti-Trump stances are going to be a non-starter for GOP primary voters.

I don't think Hogan is necessarily too liberal.  I mean, Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee just two cycles ago.  I just don't see how Hogan is supposed to beat the competition.  What exactly makes him more electable than Mike Pence, a man with 1,000% more name recognition?

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1368927726049124354

[Heebie Jeebie]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.

I expect him to tease it, but ultimately not run, he seems to love having the spotlight, but doesn't actually like doing much, becoming a GOP primary kingmaker would allow him to do just that.

I tend to agree, but Trump also likes grift.  If he thinks being the nominee would be a more profitable swindle, he might go for it.

[Heebie Jeebie]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

Staying would have meant an end to the relative stability of the last several months and a return to the ferocious fighting of before.  Biden would have had to oversee a massive troop build-up in Afghanistan just to hold what we had, let alone turn the tide (don't forget that the Taliban had been gaining territory all through Trump's administration).  Do you really think that would have been the better position?

[Heebie Jeebie]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

Staying would have meant an end to the relative stability of the last several months and a return to the ferocious fighting of before.  Biden would have had to oversee a massive troop build-up in Afghanistan just to hold what we had, let alone turn the tide (don't forget that the Taliban had been gaining territory all through Trump's administration).  Do you really think that would have been the better position?

Not practically, but politically. Americans haven't cared about the war in Afghanistan probably since Bin Laden was killed. So it really would have done little harm to not rock the boat on the situation, even if it was still an absolute waste.

We, as a nation, are in such a dire moment in our history where every political decision that attracts the attention of the media cycle can be consequential to our future being anywhere close to sustainable as a republic. And today's terrorist attack, on top of an already messy situation, just becomes another threat that the increasingly autocratic Republican Party can utilize for their nefarious ends of gaining and maintaining power at all costs.

I guess what I'm suggesting is that there was no choice but to rock the boat in some way.  Leaving gave us what we've been watching unfold.  It's a mess, but there's a clear end to it on the way.  But staying would require a giant surge of troops and a regular, elevated body count for...what?  Several more months?  Years?  Decades?  Again, the relative stability of the last several months was extremely fragile, only the result of Taliban restraint as they waited for us to withdraw.

[Heebie Jeebie]

haha, I'm sure Christie and Haley are glad they degraded themselves to stay in Trump's graces.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Warren was asked if she’d run for president in 2024, and she said she “expects to support” Biden for ’24.  But then when asked what she’ll do if he doesn’t run, she interestingly dodged the question, by just saying “Joe Biden is running”:

https://www.metrowestdailynews.com/story/news/2021/09/05/liz-warren-holds-firm-2024-saying-she-only-eyeing-senate/5673317001/

when asked by the Daily News before Monday's event in Franklin whether she intended to make another attempt for the presidency, Warren simply responded: "Joe Biden is running for president and I expect to support him."

And when queried about what would happen if Biden chose not to seek a second term, Warren replied, “Joe Biden is running.”  

I've been of the belief that if Biden isn't going to run, Harris is going to have a harder road to the primary than she thinks, and that's if she runs. Harris will probably be begged to come back to California and primary Feinstein/run in an open seat Senate race, especially if 2024 looks like a lost cause atop the ballot.

Whether that impacts any decision by Warren, I have no idea.

Im not sure there will be pressure for Harris to primary Feinstein I'm pretty sure Feinstein will retire. But I agree if Biden doesn't run I don't see what's stopping AOC Buttigieg and Warren from running who could pose very serious threats to Harris. A dark horse could also hop in like maybe JBE or Eric Adams.

Harris is of the far left.  If there's a primary challenge that has any chance of gaining traction, I think it is overwhelmingly likely to come from the center, not from someone like Warren or AOC.

I don't think it's likely, but it would be fascinating to see Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker challenge Harris.

[Heebie Jeebie]

DeSantis goes on Hannity, says he's too busy to be focusing on a Presidential run right now.

“I notice the media, no matter how many times you’ve answered the question about are you considering the run for the presidency in 2024 and you give the same answer, that they still keep asking you,” Hannity said before asking that very same question: “What’s your answer to those people that ask again and again?”

“Yeah, I’m not considering anything beyond doing my job, we got a lot of stuff going on in Florida,” DeSantis asserted, adding that he will be running for re-election as governor next year.

As for what he feels needs his attention in Florida, DeSantis immediately leaned into the culture war issues that have energized conservatives over the past year.

“We are also working on a lot of things in the state beyond the governor’s race, we got school board races,” he declared. “I want to make sure people are not supporting critical race theory!”



After saying he wants to make sure “parents have the ability to send their kids to school the way they want to,” seemingly referencing his court fights over local school mask mandates, DeSantis reiterated that he isn’t focusing his attention on 2024.

“There’s a lot of huge issues, that is way down the road, it’s not anything that I’m planning for,” he concluded.

Too busy neglecting his state's health and public safety.

No, actively sabotaging his state's health and public safety.

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/kwqcnews/status/1443970769864863748

[Heebie Jeebie]

Trump says he’s confident of winning the nomination if he runs:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/03/trump-desantis-2024-beat-him-514975

In an interview with Yahoo Finance set to be published Monday, Trump said he believed that “most people would drop out” if he entered the race, including DeSantis, an ally of the former president who has been considered a potential candidate in the Republican presidential primary.

“If I faced him, I'd beat him like I would beat everyone else,” Trump said.
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In the interview, Trump expressed confidence in his ability to easily clinch the nomination should he run, citing his support among the Republican base, but said he was not yet ready to commit to doing so.

“If I do run, I think that I’ll do extremely well,” he said, adding that he based his predictions on both polling and “enthusiasm” from voters.

I mean, his take is probably not untrue...

I don't expect Trump to say will he or won't he until he starts hitting primary ballot access deadlines, which is when, Q4 2023? This is going to paralyze everyone else as far as fundraising unless you're a Larry Hogan that would run anyway.

If I were Biden, I'd be thrilled by this. 

[Heebie Jeebie]

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