I have this deep gut instinct that Trump will not ultimately run. He will tease it, he may even continue doing rallies and selling merch and talking about why the country needs him, but he hates being President.
My gut instinct with Trump is he will either do as you say and heavily tease at running over the next few years complete with rallies, media appearances, etc. before ultimately declining to run in late 2023
or he will go full steam ahead with another presidential campaign and win the primary in a landslide. No in-between.
